Can Facile Vega redeem his reputation and buck the trends with victory in the Supreme?

All aboard! The Willie Mullins winner train is ready to leave the station and the great majority of punters probably won't want to get left on the platform when the tapes go up for this traditional festival curtain-raiser because Mullins has dominated the race in recent years.

He has won the Supreme five times in the last ten seasons, but he saddled 29 runners in the race in that time and therefore a £1 bet on all of his representatives would have lost £6.77.

However, it hasn't been difficult to work out which one is his main hope as his stable jockey was on all five winners. Ruby Walsh rode four and Paul Townend partnered Appreciate It to victory two years ago. His second, third and even fourth strings have gone a combined 0-19.

Stable jockey Paul Townend will ride Facile Vega this year and he takes a tried-and-tested route. Four of the five Mullins-trained Supreme winners ran in the Grade 1 contest now known as the Tattersalls Ireland Novice Hurdle at the Dublin Racing Festival. 

Facile Vega also had his prep race there but he was beaten 20 lengths into fifth of six after going off 4-9 favourite and that is a key difference between him and the other four Mullins' Supreme winners Champagne Fever, Vautour, Klassical Dream and Appreciate It.

They all won that Leopardstown Grade 1 en route to Cheltenham, but Facile Vega is coming here with his lofty reputation to repair and Mullins laid the blame at Townend's door straight after the defeat, suggesting his main man had set an unsustainably fast pace.

That is true to an extent in that Facile Vega did appear to go off too quickly, but he didn't go fast enough to excuse his pedestrian-like finishing sectionals which saw him to drop back through the field like a stone. Townend got it wrong, but he didn't get it 20-lengths wrong.

Mullins later reported Facile Vega had returned lame, which looks a more plausible excuse. Whatever the reason, we didn't see the real Facile Vega at Leopardstown and we know that because he thrashed the winner Il Etait Temps in a good time at the track on his previous start. If he were coming to Cheltenham straight after that, he would be odds-on.

It's a quick turnaround for Mullins to get Facile Vega right just 37 days on. If anyone can do it he can, but it's worth pointing out that Mullins-trained runners who came in without a 1 by their name are just 16-324 since 2010. A £1 bet on each lost £116.

Seven of Facile Vega's 13 rivals head to this race following a win and nine of the last ten winners of the Supreme scored on their last start. Labaik was the exception in 2017.

Marine Nationale looks the best among the last-time-out winners and recorded a good time when getting up late to land the Grade 1 Royal Bond at Fairyhouse in December. He hasn't been seen since but won that race after a 53-day break, so a 100-day absence might be ideal.

Trainer Barry Connell might not be a household name like Mullins, but if you worry he could be the weak link then you should think again as his recent figures are strong.

Connell had trained just 15 winners from 113 runners up to the end of 2021, but he is 22-90 since the start of last year and his 24 per cent strike-rate yielded a £18.10 profit to £1 stakes. Mullins has recorded only a slightly higher 26 per cent strike-rate during that same period.
Race analysis by Graeme Rodway

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60-1 Facile Vega to win the Supreme Novices' Hurdle. New customers who use EP60FVA can get an enhanced 60-1 on Facile Vega to win the festival opener. Applies to bets placed from 09:00 on March 7, 2023 until 13:30 on March 14, 2023. £1 must be staked on Facile Vega to win the Supreme Novices' Hurdle. Returns paid as 2 x £30 in free bets (30-day expiry). Player and currency restrictions and terms apply. 18+. Play safe.

Mullins hopes change of tactics does the trick 

Facile Vega's bubble may have been burst at the Dublin Racing Festival but Willie Mullins, who has won the Supreme a record seven times including in five of the last ten years, is confident that one defeat in an otherwise unblemished career was nothing more than a tactical blip for last year's Champion Bumper winner.

"Facile Vega is in tremendous form and he's been doing everything right at home," said the festival's all-time leading trainer. "It's a little disappointing we got the tactics wrong at Leopardstown. While once again High Definition will probably be ridden prominently in this race, Paul Townend doesn't have to take him on so early and I'd imagine we will change our tactics and hopefully get a better result."

Facile Vega finished 20 lengths behind Il Etait Temps in the Grade 1 Tattersalls Ireland Novice Hurdle, yet the victor is double the price of his more illustrious stablemate in the betting. 

Il Etait Temps: takes on stablemate Facile Vega once more in the SupremeCredit: Caroline Norris

Mullins said: "Il Etait Temps has a lot of experience and is improving all the time. I feel there's more improvement jumping-wise and that puts him in this race with a strong chance."

Diverge and Dark Raven are the least fancied of the trainer's quartet but Diverge in particular has not gone unnoticed after winning a maiden hurdle by 23 lengths at Punchestown in January.

"I'm not sure how good Diverge is but he's certainly good enough to take his chance here and he's a good each-way prospect," said the trainer. "If Dark Raven finished in the first six I think it'd be a very good run from him."

'I think we have the best horse in the race'

A huge week for owner-trainer Barry Connell starts with Grade 1 Royal Bond scorer Marine Nationale in the Supreme and there can be no mistaking his confidence.

Connell also runs Good Land in Wednesday's Ballymore Novices' Hurdle and can envisage a dream big-race double. 

"I know that there are shorter-priced horses but I don't think they have all the attributes we have," said Connell. "Marine Nationale has tactical speed, gears and jumps well. I know that he made a mistake at the last in the Royal Bond at Fairyhouse but I think that was just a lack of concentration."

While a similar mistake could be more costly at Cheltenham, Connell feels his horse's relaxed demeanour will be a plus in the festival cauldron.

"He's very laid-back which is a massive plus when you're going to a festival with thousands of people," he added. "I think we have the best horse in each of the races they are in."

Marine Nationale: unbeaten in four starts for Barry ConnellCredit: Patrick McCann

'Tahmuras will come home strong'

Paul Nicholls knows what it takes to win the Supreme, having landed the opening race of the festival with Al Ferof (2011) and Noland (2006), and Britain's champion trainer puts this year's challenger Tahmuras in the same mould as his previous winners.

Just like Noland, Tahmuras claimed a Grade 1 victory in the Tolworth Hurdle and has not missed a beat in his training since that Sandown victory in January.

Nicholls said: "Facile Vega has been the talking horse all season but he was beaten last time and apart from him it looks an open race to me. I'd like to think we've got a lovely chance. 

"He's not flashy but keeps winning. He stays strong and, after the rain, there's going to be a bit more emphasis on stamina and that will suit him well."

What they say

Olly Murphy, trainer of Chasing Fire and Strong Leader
Chasing Fire is perhaps a little bit more streetwise but both have had clean preparations. I'd love to see them turn in with a chance because both will come home well. I wouldn't be surprised if either were placed. They might possibly be suited by a bit better ground but I'm not going to use that as an excuse.

Gordon Elliott, trainer of Doctor Bravo
He's improving fast and he's turned inside out since he ran at Gowran. I think he's got a decent each-way chance and wouldn't put anybody off.

John McConnell, trainer of Fennor Cross
It's good he has the course experience and soft ground won't be an issue. Hopefully he can improve on what he has done so far and be competitive.

Joseph O'Brien, trainer of High Definition
It's an open-looking race and he's been training well since Leopardstown. I don't think he'd want it very soft but he will handle ground on the slower side.

Henry de Bromhead, trainer of Inthepocket
The plan was the Ballymore but, with the way the ground is, we've switched to the Supreme. We think he has plenty of pace and I hope he can run well.

Fergal O'Brien, trainer of Palace Boy
He's up against it on the figures but Paddy Brennan will try and nurse him into the race. He's versatile and will go on most grounds.

Charlie Longsdon, trainer of Rare Edition
He had a dirty scope and some muscle problems after his defeat at Huntingdon but that's all been sorted out. The form of his Kempton win is strong and hopefully he can be in the first four or five.

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