'We're going there with a live chance' - who rates his chances against Aidan O'Brien hotpot in Gordon Stakes?

In Flat racing we rarely talk about trial races for the next year, unless referring to Classics, and because of this the Gordon Stakes is incorrectly labelled as a St Leger trial. Its primary function over the last 15 years has been as a foundation for the middle-distance Group 1s of the coming season.

Since the Gordon Stakes-St Leger double was last completed in 2008 by Conduit, seven of the 14 winners of this race have gone on to land a Group 1 contest. Only one of them had to go up in distance to do so. Conduit won three mile-and-a-half Group 1s after the Leger.

Once you see the Gordon Stakes for what it is, stamina becomes only a minor concern. Most of these horses have shown their form over this trip or something close to it. They therefore pass that test.

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For all the talk of potential, many of the runners have already had a run at a higher level than this Group 3. Espionage has been second in a Group 1. Artistic Star ran in the Derby. Chesspiece was placed in the Queen's Vase and Canberra Legend ran in the Dante. Even those without Group-race experience, Desert Hero and Burdett Road, have both won handicaps at Royal Ascot. None of these horses have had sheltered lives.

Chesspiece fits the framing of the Gordon that prizes next year over Doncaster. He did not look a dour stayer when third in the Queen's Vase and since then he has won the Glasgow Stakes at Hamilton. That race is Scotland's answer to the Gordon Stakes. Winners in the last ten years include late-bloomers Postponed, Defoe, Subjectivist and West Wind Blows.

Importantly, his win that day also showed that Chesspiece could handle soft conditions. While there is not much more rain forecast on Thursday, the ground is unlikely to improve significantly. Espionage backers will be buoyed by that, as he has plenty of form on soft ground, even if his heavy-ground form came in France where definitions are somewhat different.

Desert Hero is a heavy-ground winner, albeit at 1-7, so how much he proved that day is up for question. Artistic Star won his maiden in October on soft. The only runners in the Gordon Stakes without experience on soft or heavy are Canberra Legend (Listed winner on good to soft) and Burdett Road. Progressive though the latter might be, there is a small pile of negatives beside him as he steps up to take on some of the most promising slow-burners around.
Race analysis by Keith Melrose

What they say

Aidan O'Brien, trainer of Espionage
The plan wasn't to run but because the ground changed, we entered the horses that we thought the ground would help. I'd be a little bit nervous, because we haven't trained him for it but he's very well and we know that he does handle a good dig in the ground. That's why we're here.

Michael Bell, trainer of Burdett Road
The ground is an unknown quantity but as things stand we're going to take our chance as we're very happy with him. He was seen to very good effect on fast ground and it would be great if he would be equally effective on this, but it's a fact-finding mission. To win a handicap off a rating of 90 you've got to run to a much-higher rating. If you can do that you're going to be very competitive in a Group race, so this was always the plan after Royal Ascot.

James Ferguson, trainer of Canberra Legend
I'm really looking forward to seeing Canberra Legend run as I feel the step up to a mile and a half will bring out the best in him. I don't think he'll be hampered by the soft conditions and he's in great form, having not run since Ascot. It was great to see him back on track with a great run last time and I think we're going there with a live chance.

Ed Crisford, joint-trainer of Chesspiece
We had several options for him after his win at Hamilton and with the current conditions we thought we'd go for it, as he likes the soft ground. He won the Glasgow Stakes really nicely and has come out of that race so well, and since the weather can change at any moment, we thought it was best to take our chance now.

William Haggas, trainer of Desert Hero
I'm concerned about conditions but he's won on the soft and he's come on again from Ascot. Provided he copes okay with the ground, he should run well.
Reporting by Catherine Macrae

Read our Thursday previews:

1.50 Goodwood: 'If the ground was right I'd be having my maximum bet' - key quotes and analysis for the opener   

2.25 Goodwood: 'He's in really good shape' - once-raced Vandeek ready to tackle more experienced juveniles in intriguing Richmond   

3.35 Goodwood: 'I love this filly and I don't think we've got to the bottom of her' - Blue Rose Cen and Nashwa do battle in the Nassau Stakes   

6.40 Galway: 'Zarak The Brave could be the Grade 1 horse' - has Willie Mullins unearthed another Galway Hurdle gem?   

Galway: Early Arkle fancy Hercule Du Seuil bids to continue rise up the chasing ranks  

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