Premier racing half-term report: affordability checks blamed for drop in average turnover at major festivals

The BHA on Wednesday blamed affordability checks for worrying figures showing average betting turnover per fixture at the major festivals has fallen 12.4 per cent in the last year.

Halfway through the two-year trial of Premier racing full-year figures for 2024 were released, with total betting turnover down 6.8 per cent year-on-year and 16.5 per cent compared to 2023.

Explaining the data in a blog, BHA director of racing Richard Wayman wrote: "I’ve no doubt that these are headed by the impact of affordability checks and the extent to which they have resulted in people either stopping betting or placing their bets with unlicensed operators where such checks don’t take place.

"More positively, the decline in total betting turnover since August has slowed to less than one per cent, albeit with more races run compared with the same period in 2023, the average race turnover is down by just over four per cent. It is obviously our hope that these improved trends in the final few months of 2024 continue into 2025."

The major festivals represent the sport's greatest opportunity to connect with a wider fanbase and the marked decline is unwelcome news given the added focus on the top-end product.

Wayman added: "We believe there were a number of factors contributing to this including competitiveness issues and the abandonment of a race at Cheltenham, the Grand National being run earlier in the afternoon, and Royal Ascot clashing with the Euros. In addition, there have been fewer concessions and promotions offered to customers at these major meetings which the bookmakers have said is largely in response to rising costs.

"The performance at the other Premier racedays was generally better than the rest of the fixture list with the decline on Saturdays averaging 3.8 per cent, existing meetings on other days of the week 3.4 per cent and at new meetings 2.9 per cent.

"So, while acknowledging that all the different categories show betting numbers in decline, away from the major festivals, the relative performance at Premier racedays is better than the remainder of the fixture list."

Richard Wayman: decline in numbers of quality performers on the Flat and over jumps "a major issue"

Wayman also described the nine per cent decline in jumps horses rated 130+ over jumps as "clearly a major issue". The target was for a 2.5 per cent increase (and five per cent rated 85+ on the Flat) and Wayman wrote: "This target has not been met under either code, albeit there has been contrasting results.

"2,052 individual Flat horses achieved a BHA performance figure of at least 85 during 2024. This is up from 1,983 in 2023, thereby representing an increase of 3.5 per cent, just short of our five per cent target. The situation over jumps is much more concerning with the number of horses running to a BHA performance figure of at least 130 declining from 787 to 716, or nine per cent.

"This is clearly a major issue, particularly as it continues a trend that stretches back to 2020-21. While adjustments to the handicapping rating file starting in 2021 will have contributed to these bare numbers, there is clearly much more going on here, particularly around the supply chain of quality jump horses to and within Britain.

"This is a key area of focus for the BHA and others across the sport as we develop plans that seek to reverse this decline. Of course, that won’t happen overnight – not least given the time-lag between foaling and racing jump horses in particular – but there are steps we can take to support our owners, trainers and breeders in growing the number of high-quality jump horses bred and trained in Britain.

"A programme of work aimed at addressing this issue is under way, with a progress report to follow later in 2025."

More positively, of the targets the two around attendance, the one regarding clashing races and the three around field sizes were largely met and prize-money targets for Premier cards were smashed, with total prize money at Premier meetings increased by £7.33m, albeit this was partially at the expense of core fixtures. 

Wayman added: "In total, prize-money at core fixtures fell by £3.64m, with the overall increase in total prize-money therefore being £3.69m."

The BHA's stated target is for total prize-money at the remainder of the fixture list to return to close to their current levels by 2025.

Premierisation report card

Changes to British racing's fixture list, headlined by the introduction of Premier race meetings, were introduced at the start of 2024 and measured against key targets. So how have they performed?

Target 1: Total betting turnover on the 33 Saturdays with only three fixtures in the protected window to outperform the other 19 Saturdays by 6 to 7 per cent
Outcome: Too difficult to measure
Mark: SPOILED PAPER

Target 2: Total betting turnover on Sunday evening fixtures to outperform midweek (Tuesday to Thursday) floodlit fixtures by 15 to 20 per cent
Outcome: 3.6 per cent rise
Mark: FAIL

Target 3: Slow the decline in betting across the entire fixture list compared with 2023, with Premier racedays showing 1-2 per cent better relative performance than the remainder of the fixture list
Outcome: Average Premier fixture turnover down 7.5 per cent, Core 5.9 per cent
Mark: FAIL

Target 4: Halt the decline in total attendances at Premier fixtures in 2024 and then increasing by 5-10 per cent in 2025 versus 2023
Outcome: Total attendance, down by 0.7 per cent, average attendance up by 0.4 per cent.
Mark: FAIL

Target 5: With 41 Saturdays moving from their traditional start times and four fewer fixtures, that Saturday attendances will have recovered to within 25,000 of their current levels by 2025
Outcome: Average Saturday crowd dropped from 6,497 in 2023 to 6,480 in 2024
Mark: REPORT BACK NEXT YEAR

Target 6: Recognising the impact on those streaming, watching the racing channels or for customers in betting shop, the target is to reduce the number of clashing races on Saturday afternoons in 2024 from 8 per cent to 5 per cent
Outcome: Drop from 7.9 per cent in 2023 to 5.8 per cent in 2024
Mark: FAIL

Target 7: Increase the number of horses who race in Britain by 2.5 per cent by 2025 compared with 2023
Outcome: A total of 1 per cent fewer horses ran in 2024 compared to 2023
Mark: REPORT BACK NEXT YEAR

Target 8: Increase the number of horses rated 85+ on Flat and 130+ over jumps. On the Flat, to increase by 5 per cent in 2024 and a further 5 per cent in 2025. Over jumps, to increase by 2.5 per cent in 2024 and a further 2.5 per cent in 2025
Outcome: Increase on Flat of 3.5 per cent, decrease over jumps by 9 per cent
Mark: FAIL

Target 9: Total prize-money at Premier fixtures to increase by £6-7m in 2024 and for total prize-money at the remainder of the fixture list to return to close to their current levels by 2025
Outcome: Total prize-money at Premier racedays increased by £7.33m
Mark: PASS

Target 10: Grow average field sizes at Premier and core fixtures in 2024, both Flat and jumps, compared with 2023
Outcome: Better than last year 2023 over both codes
Mark: PASS

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