Is the July Cup a slam dunk for Shaquille? We assess his Group 1 chances at Newmarket

The Pertemps Network July Cup (4.35) takes place this weekend and a top-class field of sprinters look set to clash in this year's running of the Group 1 contest. Shaquille heads the betting for Saturday's race, but is this a slam dunk for Julie Camacho's stable star? We assess his chances of success here . . .

Form

Winner of six of his seven career starts, Shaquille heads into the July Cup off the back of a maiden Group 1 success in the Commonwealth Cup, a victory that was all the more impressive given he lost ground after a poor start.

While almost certainly benefitting from his track position at the royal meeting, it would be hard to argue that he was not the best horse in the race given he was a length and a half clear at the line and only looked like increasing that margin the further he went.

Inaugural Commonwealth Cup winner Muhaarar is the only horse to follow victory in that Royal Ascot contest with success in the Newmarket Group 1, but subsequent winners have produced July Cup form figures of 349237, so it remains a key trial.

Shaquille (Oisin Murphy, left) beats Little Big Bear in the Commonwealth CupCredit: Edward Whitaker

Age

Since the introduction of the Commonwealth Cup in 2015, 50 per cent (four) of July Cups have been won by a three-year-old, so it is perhaps no surprise that Shaquille is a warm order to strike at Newmarket.

The other half were won by those aged four, which provides reassurance for the trainers of Azure Blue and Royal Aclaim, while the last five-year-old to win was Slade Power in 2014.

Odds

Only three of the last ten runnings of the July Cup were won by the favourite, with Limato (9-2, 2016) the last market leader to oblige. Subsequent July Cup winners had SPs of 9-2, 8-1, 9-2, 12-1, 9-2 and 14-1.

Rivals

Little Big Bear, runner-up to Shaquille in the Commonwealth Cup, could bid to avenge that defeat and provide Aidan O'Brien with a third July Cup in the last six years – albeit he is reported to be no more than a 50-50 chance to participate in Saturday's race.

Michael Dods is no stranger to training Group 1-winning sprinters and he looks set to unleash Azure Blue. The four-year-old arrives on an upward career trajectory having won her last four starts, the latest success coming in the Group 2 Duke of York Stakes.

Khaadem caused an 80-1 upset in the Queen Elizabeth II Jubilee Stakes and has been supplemented for this at a cost of £36,000 in an attempt to show his royal meeting success was no fluke.

Kinross, who would have almost certainly been partnered by the currently banned Frankie Dettori, finished behind Khaadem in the Jubilee Stakes, but he is entitled to come forward from that first start of the season and his chance would be enhanced granted soft ground conditions.

What they say

Steve Brown, assistant trainer of Shaquille, speaking on June 27
"Martin [Hughes, co-owner] was just keen to concentrate on the domestic races for now, so Newmarket looks realistic. We're going to just try and keep it simple. We don't want to over-race him this year as he's still a young horse. We just want to see how he develops and take it a step at a time.

"He's fresh and well and we're pleased with his wellbeing. He's had three days turned out in his paddock for a couple of hours a day and he had a walk this morning. He'll have a canter tomorrow, on account of him feeling a bit too well in himself. It seems sensible to return to his normal routine.

"We're very relaxed [on who will ride] because everyone who's ever ridden him has done a great job. Both James [Doyle] and Oisin [Murphy] are contracted riders, so I think we'll just analyse the situation closer to the race. Whatever we do we'll be in good hands because knowing the horse is clearly an advantage."

Verdict

Shaquille overcame a slow start to score in the Commonwealth Cup, but a repeat would put him up against it now he is taking on more battle-hardened opponents and that must be factored into his odds of 9-4.

Azure Blue has seen her Duke of York form franked and, representing a stable renowned for housing top-class sprinters, arguably should be a little closer to Shaquille in the July Cup betting.

She rates a better play at the prices, while Royal Aclaim would not be a complete no-hoper if taking in this assignment. She looks ready for the step up to 6f and has run better than her July Cup odds of 40-1 suggest in two starts this season.

Shaquille16:35 Newmarket (July)

View Racecard

Jky: Tnr: Julie Camacho

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'Six days without cantering is a lot' - Little Big Bear only '50-50' to run in July Cup after setback 

'I've always said I don't want to train 200 horses' - Fergal O'Brien talks targets as he goes it alone 

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