'We're expecting a very good run' - will Irish raid pay off for topweight Chameron?

Horses who run in 0-120 handicaps at Hexham seldom scale the heights of a Cheltenham Festival, but Into Overdrive climbed through the ranks rapidly after landing this last season. 

That journey culminated with Into Overdrive being among the favourites for the Ultima at the festival a fortnight ago, although this season’s race contains a group of largely exposed handicappers.

Ten-year-old Chameron once had Into Overdrive's level of ability as he was rated in the high 140s for Paul Nicholls in 2017-18. 

Chameron largely disappointed in the years that followed, but refound his form in point-to-points early last year and has shaped well in two of his three starts for Patrick Griffin this season. A line can be drawn through the other as 2m at Down Royal in January unsurprisingly proved too sharp. 

Hexham is a stiff track and the prospect of heavy ground will require a strong stayer. This Irish raider is 5-5 across all codes on going described as 'very soft' or slower and fits the bill under 5lb claimer Mark McDonagh, who is 1-4 in Britain (that success came on Banbridge in last year's Martin Pipe) and negates most of the disparity from Chameron’s 6lb lower Irish mark. 

There are going concerns for Big Changes and Diamond State, the two youngest in the field, while out-of-form veteran Joke Dancer is best known as a two-miler and might need another reprieve from the handicapper.

Chameron’s biggest danger appears to be likely pace angle High Moon, whose top performance on Racing Post Ratings came on this terrain at Ayr in February. High Moon has been dropped 5lb since, having perhaps found the ground too quick at Haydock and Kelso recently.
Race analysis by Robbie Wilders

What they say

James Griffin, assistant to Patrick Griffin, trainer of Chameron
He ran a cracker the last day at Down Royal, the race didn’t work out how we thought it’d work out. We’re just disappointed that the English handicapper saw fit to give 7lb when the Irish handicapper only gave him 1lb for the last day. I think two and half miles on a stiff track on slow ground is probably what he wants. We’re expecting a very good run but it’s a tight race. Rebecca Menzies's horses are running well and if Big Changes handles the ground, they’re the two to beat.

Sue Smith, trainer of Joke Dancer
We’re stepping him up in trip. He’s come out of the race at Southwell very well. It’s time to step him up now and see how he goes. It all depends on how heavy the ground is. It’ll be one of his first times over two and a half miles and his first time around Hexham. All should suit him, so hopefully he’ll run a good race.

Rebecca Menzies, trainer of High Moon
He’s run some really good races in defeat this year. He’s probably just been a fraction out of his grade; this looks more suitable. He should go on the ground and he deserves to win one.
Reporting by Charlie Huggins

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