'This race is his best chance of a festival win' - ante-post fancies for the four novice chases at Cheltenham

Entries for the Arkle Chase, National Hunt Chase, Brown Advisory Novices' Chase and Turners Novices' Chase were revealed on Tuesday and after delving into the ante-post markets we have identified a selection in all four races . . .

Hunters Yarn

Arkle Chase (2.10 Cheltenham, March 12)

Last year's Supreme Novices' Hurdle winner Marine Nationale made a successful chase debut at Leopardstown over Christmas, and since then his price for the Arkle has contracted to a general 4-7.

Facile Vega chased Barry Connell's star home in the 2023 festival curtain-raiser, but he has questions to answer having failed to beat a rival home in the Grade 1 Racing Post Novice Chase at Leopardstown last month.

There's no doubt that Marine Nationale is the one to beat in this year's Arkle, but at an each-way price, it looks worth opposing him with Hunters Yarn.

The Simon Munir and Isaac Souede-owned seven-year-old finished midfield when well-fancied for the County Hurdle at last year's festival but it may have been a case of too much too soon on just his fifth hurdles start.

Hunters Yarn: impressive winner at Fairyhouse last time outCredit: Patrick McCann

He was sent off the 1-3 favourite for his chase debut at Fairyhouse last month and looked certain to collect when five lengths clear of Sa Fureur - who finished second behind stablemate Quilixios in a competitive novice chase at Navan last week - before crashing out at the final fence.

Hunters Yarn showed no ill effects from that spill, however, when bolting up by ten lengths at Fairyhouse last Saturday afternoon. He was cut to a general 12-1 for the Arkle on the back of that success.

His Fairyhouse victory produced a Topspeed figure of 112 and a Racing Post Rating of 154, figures not far away from the Topspeed of 119 and RPR of 156 that Marine Nationale achieved on his successful chase debut. On that evidence, the price discrepancy between the pair looks too big.

Hunters Yarn14:10 Cheltenham

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Jky: Tnr: W P Mullins

Corbetts Cross

National Hunt Chase (5.30 Cheltenham, March 12)

The National Hunt Chase looks the most open of the four novice chases at the festival, yet if Corbetts Cross was to take up his entry there's little doubt that he'd go off a lot shorter than current odds of 10-1.

Corbetts Cross was a progressive novice hurdler for Emmet Mullins last season, still looking well in contention when running out at the last in the Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle.

He got off the mark at the second time of asking over fences when staying on best to land a 2m5½f beginners chase at Fairyhouse last month. He finished ahead of the likes of Three Card Brag and Nick Rockett there, horses who are positioned towards the head of the betting for the National Hunt Chase, and he did appear to win with far more in hand than the three-quarter-length margin implies.

Mark Walsh on board Corbetts Cross collides with the rails before the last in the Albert Bartlett

Corbetts Cross: crashed out when still in contention in last year's Albert BartlettCredit: Ryan Pierse

On his starts on either side of that Fairyhouse success, Corbetts Cross has bumped into Grangeclare West, finishing nine and a quarter lengths behind Willie Mullins' runner at Naas in November and six lengths behind when favourite for last month's Grade 1 Neville Hotels Novice Chase at Leopardstown.

There seems no obvious reason for Corbetts Cross to reverse form with the Brown Advisory bound Grangeclare West, so the best chance of him gaining a festival win appears to come in the National Hunt Chase.

Corbetts Cross17:30 Cheltenham

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Jky: Tnr: Emmet Mullins

Fact To File

Brown Advisory Novices' Chase (2.10 Cheltenham, March 13)

Willie Mullins holds a strong hand in this year's Brown Advisory Novices' Chase with favourite Grangeclare West and Fact To File, and of those two it is the generally bigger priced runner that is fancied to come out on top.

The JP McManus-owned seven-year-old was one of the best bumper horses in training last season, finding only A Dream To Share too strong in the Champion Bumper at the festival, and connections took the unorthodox decision to send him straight over fences this campaign.

Although beaten at odds-on for his chase debut at Navan in November, Fact To File clearly learned a great deal from the experience and looked a completely different proposition when sauntering to a 17-length victory in a beginners chase at Leopardstown next time out. That race has a habit of throwing up a good winner, with subsequent Grade 1-winning chasers Galopin Des Champs and Gentlemansgame successful in recent runnings.

Fact To File: brilliant in the beginners chase

Fact To File: very impressive winner at Leopardstown last time outCredit: Alan Crowhurst

Mullins has always held Fact To File in the highest esteem and the RPR of 160 he achieved with victory at Leopardstown is just 3lb below The Real Whacker's winning RPR in last year's Brown Advisory.

He is a horse of serious potential and should be the outright favourite for this contest.

Fact To File14:20 Cheltenham

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Jky: Tnr: W P Mullins

Hermes Allen

Turners Novices' Chase (1.30 Cheltenham, March 14)

Gaelic Warrior didn't have to come out of second gear to land the Grade 1 Faugheen Novice Chase at Limerick over Christmas and there's no surprise to see him priced prohibitively for the Turners Novices' Chase on the back of that success.

His connections have previously voiced concerns on how he appears far better suited to right-handed tracks than the left-handed Cheltenham, however, and he has been beaten at the last two festivals when both jumping and hanging out to his right.

With that in mind, it does look worth chancing something against him, and with the majority of those towards the top of the market unlikely runners, Hermes Allen is backed to outrun odds of 14-1.

Hermes Allen: likely to go to Kempton on Boxing Day

Hermes Allen: should appreciate dropping back in trip for the Turners Novices' ChaseCredit: Edward Whitaker

He was backed into 9-4 favourite for last year's Ballymore Novices' Hurdle, where he finished a disappointing sixth, but he had previously won the Grade 1 Challow Novices' Hurdle at Newbury easily from subsequent Mares' Novices' Hurdle winner You Wear It Well.

Hermes Allen made a successful chase debut in a 2m4f Grade 2 at Newbury last month before finding Il Est Francais too strong in the Kauto Star Novices' Chase over 3m at Kempton on Boxing Day. The trip at Kempton appeared to stretch his stamina reserves and his connections will be relieved to hear that the French raider is unlikely to take him on again at Cheltenham.

Dropping back to this intermediate distance should suit Hermes Allen and he also represents last year's Turners winning trainer Paul Nicholls.