A star-studded Supreme showdown: ratings and analysis for the opening race of the Cheltenham Festival

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This article first appeared in the Racing Post's Cheltenham Festival Ultimate Guide, published last week and available to order here or accessible online for Racing Post+ Ultimate subscribers as part of the Racing Post Weekender digital edition.

We put together a dream team of Cheltenham preview panelists, including Paul Kealy, Maddy Playle and Johnny Dineen, each sharing their advice for every race at the festival.

Alongside the Racing Post's biggest names are a host of special guests including record-breaking amateur rider Patrick Mullins, an interview with The Jukebox Man’s trainer Ben Pauling, as well as Megan Nicholls and Nick Scholfield in our expert jury.

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Willie Mullins is usually the first port of call for a race he has won eight times and although he appeared to be lacking a star novice hurdler for the two-mile division this season, a huge ante-post move for Mighty Park suggests that might not be the case.

Nicky Henderson, who has been the main supporting act to Mullins in the Supreme, looks set to unleash another potential superstar in a race he has won with Constitution Hill, Shishkin and Altior in the last ten years, with Old Park Star heading the market.

Irish trainers have just held sway during that period with six victories to Britain’s four, with Gordon Elliott, perhaps surprisingly, looking to add to just a solitary success in the race.

El Cairos

Age: Six-year-old chestnut gelding
Trainer: Gordon Elliott
Best hurdles RPR: 131
Topspeed: 98
Official: n/a
Jumps form: 1/15-2F1
Odds: 7-1

A horse with a lot of fanfare surrounding him this season, during which he should really be unbeaten in two hurdle starts.

Bought at the David Maxwell dispersal sale for £410,000 having shown top form in bumpers, including when fifth in last season’s Champion Bumper, he looked like he was going to win easily on his hurdles debut at Leopardstown over Christmas but dramatically lost his legs a few strides after jumping the last and ended up on the ground. He duly made amends a month later at Thurles, but only after surviving a last-flight blunder.

He has run only in maidens over hurdles and won’t get away with such errors at Cheltenham, but the growing confidence from his team is infectious, with jockey Jack Kennedy calling El Cairos one of the fastest horses he has sat on and trainer Gordon Elliott saying “he’s rapid” and “we haven’t had too many quicker than him”.

Star rating (out of five): ✪ ✪ ✪ 

El Cairos13:20 Cheltenham

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Jky: Tnr: Gordon Elliott

Idaho Sun

Age: Six-year-old bay gelding
Trainer: Harry Fry
Best hurdles RPR: 143
Topspeed: 140
Official: 141
Jumps form: 116-111
Odds: 14-1

The only one of the British-trained contenders to have won a Grade 1, courtesy of his victory in the Formby Novices’ Hurdle at Aintree on Boxing Day.

He might have been better suited than Mydaddypaddy to the reduced jumping test due to the low sun and he also benefited from a prominent racing position, but he still managed to take the scalp of the odds-on favourite in a fairly comfortable manner.

It was his first proper test over hurdles, following wins at Fontwell and Bangor, and he passed it with flying colours. He has experience of the festival too, having finished sixth in last season’s Champion Bumper, which is his only defeat in six starts.

Star rating: ✪ ✪ ✪ ✪

Idaho Sun13:20 Cheltenham

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Jky: Tnr: Harry Fry

Mighty Park

Age: Five-year-old bay gelding
Trainer: Willie Mullins
Best hurdles RPR: 148
Topspeed: 107
Official: n/a
Jumps form: 2-1
Odds: 9-2

The shortest-priced of the Willie Mullins contenders with his odds shortening to 9-2 from around 16-1 in recent weeks. The market previously suggested the Turners was looking more likely but that could be about to change if the betting is any guide.

Delayed a first start over Christmas by colic, the JP McManus-owned five-year-old made his debut at Fairyhouse in February and left a big impression when bolting up by 38 lengths.

It's hard to know actually what to make of that but if connections are willing to pitch him into a race as deep as this that would speak volumes for a horse Mullins has already compared to Faugheen. 

Star rating: ✪ ✪ ✪ 

Mighty Park13:20 Cheltenham

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Jky: Tnr: W P Mullins

Mydaddypaddy

Age: Five-year-old bay gelding
Trainer: Dan Skelton
Best hurdles RPR: 140
Topspeed: 137
Official: 138
Jumps form: 1-112
Odds: 10-1

Went into the Formby Novices’ Hurdle as favourite for the Supreme but lost that market position after a three-and-a-quarter-length defeat to Idaho Sun.

Having jumped impressively when winning at Carlisle and Haydock he was likely inconvenienced by the omission of four of the nine hurdles at Aintree because of the low sun.

He can be forgiven that, particularly as the winner possesses smart bumper form, and he is certainly worth another chance.

That was also his first defeat in four runs – he won his sole bumper start last season – and trainer Dan Skelton has not lost faith in his five-year-old, who carries the colours of Dermot Hanafin, whose Cinders And Ashes won the Supreme in 2012.

Star rating: ✪ ✪ ✪ 

Mydaddypaddy13:20 Cheltenham

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Jky: Tnr: Dan Skelton

Cheltenham Festival betting offer: get 33-1 on Dan Skelton to train a winner

Old Park Star

Age: Six-year-old bay gelding
Trainer: Nicky Henderson
Best hurdles RPR: 152
Topspeed: 123
Official: 151
Jumps form: 323-111
Odds: 2-1

Placed in three bumpers last season for Paul Nicholls before being switched by his owners to Nicky Henderson, for whom he is a perfect 3-3 over hurdles.

After making a successful hurdles debut at Kempton, the first true sign of his box-office potential came when winning at Cheltenham in December – albeit on the New course – with a sublime performance that surprised even his trainer.

He backed that up in no uncertain terms with an 18-length defeat of Listed winner Hurricane Pat in the Rossington Main at Haydock, after which Nico de Boinville described his turn of foot as “devastating”.

A strong traveller and neat jumper, he is yet to contest a Grade 1. However, he is the one to beat on Racing Post Ratings, boasting the same RPR as Constitution Hill before he won the Supreme (152), although not as high as Henderson’s two other most recent winners of the race, Shishkin (154) and Altior (157).

Star rating: ✪ ✪ ✪ ✪ ✪

Old Park Star13:20 Cheltenham

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Jky: Tnr: Nicky Henderson

Sober Glory

Age: Six-year-old bay gelding
Trainer: Philip Hobbs and Johnson White
Best hurdles RPR: 148
Topspeed: 144
Official: 148
Jumps form: 1111-1411
Odds: 14-1

The most experienced of the leading candidates, having won six of his seven starts. His sole defeat came with a change to hold-up tactics when well beaten as the 4-7 favourite in a Listed race at Sandown in December, but he got back on track with two novice wins at Newbury, latterly when making light of a 10lb penalty for a 27-length romp.

All three of his hurdles victories have been achieved by double-figure margins after making all and he looks the likely pace angle to the race.

This represents a big step up in class but he’ll go there battle-hardened and with an each-way chance, particularly if you’re willing to forgive him his Sandown flop.

Star rating: ✪ ✪ ✪

Sober Glory13:20 Cheltenham

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Jky: Tnr: Philip Hobbs & Johnson White

Talk The Talk

Age: Five-year-old chestnut gelding
Trainer: Joseph O'Brien
Best hurdles RPR: 147
Topspeed: 122
Official: n/a
Jumps form: 2-11F1
Odds: 5-1

Ireland’s top two-mile novice after winning the Grade 1 at the Dublin Racing Festival by a short head from Ballyfad. The margin of victory might have been narrow but he did remarkably well, as he was set a stern task by his jockey before coming from off the pace and widest of all to get up just on the line.

It was compensation for his last-flight fall at Leopardstown over Christmas when he looked the likely winner. Before that he won his two previous hurdles starts – including a Grade 3 at Fairyhouse – for Joseph O’Brien, having moved from Stuart Crawford, who ran him last season in a Newbury bumper to finish second on his debut.

O’Brien reportedly called the five-year-old “the best young jumping horse he has ever trained” before the DRF and afterwards he pointed towards the Supreme rather than stepping up in trip for the 2m5f Turners.

Star rating: ✪ ✪ ✪ ✪

Talk The Talk13:20 Cheltenham

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Jky: Tnr: Joseph Patrick O'Brien

Others to consider

Much will depend on how Willie Mullins shuffles his pack, but Leader D’Allier, who was second to Ballyfad on his debut for the trainer before getting off the mark at Punchestown in January, could run here rather than the Turners, while King Rasko Grey appears to be in line for the longer race. The JP McManus-owned Proactif, a leading Triumph Hurdle hope, has the option of the Supreme. 

Gordon Elliott has back-up to El Cairos, but Ballyfad and Skylight Hustle look to be heading for the Turners. Baron Noir, who beat El Cairos in a Punchestown festival bumper last season and has won two of his three hurdles starts, is interesting among those at bigger prices.

Supreme Novices' Hurdle verdict and 1-2-3 prediction

When Nicky Henderson has a good one for the Supreme he rarely misses and OLD PARK STAR looks the latest major talent off the Seven Barrows production line. He has simply taken the breath away on his last two starts, at Cheltenham and at Haydock in the Grade 2 Rossington Main. Although he will be taking on proven Grade 1 performers this time, there should be more to come. Having already won at the highest level and gained experience of the track in last season’s Champion Bumper, Idaho Sun looks the value for anyone seeking an each-way alternative to the favourite. There was a lot to like about Talk The Talk’s Leopardstown success and he should be the pick of the Irish.

1 Old Park Star
2 Idaho Sun
3 Talk The Talk

Old Park Star13:20 Cheltenham

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Jky: Tnr: Nicky Henderson

Read more:

Supreme 'the more likely option' for Talk The Talk says Joseph O'Brien despite Turners gamble 

Champion Hurdle in focus: star ratings and analysis for the main event on day one at the Cheltenham Festival 

Moray Smith Live! Put your questions to the pro punter for an exclusive live chat with subscribers on Cheltenham Eve 

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