Saturday rugby union: European Champions Cup betting verdicts

Toulon v Edinburgh
BT Sport 2, 5.30pm Saturday

Any sort of win next week at home to Montpellier should mean that Edinburgh are in the quarter-finals but that does not mean that head coach Richard Cockerill will be content at any laxity in Toulon and they look worth a wager with a five-point start.

Toulon are in last-chance saloon but that shock home defeat by Newcastle in round one is not the only time in recent seasons that they have struggled to assert their class and power.

Edinburgh blitzed their round-two meeting 40-14 and were intense and destructive in both Pro14 1872 Cup wins over Glasgow before last week’s stroll at Murrayfield against the Kings.

Recommendation
Edinburgh +5
1pt Evs Coral, Hills, Ladbrokes

Scarlets v Leicester
BT Sport 3, 5.30pm Saturday

After back-to-back December defeats both injury-hit Scarlets and Leicester have accepted early European exits and prioritised future league assignments.

One Tiger sure to be primed to perform at Parc y Scarlets will be Wales outside-back Jonah Holmes and 7-4 is a fair price for a 15th try in 25 club appearances.

Recommendation
J Holmes to score a try
1pt 7-4 bet365

Ulster v Racing 92
BT Sport 2, 3.15pm Saturday

Like compatriots Toulouse, last year’s runners-up Racing 92 have won all four matches this European campaign including a 44-12 stroll over Ulster at La Defense Arena in round two.

However, the Ulster outfit that travelled to Paris was weakened by injury and their away results this season as a whole have reflected a laissez-faire attitude to away days.

Belfast results have continued to be largely decent, especially their European wins over Leicester and Scarlets, and hard-fought Pro14 recent successes over Munster and Cardiff suggest another strong effort at a sure-to-be-electric Kingspan Stadium.

Recommendation
Ulster +4
1pt Evs Hills

Bath v Wasps
BT Sport 3, 3.15pm Saturday

With both teams eliminated this should be an exciting encounter at the Rec and Bath number eight Zach Mercer can barge over.

Mobile Mercer crossed in the first half before it all went wrong last Saturday at Worcester and will be keen to impress England head coach Eddie Jones.

Recommendation
Z Mercer to score a try
1pt 7-2 Betfair

Leinster v Toulouse
BT Sport 2/Channel 4, 1pm Saturday

Toulouse have not enjoyed a winning streak in Europe as good as their current one since 2011. They go to Dublin in fine fettle in the Top 14 with a home shutout of Toulon just one of a number of notable recent results.

Leinster got revenge in the 2011 semi-finals for a 2010 last-four loss and, with a formidable Aviva Stadium record, the current continental and Pro14 kings are expected to avenge October’s 28-27 reverse at Stade Ernest Wallon with something to spare.

The best-value bet could be the hosts to win another tight tussle. Tournament stats suggest that there will be little edge at the set-piece and breakdown and the visitors would love a losing bonus.

Recommendation
Leinster to win by one to 12 points
1pt 7-4 general

Montpellier v Newcastle
BT Sport 3, 1pm Saturday

In the face of a hard start to the Premiership season, Newcastle began their European campaign brightly by stunning Toulon at Stade Mayol and then beating Montpellier 23-20 at Kingston Park courtesy of a last-play try.

However, pack injuries meant that the Falcons were twice beaten easily last month by Edinburgh and their domestic struggles must have sapped morale. And a competition-high penalty count also makes try-bonus hunters Montpellier appeal despite giving up 16 points.

Recommendation
Montpellier -16
1pt Evs Coral, Ladbrokes

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