Premiership season predictions, rugby union tips and odds: Chiefs to go well

Rugby union predictions, best bets and analysis for the Gallagher Premiership season, which starts on Friday.

Best bet

Exeter to top the regular-season table
3pts 7-4 Betfair, Paddy Power

Two years ago Saracens stood at the top of the rugby world, English and European champions and odds-on to retain their Premiership crown.

But a huge points deduction for financial irregularities sent them down to the Championship and allowed Exeter to usurp their standing - in 2020 it was the Chiefs who lifted the Premiership and European Champions Cup.

Another season of Exeter dominance was predicted but never arrived as Bristol pipped the Chiefs to top spot in the regular season last time and Harlequins stunned them 40-38 in the final.

And now Sarries are back after cruising to the Championship title and they are vying for favouritism to pick up where they left off with a title success in what could be the closest fought race for years.

Season preview

Saracens are the narrowest of favourites to win next June's Premiership grand final at Twickenham but Exeter get the nod from bookmakers to finish top of the pile after an extended 26 rounds.

And given the consistency they have shown over the years plus a change to the laws introduced this year, they look good to claim first place.

Sarries appeared in five of six finals from 2014 to 2019, winning four of them, but took different routes to get there. They have been happy to do enough over the course of the season and sharpen their game for the playoffs.

They played only nine regular-season games in the Championship last season, and are only slowly returning to full strength having sent a strong contingent on the Lions tour this summer, while other players are returning from loan spells at other clubs last season.

It may take them time to get in a winning groove and allow other clubs a headstart, but their eye will be on the long game and peaking in May and June.

Exeter have a settled squad with relatively low player turnover in the summer. They will be smarting from being upstaged last season and director of rugby Rob Baxter is such a precise and calculating character that he will have everything in place for a strong showing.

And in their favour is a new facet of the game - the 50:22 law, which means that if a player kicks from inside his own half and the ball bounces before going into touch in the opposition 22, the team who kicked get the throw-in to the resulting lineout.

It's an adaptation of the 40:20 from rugby league and screams advantage Exeter, who have made a trademark of scoring from attacking lineouts and now can dictate play to win more of them.

Bristol finished top of the table last season and head coach Pat Lam says he is happy with the continuity in his squad. They suffered just four defeats last season but two of those were against Sale, whose suffocating physical tactics may be emulated by other teams when facing the Bears this year, while they also lost to Exeter at home late on in the campaign.

Sale are odds-on to complete the top four and they will always be tough to beat, but their lack of attacking edge may make it hard for them to push right to the top of the standings.

Champions Harlequins are odds-against even to make the top four this time, though they were just as unfancied at the start of last season's playoffs, going off 9-1 outsiders of four.

At the time their leaky defence seemed a liability going into a knockout format - only two teams including bottom side Worcester gave up more than their 77 tries over the last campaign - and they were nearly caught out again in the final, prevailing 40-38.

Quins are promising to entertain again but it's hard to see that as a formula for the consistent success needed to reach the top.

It's 40-1 bar those five clubs in the regular-season betting, and while Wasps, Leicester, Bath and Northampton can all justifiably target the playoffs, none won more than half their games last term and it would take a sizeable step up to threaten the very top.

There's no relegation again this term so less pressure on the sides likely to fill the bottom places. Worcester finished at the foot last season and although the official standings show four wins, three were awarded after fixtures had to be called off and they won only once on the pitch - by a single point over London Irish in round one. They are favourites to prop up the table again.

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