Debate has got people talking about affordability checks again - and it's clear racing still needs to challenge the Gambling Commission

It is less than a week until the Westminster Hall debate on affordability checks – and perhaps now is the time to manage expectations.

There may be some who will regard anything but the sight of green benches packed with MPs waving order papers as a failure and an opportunity to criticise the effort which prompted the debate – a petition on the controversial checks put forward by British racing that received more than 100,000 signatures in less than four weeks.

But two things are worth bearing in mind: first, the debate will not take place in the main chamber but instead in Westminster Hall, where there is considerably less room; and second, parliamentary debates are rarely standing room only like Prime Minister's Questions. One need only flick over to BBC Parliament occasionally to see the Commons is not packed to the rafters during the ordinary business of the day.

The BHA has also been managing expectations by saying last week that British racing is "unlikely to see an immediate change in government policy as a result of the debate".

What the debate will achieve is the opposition to affordability checks will be put on the record and the pressure on ministers to hold true to their promises that neither racing nor bettors will be unduly affected by the proposals will continue.

The Gambling Commission's consultation on affordability checks closed in October and afterwards comments from both government and the industry regulator became more scarce. However, there has been more said in recent days as the debate draws closer and the timetable for delivering the government's proposals becomes more pressing.

This month gambling minister Stuart Andrew told a parliamentary reception the debate provided an "important opportunity" to listen to the concerns about affordability checks and give an update on the progress that has been made.

The same week Gambling Commission chief executive Andrew Rhodes gave a speech at the gambling industry event Ice London in which he said the regulator hoped to publish next steps on affordability, along with other issues, "in the coming weeks". 

Rhodes also acknowledged there would be cynicism about the consultation process and sought to reassure those who had taken part that the commission would "consider all responses carefully" and that consultation responses "do make a difference".

That message was taken up by Gambling Commission executive director Tim Miller in a recent interview with gambling industry publication EGR in which he said that "listening to everyone that's got an interest in this is really key", adding: "I think we've been doing that."

There were also indications the commission has listened to criticism of the reasoning behind the proposals, for instance the claim that only 0.3 per cent of accounts would be affected by affordability checks which ignored the fact the figure would include once-a-year customers.

Gambling Commission executive director Tim Miller

Miller revealed the commission had contacted operators for more "up-to-date" information and went on to reiterate it would be looking to pilot any measures. The commission would also "adapt accordingly and respond" should "unintended consequences" of the measures come through, he added.

So far, so encouraging, but there were comments from Miller in the interview which suggested there remains a need to challenge the commission.

For instance, he said it was "quite a jump" to suggest the existence of the checks already put in place by operators was "driving people out of the market".

"This doesn't feel like an overall market that is seeing lots of money flowing out of it," he said, pointing to the latest industry statistics which showed that gross gambling yield (GGY) had reached a record level.

If the industry statistics Miller quoted are the ones published in November, they do indeed show an increase in GGY – the amount retained by operators after winnings have been paid out – for the non-lottery gambling industry of 9.3 per cent in the year to the end of March 2023 to £10.9 billion.

What Miller did not mention is in the same period online betting turnover actually fell by seven per cent. For horseracing the reduction was around £900 million, or just short of nine per cent, but turnover fell for other sports as well such as football which was down around £600m or nearly six per cent.

It is hard to believe such reductions were down to those having problems with gambling giving up and stopping betting.

Racing claims the fall in betting turnover on the sport is largely a direct consequence of the checks and the figure has actually become a reduction of 15-20 per cent in recent months.

And while Miller acknowledged the depth of feeling about the checks reflected in the consultation response, he seemed to suggest there might be alternative views coming from bettors given the research the regulator has commissioned speaking to a "large number of consumers". He claimed the commission was "seeing some different things coming through that" and that it had to look at the "full variety of views that are coming from consumers".

It would be interesting to see the findings of that research, which to my knowledge has not been mentioned in readers' contributions to the Racing Post's postbag. It would be good to hear from anyone who has taken part.

And previous consumer research carried out for the commission just four years ago found concerns that affordability checks "risked being too intrusive" and raised questions about enforcement and whether they posed data security risks.

What has changed since then?

Read these next:

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Time has come for gambling minister Stuart Andrew to bang some heads together to drive progress 

Premier racing may come riding to the rescue for the Flat - but it's not a model that's likely to work for the jumps 

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