Can Paul Nicholls boost his 30 per cent strike-rate at Wincanton with the progressive Toss Of A Coin?

Paul Nicholls has won with 16 of his 54 runners at Wincanton this season for a strike-rate of 30 per cent, and the eye is immediately drawn to the champion trainer’s Toss Of A Coin.

The lightly raced six-year-old is well regarded as a future soft-ground chaser, and is unlikely to reach his full potential until sent over fences.

However, he is unbeaten as a hurdler in two starts at Exeter and Newbury, and an opening mark of 129 could be fair.

The Dan Skelton-trained Home Free, who has bottom weight, is similarly unexposed following a 14-length romp in a three-runner maiden hurdle at Lingfield run on heavy ground. It’s likely there is plenty more to come from him too.

Monviel acts well on heavy ground, but a 3lb rise to 129 for his second to Santos Blue at Uttoxeter does not enhance his claims.

He has regularly been beaten off similar marks since landing an Ascot handicap hurdle off 120 in November 2022.

American Sniper is another who doesn’t appear to have anything in hand on his current mark in a £15,000 race which looks likely to go to one of the lightly raced improvers.
Race analysis by Richard Birch

Going update

The going on Sunday was heavy, soft in places on the hurdle and chase courses. It is forecast to be largely dry on Monday, with a chance of rain later in the afternoon.

What they say

Jamie Snowden, trainer of Hardy Du Seuil
He got a bit of a fright in the Grand Annual, the whole experience got to him a bit. We're back in calmer waters and back over hurdles, so hopefully he gets back on track. He's in great order and has come out of Cheltenham fine. He can run a nice race.

Joe Tizzard, trainer of Bourbali
His rider went up his neck last time [saddle slipped] so we were keen to get a run into him quickly, if he's too fresh he's too keen for his own good. He's competitive off his mark and Fred [Gingell] takes a valuable 5lb off.

Harry Derham, trainer of Monviel
The testing ground will suit him and if he runs as well as he did last time he should have a leading chance.

David Pipe, trainer of American Sniper
He's in good form, the track and trip should be fine and he should be okay on soft ground. It's a competitive race and he's probably handicapped high enough, but he has an each-way chance.

Olly Murphy, trainer of Resplendent Grey
His form throughout the season doesn't read too badly. We're taking the hood off him and we'll ride him more prominently. He's handicapped to be competitive and hopefully he'll go well.
Reporting by Stuart Riley

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