Arsenal vs Aston Villa prediction, betting tips and odds: Hosts gunning for top spot

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Where to watch Arsenal vs Aston Villa

You can watch Arsenal vs Aston Villa in the Premier League at 4:30pm on Sunday, April 14, live on Sky Sports Main Event, Premier League and Ultra HDR

Match prediction & best bet

Arsenal to win & over 2.5 goals
2pts 3-4, Coral, Ladbrokes

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Arsenal vs Aston Villa odds

Arsenal 3-10
Aston Villa 10-1
Draw 5-1

Odds correct at time of publishing

Arsenal vs Aston Villa predictions

Manchester City returned to the top of the Premier League with victory over Luton on Saturday, but Arsenal can get back in the driving seat in an enthralling title race and they are expected to move one step closer to a 14th top-flight title and a first in two decades when they host Aston Villa on Sunday.

The Gunners’ Champions League ambitions were dealt a blow in midweek when they were held to a draw at home to Bayern Munich, although the situation could have looked a lot bleaker were it not for Leandro Trossard’s late equaliser.

However, despite a tough trip to Bavaria looming large on the horizon, don’t expect much in the way of rotation from Mikel Arteta as he seeks to break the north-west’s six-year stranglehold on the Premier League trophy.

If Arsenal do go on to win the title this season, few could argue it would be an undeserved success.

Arteta’s men have won ten of their 11 league matches since the turn of the year, dropping points only away to champions Manchester City.

They hold both the best attacking and best defensive records in the table and have won one more game than both their title rivals, including 12 wins from 15 outings at the Emirates.

Aston Villa sit fifth in the table and are still in the hunt for Champions League qualification, but their form has dwindled after a fantastic first half to the season and there is a gulf in class between the leading trio in the Premier League and the chasing pack.

Unai Emery, who also faces a midweek European trip next week, is dealing with plenty of selection issues too as midfield mainstay Douglas Luiz is suspended for this trip to the capital and joins a list of five confirmed injury absentees.

However, with Ollie Watkins spearheading the attack, the visitors always pose a threat going forward, and that should make for an entertaining affair at the Emirates.

Aston Villa’s Premier League games have produced more goals than 18 of the 19 other top-flight teams this season and their tally of 115 scored equates to 3.59 strikes per game. Over 2.5 goals has landed in nine of their last 11 in the league and eight of their last ten away from home, while ten of Arsenal’s last 12 Premier League games have produced three or more goals.

Villa’s last six meetings with the current eight best teams in the top tier have yielded just a single point – a 1-1 draw at West Ham – and they are unlikely to add to that total against the rampant title hopefuls, so backing the Gunners to win a goalfest could prove to be the best bet on Sunday.

Key stat

Aston Villa's Premier League games this season have featured 115 goals - only Newcastle have a higher tally with 117.

Arsenal vs Aston Villa team news

Arsenal
Long-term absentee Jurrien Timber is Arsenal's only injury problem ahead of Sunday's game, and Mikel Arteta could field an unchanged starting 11 from the side that drew with Bayern Munich in midweek.

Aston Villa
Douglas Luiz picked up his tenth Premier League booking of the season against Brentford and will serve his suspension at the Emirates, with John McGinn likely to slot back into Luiz's vacant midfield role and Moussa Diaby fielded behind Ollie Watkins. Luiz joins a lengthy absentee list that includes Boubacar Kamara, Emi Buendia, Tyrone Mings, Matty Cash, and Jacob Ramsey, while Clement Lenglet is also a doubt.

Probable teams

Arsenal (4-3-3): Raya; White, Saliba, Magalhaes, Kiwior; Jorginho, Rice, Odegaard; Saka, Havertz, Martinelli
Subs: Zinchenko, Trossard, Jesus, Partey, Ramsdale, Vieira, Smith Rowe

Aston Villa (4-4-1-1): Martinez; Konsa, Carlos, Torres, Digne; Bailey, Tielemans, McGinn, Rogers; Diaby; Watkins
Subs: Zaniolo, Moreno, Iroegbunam, Duran, Olsen, Chamber, Gauci

Inside info

Arsenal

Star man Bukayo Saka
Top scorer Bukayo Saka
Penalty taker Bukayo Saka
Card magnet Kai Havertz
Assist ace Bukayo Saka
Set-piece aerial threat William Saliba

Aston Villa

Star man Ollie Watkins
Top scorer Ollie Watkins
Penalty taker Ollie Watkins
Card magnet John McGinn
Assist ace Ollie Watkins
Set-piece aerial threat Pau Torres

Arsenal vs Aston Villa bet builder predictions

Ollie Watkins to have one or more shots on target
Ollie Watkins has had more shots on target (42) than any other player in the Premier League this season. He scored twice last weekend and again in midweek and he has tested the goalkeeper at least once in 14 of his last 17 competitive starts for Villa.

Bukayo Saka to score or assist
Bukayo Saka leads the way in both goals and assists for Arsenal this season and has 22 goal contributions from 29 Premier League appearances, while his midweek goal against Bayern Munich was his second in the past week.

John McGinn to be fouled two or more times
John McGinn is the sixth-most fouled player in the Premier League this season with 55 fouls drawn in total. He was fouled twice against Lille in midweek and has now drawn two or more fouls in eight of his last nine appearances for Villa.

Pays out at 9-2 with bet365

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