ATP Miami Open predictions, odds and tennis betting tips: De Minaur has the class to down big guns

Where to watch the ATP Miami Open

Live on Sky Sports Tennis, from 3pm Wednesday

Best bets

Alex de Minaur
1pt each-way 20-1 BoyleSports

Tommy Paul
0.5pt each-way 40-1 general

ATP Miami Open predictions

Carlos Alcaraz has already achieved a great deal in his short career and the Spaniard next takes aim at the elusive Sunshine Double when he bids to add the Miami Open title to the Indian Wells crown he successfully retained on Sunday.

Alcaraz, back in form after months of sub-par performances by his immense standards, is 21-10 to become only the eighth male player to achieve that feat and the first since Roger Federer in 2017.

The 20-year-old knows how to win at the Hard Rock Stadium, claiming this Masters 1000 title in 2022, and he's the one to beat having seen off principal Miami rivals Jannik Sinner and Daniil Medvedev in Indian Wells.

However, there were question marks over Alcaraz's fitness heading into the California event and although he was surprised with how well his body held up, it could prove a big test for him to win six more matches in the stifling Miami heat.

Sinner, the Australian Open hero and the best player of the season to date, is the most viable alternative at 11-4 but he picked up wrist and leg injuries in losing out in the Indian Wells semi-finals so the top two could both be vulnerable.

Defending champion Medvedev has the remarkable record of having never won the same event more than once despite boasting 20 ATP Tour titles so it could pay to take a couple of swings at bigger-priced runners, starting with Alex de Minaur.

Sinner aside, De Minaur has arguably been the form player of 2024 and the Aussie ace is well equipped to cope with conditions given that he's one of the fittest competitors on the tour.

He is yet to shine in this event but is performing better than ever this year having reached the Rotterdam Open final, losing out to Sinner, before mounting a successful defence of his Mexican Open title.

Housed in the top half of the draw alongside Alcaraz, De Minaur has a straightforward route to the latter rounds, where he will hope that the Spaniard doesn't lie in wait.

In the bottom half, Tommy Paul looks decent each-way value, particularly if Sinner is not at 100 per cent.

That pair are on course to collide in the fourth round and it's not impossible that Paul could edge past the Italian having beaten him on the Eastbourne grass in 2022.

Paul, a Florida resident who won't mind the conditions, won the Dallas Open in February, reached the Delray Beach final the following week, then lost to Medvedev in the semis at Indian Wells.

John Isner and Hubert Hurkacz have won this title in recent years and Paul fits the bill as another potential surprise champion.

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