Aston Villa v Derby: Sky Bet Championship playoff final betting preview and tip

TV: Sky Sports Football/Main Event, 3pm Monday

Aston Villa have suffered four consecutive Wembley defeats but they would soon be forgotten if they can beat Derby in the Sky Bet Championship playoff final to seal a return to the Premier League.

The last time Villa had a successful day out at Wembley was in 1996 when they defeated Leeds 3-0 in the League Cup final.

Since then they have lost two FA Cup finals (1-0 to Chelsea in 2000 and 4-0 to Arsenal in 2015) one League Cup final (2-1 to Manchester United in 2010) and succumbed 1-0 to Fulham in last season's Championship playoff final.

Their defeat to the Cottagers was intensely disappointing because they failed to perform and could have no complaints over the result.
Villa took a long time to recover and their points tally of 76 this season was seven fewer than they got last year.

For many months it seemed unlikely they would reach the top six but their season turned with a 4-0 victory at home to Derby in early March.

The game was Jack Grealish's first after almost three months on the sidelines and he produced an outstanding performance, capped off by a thunderous long-range volley.

With Grealish's considerable help, Villa went from strength to strength. A club-record sequence of ten consecutive victories was enough to clinch a top-six finish and manager Dean Smith had the luxury of being able to rest players for the final match of the season at home to Norwich.

Villa were not at their best in the playoff semi-final against West Brom and needed goalkeeper Jed Steer to come up trumps in the penalty shootout at the Hawthorns.

Playing against a defensive-minded West Brom didn't seem to suit them but they should get far greater freedom in the final because Derby will look to attack.

The Rams had to wait until the final week of the regular season to seal a playoff place by winning 3-1 at home to West Brom and they looked dead and buried in the semi-final when Leeds scored the first two goals of the tie.

Frank Lampard's side responded superbly to win 4-2 in a thriller at Elland Road, although their task was made easier by some dreadful individual errors.

Leeds goalkeeper Kiko Casilla and central defender Liam Cooper were culpable for Derby's first and third goals and the final moment of madness came from Gaetano Berardi, who received a second yellow card for a crazy tackle on Bradley Johnson.

The home side were already understrength due to injuries and Berardi's dismissal proved to be the final straw as Derby substitute Jack Marriott took advantage by scoring the winner, his second of the game.

Marriott's man-of-the-match performance will have given food for thought to Lampard, who called on him only after injuries to Martyn Waghorn, David Nugent and Mason Bennett.

Lampard has not always been satisfied with Marriott's workrate but his finishing quality is obvious and could be important in a game of such magnitude.

Derby's other likely matchwinners are loanees Mason Mount and Harry Wilson, who have contributed league goal tallies of eight and 15.

• Sky Bet Championship final standings

Mount missed nine games with a hamstring injury between January and March and Derby suffered, collecting just ten points from a possible 27.

They did better when Mount returned for the run-in but other areas of the squad are stretched with left-back Scott Malone suspended and strikers Waghorn and Nugent battling injuries.

Villa, in contrast, have no significant injury worries and can simply focus on finding their A-game.

They played as well as any second-tier side in the final months of the season and one more big performance could see them reach the promised land.

Recommendation
Aston Villa
2pts 5-4 general

Bet on this match at Soccerbase.com

Team news
Aston Villa
Orjan Nyland (Achilles) is a long-term absentee but Aston Villa have an otherwise fully fit squad.

Derby
Scott Malone is suspended after being sent off at Leeds. Martyn Waghorn (Achilles) and Andy King (ankle) are doubts and Craig Bryson (ankle), Curtis Davies (Achilles), David Nugent, Marcus Olsson and Craig Forsyth (all knee) are out.

Key stat
Aston Villa have won six of their last nine matches against Derby.

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