2023 Lockinge Stakes at Newbury: assessing the top six contenders for Saturday's big race
The Al Shaqab Lockinge Stakes (3.35 Newbury, Saturday) takes centre stage this weekend and provides some early season pointers to the mile division, with Palace Pier and Baaeed winning the race in the last two years. Here we assess six of the leading contenders for the Group 1 and provide a big-race verdict . . .
Modern Games
Form: 2121-2
Strengths: Unbeaten in two starts at the Breeders' Cup, winning the Mile at Keeneland on his final run of last year.
Mainly raced overseas in 2022 but two fine efforts in defeat in Britain, finishing second to Baaeed in the Sussex Stakes – his best domestic effort on Racing Post Ratings – and filling the same spot behind Bayside Boy in the Queen Elizabeth II Stakes at Ascot.
Dry forecast in his favour as his top three RPRs have been recorded on good to firm or quicker, although he is a top-level winner on good to soft.
Weaknesses: Beaten on his return at Keeneland last month when second in the Maker's Mark Mile. The form has been franked – the third has since won at the top level in the US – but Modern Games ran to a RPR of 112 and he had achieved higher figures on seven of his previous eight starts.
Odds: 5-2f
What they say
Charlie Appleby, trainer (following return Keeneland second): "We are obviously disappointed to get beaten on his return but Modern Games has run a gallant race. He made up a lot of ground in the straight, although the winner had already flown. It was a good, solid run and I am confident that Modern Games is still the same horse that we had last year."
Laurel
Form: 112-1
Strengths: Steady progress since making her debut in July, winning three of her four starts, and her only defeat came when beaten less than a length in the Royal Bahrain Sun Chariot Stakes at Newmarket on her sole crack at Group 1 company.
Capable of further improvement at four and started the campaign with victory in the Racing TV Snowdrop Fillies' Stakes at Kempton last month, recording comfortably the highest RPR in the Listed race in the last decade.
Weaknesses: Unproven against the opposite sex – this will be her first start out of fillies-only company.
It might not have been the strongest Sun Chariot last year, with the top two in the betting performing under par, so this will be a bigger test of her top-level credentials.
Odds: 7-2
What they say
John Gosden, joint-trainer (following return Kempton win): "Ryan [Moore] was very happy with Laurel and said he liked her a lot. She was very immature as a two-year-old, but is learning all the time. The Duke of Cambridge at Royal Ascot would be an obvious target but it's what we do between then and now."
My Prospero
Form: 11313-
Strengths: A top talent for William Haggas, he ended last season with a career-best third behind Bay Bridge in the Qipco Champion Stakes at Ascot on the back of a three-month absence.
My Prospero finished a neck third in the St James's Palace won by Coroebus at Royal Ascot and looks more than capable of winning at the top level. He won a maiden over course and distance on his second start in April last year.
Weaknesses: Unlike Modern Games and Laurel, this will be My Prospero's first start of the year. Four of the last ten winners struck on their reappearance, albeit three of those were favourites.
He potentially could be better suited by 1m2f, with his final two starts of last season coming over that trip.
Odds: 5-1
What they say
William Haggas, trainer (following Champions Day third): "My Prospero ran a mighty race. Maybe next year he can have a good season."
Tribalist
Form: 312-11
Strengths: Started this year in good form, beating The Revenant in a Group 3 at Saint-Cloud before an easy Group 2 success at the same track.
His RPRs suggest he is much improved, and he was only two lengths behind Modern Games in the French 2,000 Guineas last year.
Weaknesses: Unraced on quicker than good to soft, although Andre Fabre does not believe a sounder surface will be an issue.
A big career-best effort is required despite his improvement this year and having race fitness on side.
Odds: 7-1
Mutasaabeq
Form: 3241-1
Strengths: Returned with a career-best victory when giving 3lb and a beating to Native Trail in the rescheduled bet365 Mile at Newmarket this month.
Is unbeaten in two starts since fitted with blinkers, making all on the Rowley Mile on both occasions, and owner is seeking back-to-back Lockinge wins following Baaeed's success last year.
Weaknesses: Likely bigger field than he is used to and may not get an uncontested lead. He was seventh on his sole start in Group 1 company in the 2,000 Guineas in 2021 and has largely plied his trade in Group 2s since.
Odds: 7-1
What they say
Charlie Hills, trainer (following return Newmarket win): "Mutasaabeq has done that well and with a penalty too, so we're delighted. He's beaten some really good horses and Jim [Crowley] has let him get into a good rhythm. He does love it at Newmarket and the headgear has helped. We'll look at the Lockinge now, he's beautifully bred and the season rather maps itself out with him."
Light Infantry
Form: 9226-3
Strengths: Wasn't disgraced when ninth in last year's 2,000 Guineas and has proven himself as a top-level performer since, having lost by just over a length to Tenebrism in the Prix Jean Prat before going down by a neck to Inspiral in the Prix Jacques le Marois in a pair of Group 1s in Deauville last year.
Has won on both soft and good ground, and performed very well on his sole start at this track, winning the Group 3 Horris Hill, when he had subsequent Jersey Stakes winner Noble Truth four and a half lengths behind him.
Weaknesses: His reappearance third gives him a bit to find with Mutasaabeq, who gave him 3lb and a three-length beating when winning the bet365 Mile last time.
He hasn't produced anywhere near the level of his second to Inspiral in two subsequent starts and he hasn't won since he was a two-year-old, always seeming to find one too good when tackling top-level company.
Odds: 10-1
What they say
David Simcock, trainer (after reappearance third in the bet365 Mile): "I'm delighted with that and it is a good start. Light Infantry was a little rusty but he stayed on well and went right through the line. I'm really happy. He'll go to the Lockinge next like most of the others and he'll be going over to Australia at some point to race."
Verdict
I'm keen to give another chance to Light Infantry, who would be a much shorter price for the Lockinge if you dismiss his two starts at Newmarket. His ninth in last season's 2,000 Guineas probably came too soon in his development, while Mutasaabeq stole the race from the front in the rearranged bet365 Mile on his return.
Light Infantry was easy to back that day and finished best from a poor position to force Native Trail into a photo-finish for second, with trainer David Simcock stressing beforehand his keenness to get a run into him before the Lockinge. He should be sharper for the run and arriving off a strong pace in a big field will play to his strengths.
Robbie Wilders, tipster
Al Shaqab Lockinge Stakes (3.35 Newbury, Saturday, May 20)
bet365: 5-2 Modern Games, 7-2 Laurel, 5 My Prospero, Tribalist, 7 Jadoomi, Mutasaabeq, Tribalist, 10 Light Infantry, 20 bar
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Read these next:
Ante-post favourite Inspiral out of Lockinge as 16 stand ground for Newbury Group 1
'It's a big jump up' - Gosden camp pin Lockinge hopes on talented and unexposed Laurel
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