Who will win the 2023 Qipco 2,000 Guineas based on previous trends?

The first Classic of the season, the Qipco 2,000 Guineas, takes place on Saturday at Newmarket. We've taken a look at previous trends to try to help pick the winner.

4.40 Newmarket Saturday: Qipco 2,000 Guineas racecard and betting

Rating

It takes a class horse to win the 2,000 Guineas and in the last ten years, eight winners have been officially rated 110 or higher. Night Of Thunder and Poetic Flare, who were both rated 109, were the only two to buck that trend.

Six of those winners were rated 115 or higher, so those who were not top-class as a juvenile have a tough task on their hands in the Newmarket Classic.

This looks set to be a stunning running, with six horses in the field – Auguste Rodin, Little Big Bear, Chaldean, Royal Scotsman, Silver Knott and Noble Style - rated at that number or higher.

Form

It may be quite obvious, but the more frequent winners in the field hold a better chance of Classic glory. Seven of the last ten winners were unbeaten or had only been deafeated once prior to landing the 2,000 Guineas. The most recent exception to that trend was 2019 victor Kameko, who was a nose and a neck away from remaining unbeaten in his four runs as a juvenile.

As well as being a prolific scorer, nine of winners in the last decade had landed a Group race as a two-year-old, with six having scored at the top-level.

This trend will be a worry for fans of Dewhurst runner-up Royal Scotsman, who has been beaten four times in his six starts, and recent Craven winner Indestructible, who fails on both trends having not won a Group race as a juvenile and been beaten on three occasions.

Fitness

A trial run ahead of the Group 1 race is not as crucial as you would think and since 2013, only two winners ran as a three-year-old before their 2,000 Guineas victory, with Night Of Thunder (2014) finishing second in the Greenham and Poetic Flare (2021) making a successful reappearance in the Listed Guineas Trial at Leopardstown.

Indestructible: Craven winner out to complete a rare double in the GuineasCredit: Edward Whitaker

All winners of the Craven have been beaten in the Guineas in the last decade, although Master Of The Seas (2021) and last year's winner of the three-year-old trial, Native Trail, both ran big races in second, suggesting that Indestructible can still run a nice race.

Aidan O’Brien has taken four of the last eight runnings, all with horses making their seasonal reappearance, which is a good sign for those who like long-time ante-post favourite Auguste Rodin or Little Big Bear.

Distance

Horses proven at the distance, or just shy at 7f, have a better record than those who spent their juvenile campaign at sprint trips, with the last eight winners of the 2,000 Guineas having scored over either of those trips as a two-year-old.

The last winner not to have raced over at least 7f at two was Island Sands in 1999, which could be something to factor in if you like the chances of well-fancied pair Little Big Bear and Sakheer, or the unbeaten Noble Style, all of whom spent last year racing solely over sprint trips.

Little Big Bear: steps up in trip to a mile for the first time in the 2,000 GuineasCredit: Patrick McCann (racingpost.com/photos)

Draw

There is a definite advantage to being drawn low in the 2,000 Guineas, with seven of the previous ten winners drawn in stall nine or lower.

Field sizes must come into account, however, and the bias over which side is best to race on can shift from year to year.

With this trend, is it best to use some caution, and pay strong attention to the prior races in the card to see which side of the track runners are favouring.

Verdict

Auguste Rodin, fancied by trainer Aidan O'Brien as a horse potentially capable of completing the Triple Crown, looks a rock-solid selection and could prove very hard to beat on his reappearance.

Rated 118 having landed the Group 1 Futurity over a mile on his final juvenile start, Auguste Rodin hits every single one of the trends and, if given a low stall when the draw is made, he looks to have a great chance of giving O'Brien a record-extending 11th win in the race.

Auguste Rodin16:40 Newmarket

View Racecard

Jky: Tnr: A P O'Brien

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Read these next:

2023 Qipco 2,000 Guineas at Newmarket: assessing the top five contenders 

Royal runner Slipofthepen to miss the 2,000 Guineas on Coronation Day with 15 left in contention 

'The plan at the moment is to run on Sunday' - 1,000 Guineas favourite Tahiyra given Newmarket green light 

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