Steve Palmer's free predictions and golf betting tips for the Arnold Palmer Invitational

When to bet on the Arnold Palmer Invitational

By 12.35pm on Thursday

Where can I watch the Arnold Palmer Invitational

Live on Sky Sports Golf from 4pm on Thursday

Steve Palmer's Arnold Palmer Invitational predictions

Ludvig Aberg
5pts each-way 14-1 Hills

Sam Burns
2pts each-way 50-1 bet365

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Steve Palmer's Arnold Palmer Invitational preview

Scottie Scheffler has won two of the last three Arnold Palmer Invitationals and has been chalked up as a short-priced favourite this week, but the world number one has been lacking polish this year and can be overlooked at the odds.

Scheffler has played three times this year, with form figures of 9-25-3, and he has failed to put every department of his game together. Loose driving and abysmal chipping at Pebble Beach were followed by a general mediocrity in Phoenix, then another unimpressive performance off the tee in the Genesis Invitational.

Driving long and straight is crucial at Bay Hill, so Scheffler is difficult to support with confidence, while Rory McIlroy's questionable preparation quells any urge to back him. McIlroy played in the Seminole Pro-Member event on Monday, then had a TGL match, so had a busy start to Arnold Palmer Invitational week.

Steve Palmer's top tip

Ludvig Aberg 14-1

Back-to-back Signature Event victories may be coming for Ludvig Aberg, who was awesome at Torrey Pines South in his last outing. Despite opening with a 74 in the Genesis Invitational, Aberg banked the $4m first prize, and a cheque for the same amount could be coming on Sunday for the super Swede.

Aberg closed the Genesis with rounds of 66, 70, 66, covering his final 54 holes at the notoriously tough Torrey Pines South in 14 under par. He took last week off to freshen up and has headed to a Bay Hill track he knows well with a huge level of confidence.

This will be Aberg's third start in the Arnold Palmer Invitational. He teed up in 2023 when he was still an amateur, making just his fourth start in a PGA Tour event, ranked 1,983rd in the world, but he tied for 24th place. On his return 12 months ago, he shared 25th place and only two players in the field outscored him in round three.

There are hardly any courses that Aberg has played more than once on the PGA Tour but he can hit the ground running at Bay Hill, teeing off this week as world number four in his adopted home state. He moved into a new house with his girlfriend in Ponte Vedra Beach in November.

This ball-striking colossus appears more ready than ever to win a PGA Tour title in the Sunshine State and this may be one of the last opportunities punters get to support Aberg at double-figure prices.

Next best bet

Sam Burns 50-1

There are 13 names ahead of Sam Burns in the outright betting of a couple of bookmakers this week, which seems a harsh assessment of a class act. His maiden PGA Tour title came in Florida in the 2021 Valspar Championship, then he retained that trophy 12 months later.

Burns has finished eighth in the Honda Classic and he was ninth in the 2022 Arnold Palmer Invitational. He knows how to handle difficult Florida layouts and this five-time PGA Tour champion is well capable of making a mockery of his odds.

Burns, a great friend of Scheffler, has fared better than most players in tussles with the world number one in recent years and would relish another battle with Scheffler on Sunday. On the form shown in last year's FedEx Cup playoffs, the Louisiana man deserves more respect from the market.

Burns finished second in the BMW Championship amid that strong playoffs streak, then opened 2025 with eighth place in The Sentry. Slow starts and a cold putter have blighted Burns since but he closed with a 66 in Phoenix and a 69 in the Genesis. Expect him to get out of the traps quicker at Bay Hill as he adores putting on Bermuda greens.

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18+. New customers only. Min 1st deposit £10. Certain deposit methods & bet types excl. Bet £/€1 single on Salah to have 1+ shots on target for 8 x £/5 Free Bets (valid 4 days). Stake & winnings returned at original odds as cash on settlement. Restrictions + T&Cs apply.

Bet £5 on golf with Ladbrokes and claim £25 in FREE BETS

Course guide for the Arnold Palmer Invitational

• Course Arnold Palmer's Bay Hill Club and Lodge, Orlando, Florida
• Prize money $20m ($4m to the winner)
• Length 7,466 yards
• Par 72 - four par-fives; ten par-fours; four par-threes
• Field 72 The cut Top 50 and ties (and anyone within ten shots of the lead) qualify for round three
• Highest-ranked players in field (world ranking in brackets) Scottie Scheffler (1), Rory McIlroy (2), Xander Schauffele (3), Ludvig Aberg (4), Collin Morikawa (5)
• Course records - 72 holes 264 Payne Stewart (1987) 18 holes 62 Andy Bean (1981), Greg Norman (1984), Adam Scott (2014)
• Course winners taking part Jason Day, Rory McIlroy, Scottie Scheffler (twice)
• When to bet By 12.35pm on Thursday
• When to watch Live on Sky Sports Golf from 4pm on Thursday
• Time difference Florida is five hours behind the UK and Ireland
• Last week – Cognizant Classic 1 J Highsmith (100-1), T2 J Bridgeman (125-1), JJ Spaun (60-1), T4 M McGreevy (200-1), B Griffin (45-1), T6 R Henley (22-1), J Knapp (80-1), M Kim (55-1)
• Course type Parkland
• Course overview Bay Hill has hosted a PGA Tour event every year since 1979. Arnold Palmer made significant changes to the track before the 2010 edition, so form prior is of little relevance. Water is in play on several holes and there are lots of doglegs
• Story of last year Scottie Scheffler cruised to a five-shot victory, leaving Wyndham Clark a distant runner-up
• Weather forecast Sunny for the most part. Moderate breezes are expected on Thursday and Sunday, leaving Friday and Saturday as the best scoring days. Sunday also has the potential for some short showers
• Type of player suited to the challenge There is plenty of water to trouble the competitors on this tough layout, as well as greenside run-off areas, putting a premium on accuracy and the ability to grind pars, especially with some wind in the forecast
• Key attribute Accuracy

Steve Palmer's Arnold Palmer Invitational key stat

Seven of the last eight winners ranked inside the top ten for greens in regulation

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For those looking for even more extensive golf coverage don't miss Palmer's extra pointers every Wednesday in the Racing Post newspaper.

As well as his tips and insight you will also get expert spotlight comments for all players in our extensive PGA Tour and DP Tour price comparison grids which include course and recent form, plus Palmer's unique attribute icons to help identify the type of players likely to be suited to conditions each week.