NFL tips

Super Bowl 2024 predictions: Best bets for Kansas City Chiefs v San Francisco 49ers plus get 60-1 on the Chiefs to win with Paddy Power

Best bets and predictions for the 2024 NFL Super Bowl between the Kansas City Chiefs and the San Francisco 49ers. Plus, get 60-1 on the Chiefs to win

Paddy Power are offering 60-1 on the Kansas City Chiefs to win the Super Bowl. New customers can click here to claim that offer.

We’ve included instructions on how to claim your offer later on in this article.

Where to watch the Super Bowl in the UK

ITV1 & Sky Sports Main Event, NFL & Showcase, 11.30pm Sunday

What are the odds for the Super Bowl?

The San Francisco 49ers are the 5-6 favourites with the Chiefs at 11-10. 

The 49ers are asked to give up two points on the handicap with the total points line at 47.5. 

Best bets for Super Bowl 2024

Kansas City Chiefs +2.5
3pts 8-11 Betfair, Paddy Power

Under 48.5 points
2pts 5-6 Boyles, Coral, Ladbrokes

T Kelce over 71.5 receiving yards
3pts 10-11 bet365

J Watson anytime touchdown scorer
1pt 13-2 bet365

T Kelce to be MVP
1pt 14-1 Coral, Ladbrokes

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New customers can get 60-1 on the Kansas City Chiefs to win the Super Bowl with Paddy Power

Kansas City Chiefs v San Francisco 49ers Super Bowl predictions

The Kansas City Chiefs can become the first NFL team for 19 years to win back-to-back Super Bowls by beating the San Francisco 49ers at Allegiant Stadium on Sunday night.

The Chiefs are in the big game for the fourth time in five years, winning twice in their previous appearances under head coach Andy Reid and quarterback Patrick Mahomes. They beat the Philadelphia Eagles 38-35 last season but their first victory together was against the 49ers in Miami in 2020.

For much of their latest title defence the Chiefs have not looked at all like a team likely to retain their crown. They won the AFC West for the eighth successive season with a game to spare in the end but were assisted by the implosion of their divisional rivals as the Raiders and Chargers fired their coaches during the season and the Broncos were poor other than a hot streak in the middle of the season.

Even so, an 11-6 regular-season record was their worst performance since 2017 and the character of the team has undoubtedly changed. In the early years of their success, the Chiefs depended on their high-powered offence led by the wizardry of quarterback Mahomes, knowing they had the weapons to overcome the glaring deficiencies in their defence. That has all changed now, though, and the Chiefs defence led by coordinator Steve Spagnuolo, has become a strength. 

The Chiefs ranked second in the league in yards allowed per game in the regular season and they have conceded 11 fewer points in their three playoff games than the 49ers have in just two.

Chris Jones leads the strong Kansas City pass-rush but their secondary is the most improved area of the team with young defensive backs keeping tabs on opposing wide receivers.

All of that is without mentioning Travis Kelce, a tight end you may have heard of. Kelce has attracted more headlines for his relationship with pop icon Taylor Swift than his play this season, but he has burst into top form in the playoffs, with 262 receiving yards and three touchdowns and in the AFC Championship win over the Ravens he caught 11 passes for 116 yards. 

The Chiefs have been let down repeatedly by their depth receivers this season but concentrating on Kelce, impressive rookie Rashee Rice and the efforts of running back Isiah Pacheco has paid off.

The Chiefs will no doubt not mind being made underdogs for this game as they were also slight outsiders when beating the Eagles last season.

In fact, opposing Mahomes is rarely a smart move. He has been the underdog for only 13 games in his career and has a 11-1-1 record against the handicap in those contests. He has won all three of the playoff games for which the Chiefs were outsiders – last year's Super Bowl and the last two rounds of this year's playoffs against the Bills and Ravens.

The 49ers have been considered a Super Bowl-calibre team for several years due to their deep roster but they have lost in the NFC Championship game in each of the last two seasons. They looked a dominant force at times in the regular season, but there were two periods of concern. 

They surprisingly lost three successive games in a rough spell in October, losing to the Browns, Vikings and Bengals, but were back on track with six straight wins before being crushed by the Ravens at home. That was a meeting of the top teams in each conference and the 49ers were humbled 33-19 at home as quarterback Brock Purdy, normally unflappable and accurate, threw four interceptions.

The Niners have also been rattled in both of their playoff games, needing a fourth-quarter rally to beat the Packers in the divisional round before falling 24-7 behind against the Lions in the NFC Championship game. 

With top-notch skill players in wide receivers Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk, tight end George Kittle and elite running back Christian McCaffrey, they will always have a chance of digging themselves out of trouble but it won't be easy if they fall behind against a top defence like the Chiefs'.

Taking the small handicap start is preferred to a straight win bet as a close game is likely and every point could be crucial.

They used to say that defence wins championships in the NFL, but the Chiefs have been good at proving that wrong. This year they may prove it to be completely accurate.

2024 Super Bowl props and specials predictions

Last season's Super Bowl produced 73 points, soaring 23 points over the expected total for the game. However, the previous four season finales had all fallen short of pre-match expectations and that trend could be resumed this year.

The Chiefs and 49ers both have solid defences and points should not come easily in the showpiece game. The 49ers have played slightly more overs than unders this season with an 11-8 record including playoffs, but only six of the Chiefs' 20 games have gone over the expected total as their defence has become one of the top units in the league.

For much of this season, Chiefs' tight end Travis Kelce was having a mediocre campaign by his high standards and he scored only one touchdown in the final nine games of the regular season after starting out with four visits to the end zone in the first six games. 

He has become a star for the team again in the playoffs, however, with 71, 75 and 116 yards in his three postseason games and it's hard to imagine that Patrick Mahomes will stop trying to get him the ball whatever the match situation is. 

His receiving yards line is set at around the 71.5 yards mark for the big game and taking the over should pay.

Those looking for an outside bet on a touchdown scorer might want to take a chance on Chiefs wide receiver Justin Watson. You won't get rich backing Kelce or running backs Christian McCaffrey and Isiah Pacheco to reach the end zone, but Watson merits a small interest at much bigger odds.

Patience will be required as Watson has averaged only three to five targets per game, but Mahomes has few reliable targets outside Kelce and Rashee Rice as Kadarius Toney and Skyy Moore have played themselves out of the picture and even veteran Marquez Valdez-Scantling have made some costly drops. 

Watson scored three touchdowns in the second half of the season and while he has caught only three passes so far in the playoffs, two were for first downs and his 460 receiving yards in the regular season put him third on the team.

Two of the Chiefs' touchdowns in last season's Super Bowl came from players further down the depth chart in Toney and Moore, and Watson could take advantage if the 49ers defenders pay too much attention to Kelce near the goal-line.

Quarterbacks have won ten of the last 14 Super Bowl MVP awards and Mahomes is going for a hat-trick after landing the prize in both of the Chiefs' recent victories. He is favourite at 6-4 for this year's award even though the 49ers are favoured to win. 

That is because San Francisco QB Brock Purdy is only just seen as his team's leading candidate at around 5-2 ahead of running back Christian McCaffrey at 4-1. 

Given the hype around him, a small bet on Kelce at 14-1 offers decent value. Clearly Mahomes will be passing every ball he receives, but the tight end could put up some individual stats that are hard to ignore.

Click here to get 60-1 on the Chiefs to win the Super Bowl when you open a new account with Paddy Power.

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Get 60-1 on the Kansas City Chiefs to win the Super Bowl with Paddy Power

We’ve already mentioned that Paddy Power are offering new customers 60-1 for the Chiefs to win the Super Bowl.

You can follow these simple steps outlined below to grab this Paddy Power betting offer. It's fast, secure and straightforward.

  1. Head over to Paddy Power and open a new account using promo code YSACID.
  2. Deposit a minimum of £10 by Cards (Apple Pay deposits are not eligible).
  3. Place a max £1 bet on the 'match odds' market on Kansas City Chiefs to beat San Francisco 49ers in the Super Bowl.
  4. If your bet is successful, you will be paid in cash based on the normal price on site and will have the extra amount credited in free bets.  

Paddy Power Super Bowl betting sign-up offer: terms and conditions

It's worth taking a few minutes to read through the terms and conditions associated with the new player promotion before signing up. Doing so will help you get a better grasp of the details of this Super Bowl betting offer and what's expected of you as a new player.

  • New customer offer. 
  • Winnings paid in cash at normal odds and are topped up to the enhanced price in Free Bets. 
  • Free bets are valid 7 days, only deposits with cards are eligible. 
  • Excludes multiples & in-play bets. 
  • Visit Paddy Power for further T&Cs. 
  • Please gamble responsibly.

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Published on 10 February 2024inNFL tips

Last updated 10:05, 12 February 2024