Wimbledon men's quarter-finals betting previews & tips

Day nine
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The Wimbledon men's quarter-finals make for some tough picks, although it may help punters to keep in mind the outright betting which has Novak Djokovic at 8-11 and Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal both 7-2 shots, then it's an almighty leap to 40-1 Roberto Bautista Agut, 66-1 pair Kei Nishikori and Sam Querrey, 80-1 David Goffin and 100-1 Guido Pella.

Outright markets, particularly at an advanced stage of a tournament, offer a helpful guide and sometimes it pays not to stray far from it when it comes to match betting.

Are the big three ready to relinquish their grip on men's tennis? It certainly doesn't look like it.

Novak Djokovic and Roger Federer take on David Goffin and Kei Nishikori, and while both outsiders are playing well, neither would win awards when it comes to power on court.

Rafael Nadal, meanwhile, is reaping the rewards for his fine tournament preparation – he arrived in London early in the week before the tournament started – and he too looks likely to have too much variation in his game for big-serving Sam Querrey.

Djokovic v Goffin

Djokovic still holds the aces then, but it may pay to remember that Goffin has got his back in good order again under the eye of coach Thomas Johansson, a major singles winner in his playing days.

Goffin trails 5-1 in their personal series, but the talented Belgian won their latest meeeting – their only one this season – in three close sets on clay in the Monte Carlo Masters.

The status quo is likely to be restored on grass, but Goffin is no fly-by-night. He probably knows what's needed, although producing it against the Serb, who has taken tennis to a new level, is a different story.

Perhaps the best way of punting the match is via total-games handicaps or total games over/under markets. While it's difficult to have strong views on whether or not Goffin can win at least a set, backing the clash to feature over 29.5 games could offer a window of opportunity.

Recommendation
Over 29.5 games
1pt 9-13 RedZone

Pella v Bautista Agut

It's hugely impressive the way Bautista Agut applies himself to a task and the Spaniard has waltzed through the first rounds without dropping a set.

Because of that the 23rd seed is only a shade of odds-against to see off Pella in straight sets, although the Argentinian has claims of winning at least a set after ousting Kevin Anderson in straight sets and fighting back to pip 2016 Wimbledon finalist Milos Raonic 3-6 4-6 6-3 7-6 8-6 in round four.

Rather than add the uncertain variable about Pella winning at least a set against Bautista Agut, it may be wiser to side with the favourite on total-games handicaps.

RBA is asked to successfully concede 26th seed Pella a start of 5.5 games and that could be the way to go.

Recommendation
R Bautista Agut -5.5 games
1pt 4-5 Betfred, Betway

Querrey v Nadal

Querrey won his latest match with Nadal 6-3 7-6 in Acapulco in 2017, but while the Californian is certainly a capable performer it will be a surprise if the Spanish ace fails to dominate the rallies in their first grass-court meeting.

After a few crisis years at the All England Club since winning his two singles titles, Nadal has done well to steady the ship and regain the ability to boss the vast majority of his opponents on the green terrain.

He's 33 now so that may not be the case for many more years to come, but for now Nadal looks to be in a good place following his French Open victory and he has held sway at the All England Club over better players than Querrey down the years.

Even though Querrey, who defeated fifth seed Dominic Thiem in round one, is expected to fire down a healthy tally of aces, Nadal is a shade of odds-on to oblige in straight sets and that can be considered.

Conserving energy is hugely important for the market leaders and the Majorcan will know that only too well.

But it's no better than 1-2 that the clash features at least one tiebreak, so prospective set-betting punters should give it plenty of thought before playing. Of course, it may well be the case that oddsmakers quoting the best price about a tiebreak occur­ring are those most confident about Nadal sweeping to victory and keeping a 7-6 off his card.

Nadal’s only dropped set in this year's tournament came against Nick Kyrgios in his toughest early-round encounter, but slight preference is for supporting the favourite to make light of a handicap concession of 5.5 games.

Recommendation
R Nadal -5.5 games
1pt 8-11 bet365, Betfred

Click here to back Nadal on the handicap with Hills

Nishikori v Federer

Like Djokovic against Goffin, Federer may have to knuckle down to things against Nishikori but we've been here before and seen the Swiss ace pass innumerable similar tests.

If this were a two-setter in Stuttgart or Halle, Nishikori might have a decent shout of upsetting the veteran but at Wimbledon it's almost always a different matter.

Punters probably should view Nishikori as a tougher opponent than Matteo Berrettini, who, after a fine grass campaign, offered virtually nothing in a 6-1 6-2 6-2 loss to Federer at the All England Club on Monday.

Or perhaps Federer had done his statistical homework against the Italian and was ready for everything the Stuttgart champion could throw at him.

In some ways, Federer, who turns 38 next month, could be the most vulnerable of the big three in the last eight at Wimbledon, but as the betting suggests he's still likely to produce the goods against an opponent who has beaten him three times in ten matches.

Nishikori, who has played plenty of 6-4 sets with Federer and took the great man to five sets in their only previous major meeting in the 2017 Australian Open, may not fold the way Berrettini did in the last 16 and so it could pay to back the match to last for over 32.5 games.

Recommendation
Over 32.5 games
1pt 5-7 RedZone

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