British runners face tall order to continue recent trend up against strong Ballydoyle quartet in Queen's Vase

Punters have become accustomed to just backing Aidan O’Brien’s runners and walking away with a profit after this race as the trainer has won it seven times. However, that strategy hasn’t paid off in recent years and British yards have dominated every running since 2021.

In fact, since the race distance was changed from 2m in 2016 to a less-demanding 1m6f in 2017, the prize has stayed at home five times in seven runnings, and among the British winners were multiple Group 1 scorers Stradivarius and Eldar Eldarov.

It seems that the switch of distance has brought about a change in attitude among the British trainers, who are now more willing to run better-quality horses and that has meant a race that was once farmed by O’Brien’s Derby castoffs is no longer so easy to win for the Irish trainer.

That won’t stop him trying, though, and O’Brien saddles three sons of Galileo this year in the shape of Illinois, Highbury and The Equator. Three of O’Brien’s four winners of the race in the last ten years were Galileo colts and three were ridden by Ryan Moore.

Moore appears to have chosen Illinois, another Derby castoff who missed Epsom after falling short in his trial at Lingfield. However, he did bump into Ambiente Friendly, who went on to finish second in the Derby, and that looks strong form now.

Many were surprised to see Moore on Illinois as Highbury has been the ante-post favourite since his wide-margin victory in a Leopardstown maiden last month. However, Wayne Lordan has ridden Highbury on both starts and maybe that is why he is in the saddle again.

All of the British horses are double-figure odds overnight bar Meydaan, who won the Cocked Hat Stakes at Goodwood. O’Brien evidently has an outstanding chance to regain his grip on the race.
Race analysis by Graeme Rodway

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O'Brien bidding to match Cecil record

Aidan O'Brien will saddle a third of the field as he bids to equal Sir Henry Cecil's record of eight wins in the Queen's Vase.

Last successful with future Irish Derby winner Santiago in 2020, O'Brien fields four runners in the Group 2, including market leaders Illinois and Highbury.

Ryan Moore, just one win away from equalling jockey George Fordham's record of six victories in the race during the 19th century, has chosen to ride likely favourite Illinois, who finished second to subsequent Derby runner-up Ambiente Friendly at Lingfield last month despite appearing to struggle on the undulating track.

Ascot should be more to his liking and O'Brien has been pleased with how his preparation has gone since Lingfield.

"We're happy with Illinois," said the trainer. "He ran well in the Lingfield Derby Trial and the winner went on to be second in the Derby so that form looks good. He's come out of the race in good order."

Highbury appeared to improve significantly for the drier ground to run out a decisive winner on his second start at Leopardstown last month, when stamina looked to be his strong suit.

"It was only a maiden Highbury won at Leopardstown but he did it very nicely and seems to stay well," said O'Brien.

Sir Henry Cecil: winner of the Queen's Vase a record eight timesCredit: Edward Whitaker (racingpost.com/photos)

Birdman ready to swoop

The biggest challenge to O'Brien may come from another trainer based in Ireland with Jessica Harrington saddling the unbeaten Birdman, as she bids for a first win in the Queen's Vase.

The son of Free Eagle created quite an impression on his debut at Cork, when kicking clear to win a 1m4f maiden on his belated debut in April, and he improved again to land a Listed race over an extra furlong at Navan last month.

On his chances, Harrington said: "This has been the plan since he won at Navan and he seems in great order. I'm very happy with him. He's only run twice, so he's still inexperienced, but he has done everything right so far."

What they say

Michael Bell, trainer of Lavender Hill Mob
He's not necessarily bred to stay, but his style of racing gives him every chance. He's a very good mover so hopefully the ground won't be an issue and, if he does stay, he's going to be very competitive.

Ed Crisford, joint-trainer of Meydaan
He's stepping up to a mile and six, which we think will suit him at some stage in his career, but whether it's now we're not sure. We've chosen this over the King Edward VII Stakes and he deserves to take his chance.

Oisin Murphy, rider of Mina Rashid
He won at Chester last time and will improve for the step up in distance, but it's a competitive race.

Dominic Ffrench Davis, trainer of Mr Hampstead
He was flat out the whole way in the Derby and his jockey looked after him when his chance had gone. He's come out of it really well and is crying out for the step up in trip. If he is a Group 1 horse it will be down the line in something like the Gold Cup, and I think he will get a proper trip one day.

Thady Gosden, joint-trainer of Pappano
It's a competitive race but he's always shaped as if he would improve for the step up in trip. He's not drawn the best, but hopefully he can drop in and find a nice position.

Owen Burrows, trainer of See The Green
It's an ambitious plan and it's going to be tough, but we feel the mile and six trip will see him in a better light.
Reporting by Lewis Porteous

Read our previews for day two of Royal Ascot:

2.30 Ascot: 'She's as fast a two-year-old as I've ever sent to Royal Ascot' - Queen Mary analysis and quotes

3.45 Ascot: Will the Duke of Cambridge switch to the round course help Laurel make a winning return for the Gosdens?

4.25 Ascot: 'We've had the Prince of Wales's in mind for him all season' - Aidan O'Brien confident of big show from Auguste Rodin

5.05 Ascot: 'He's been training for this race since last year and he's still unexposed' - key quotes for the Royal Hunt Cup

5.40 Ascot: 'She's not going there as a social runner' - quotes and analysis for an all-new Kensington Palace Stakes

6.15 Ascot: 'He has pace and we thought this was the right race for him' - which Aidan O'Brien runner is fancied in the Windsor Castle?