'He's unbelievably talented and we've got him in a good place now' - key quotes and insight for the Ultima

If you have read anything on the Ultima Handicap Chase in recent weeks, you will be familiar with the statistic that this race has not been won by an Irish-trained horse since Dun Doire in 2006.

Irish domination at the Cheltenham Festival is a much more recent phenomenon than that. It is also fairly well known that the handicap chases at Cheltenham provide Britain's strongest rearguard action. So how unlikely is this Irish dry run?

The statistics show a modest, but not terrible record overall, of which the lack of a win is just a quirk. Since 2007, 10.5 per cent of the runners have been Irish-trained. That group of horses has been responsible for 11.1 per cent of those placed. So the Irish are getting their share of horses in the frame.

Going by the SP of all runners, the Irish representation tracks to 11.8 per cent of all expected winners. So on average, from the last 16 runnings Ireland might only have expected one winner. This also suggests Irish trainers are not sending their best team for the Ultima. You would expect to see a stronger selection bias in the Irish cohort, manifested through a bigger gap than what is observed between their representation (10.5 per cent) and the chance given to that group (11.8 per cent).

It could be argued that The Goffer, this year's main Irish hope, is a symptom of this trend more than an exception to it. He showed a fair amount of his hand in winning a major handicap at the Dublin Racing Festival, which was more valuable than the Ultima. Even his trainer Gordon Elliott, who has run more horses in this race in recent years than any of his compatriots, knows his priorities lie elsewhere.

Instead, focus on those British-trained horses who have been laid out for the race. Into Overdrive is number one on that list, not last year's winner Corach Rambler, whose main focus this season has reportedly been the Grand National. Also look out for Iceo Madrik, a talented French import whose trainer David Pipe is the most successful in this race in modern times. Like many big handicaps, the key to the Ultima is often identifying who targets the race.
Race analysis by Keith Melrose

'It's unbelievable to have a Cheltenham chance'

A first Cheltenham Festival runner with a live chance is described as the stuff of dreams by North Yorkshire trainer Mark Walford, and he believes the prolific improver Into Overdrive can rise to the occasion in this tricky handicap.

The eight-year-old has won five times, and finished second once, in 12 months and in doing so risen a whopping 35lb in the weights. Last seen winning the Rowland Meyrick at Wetherby on Boxing Day, he now faces his toughest task to date, but reportedly arrives in rude health for the trainer ending a 15-year wait for a festival runner. Jockey Jamie Hamilton has an extra incentive, as the horse is owned by his mother Wendy.

Into Overdrive: has won twice this seasonCredit: John Grossick (racingpost.com/photos)

Walford said: "Going to Cheltenham with a chance is what you dream about. You need all the luck on the day but our horses are running well and it's unbelievable to have a chance.

"He seems in great form. Jamie schooled him on Monday over a couple of fences and he jumped really well. It's an exciting day for the yard, we've had a couple of decent horses but nothing of his level. He's got to improve again, these races are so difficult to win but I wouldn't swap him. I like horses on the upgrade and that's what he is."

Corach Rambler will bid to become only the fourth multiple winner of the Ultima in the race's 78-year history but connections feel he arrives in better form this year. This will also serve as a prep for the Grand National, for which he is a 12-1 second favourite.

Peter Scudamore, assistant to trainer Lucinda Russell and Corach Rambler's rider at home, said:  "I think he's in better form than he was last season. His run in the Coral Gold Cup was a cracking effort, he's been to Cheltenham twice and won twice but he'll need a career best performance. The recent rain will be in his favour as stamina is one of his strongest attributes. The National is his principal target but I could see him running well here before."

What they say

Venetia Williams, trainer of Fanion D'Estruval, Cloudy Glen and Laskalin
Cloudy Glen ran nicely last time and he was second in the Kim Muir at this meeting a couple of years ago. We've put Fanion D'Estruval in the Ryanair for the last couple of years but he should find this a bit more manageable. Laskalin was a bit disappointing last time but had some nice form prior to that.

Kim Bailey, trainer of Happygolucky
I'm very pleased with him. It's a tough task but he's had two good runs this season and he's got his ground now. I'm hoping he can run very well.

David Pipe, trainer of Remastered and Iceo Madrik
The ground has come right for Remastered. I'm not sure what happened at Sandown last time but I hope he'll put it behind him as the Remastered from Kempton would have a big chance. Iceo Madrik will like the ground but it's a bit of a fact-finding mission. He looks to stay well and he's schooled nicely at home.

The Big Breakaway: one of two runners for Joe TizzardCredit: Edward Whitaker

Joe Tizzard, trainer of The Big Breakaway and Oscar Elite
I’d say we’ve got two nice chances. Oscar Elite wouldn’t want any more rain but he comes here off the back of a lovely win in the Reynoldstown and is in the form of his life. He seems to enjoy coming to the festival, he ran a cracker in the Albert Bartlett the year before. The Big Breakaway is in really good form too, he wouldn’t mind the ground and ran well in an RSA [the Brown Advisory Novices' Chase] not too long ago. The National is a target but that’s four and a half weeks away, so far it’s all been about this race.

Martin Brassil, trainer of Fastorslow
It's probably not ideal having his first run in a handicap over fences in such a competitive race but he ran very well here last season over hurdles. He has never gone further than 2m5f so it is a new venture for him but we are hoping he gets this trip.

Paul Gilligan, trainer of Glamorgan Duke
We didn't expect him to get in but he snuck in off this low weight. If he brings his Leopardstown run then he has to have a squeak. He jumps and he stays so this trip should be no issue. It's a great day for us with our own young lad riding him, I think he will run well and the light weight will be a massive help to him.

Paul Nicholls, trainer of Threeunderthrufive
He got no further than the first fence in the Coral Gold Cup and then ran okay under a big weight at Warwick in January. I still think he's rated 5lb too high but we've got him very well and he's got a chance. Conditions will be fine.

Gordon Elliott, trainer of The Goffer
Davy [Russell] was brilliant on him at Leopardstown and I think this longer trip will suit him. He's still unexposed and I think there's more to come from him.

Tom Lacey, trainer of Tea Clipper
The ground has dampened his opportunity a little. I think we’ll take our chance but we kept him off for a while with the sunshine and spring ground in mind.

Gary Moore, trainer of Nassalam
I hope the ground will help him out a bit more and the trip might get a bit more improvement out of him. He’ll need to as it’s a tough race. He acts on the track which is important.

Fergal O'Brien, trainer of Karl Philippe
He was taken off his feet last time and we felt he wanted further. He deserves to take his chance and Jack Hogan gets on very well with him.

Nigel Twiston-Davies, trainer of Good Boy Bobby and Fantastikas
I'd like to think they'll have chances. Fantastikas has not been as fantastic this season as he was last season but he's got himself down to a workable mark. I think Good Boy Bobby's mark is fair too and he's a good horse on his day.

Ben Pauling, trainer of Harper’s Brook
Ultimately he’s been a little disappointing so far this season. He’s unbelievably talented and has a big engine, it’s just about getting to use it. We feel we’re in a good place with him though. He’s fresh, well, and with the cheekpieces and tongue-tie added hopefully that can bring out his best.

Olly Murphy, trainer of The Wolf
He's an enigma. He has loads of ability and, if he gets into a rhythm, he could run respectable but you never know what you're going to get with him. He likes it around Cheltenham and the rain will be no issue.
Reporting by James Stevens

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