Dubai Desert Classic: final-round tips at the Emirates Club

TV: Sky Sports Golf, 8.30am Sunday

Bryson DeChambeau, the ante-post 10-1 favourite for the Dubai Desert Classic, has shortened to 10-11 through 54 holes at the Emirates Club.

DeChambeau has reached 16 under par with a round to go, enough for a one-shot lead going into Sunday. Defending champion Haotong Li, who beat Rory McIlroy in a thrilling duel for the title 12 months ago, is alone in second place.

Resurgent veteran Ernie Els is tied for third spot, two further shots off the pace, alongside the prolific Matt Wallace. In the last 11 months, Wallace has won three times on the European Tour.

Leaderboard

-16 Bryson DeChambeau
-15 Haotong Li
-13 Matt Wallace, Ernie Els
-12 Kalle Samooja, Thorbjorn Olesen, Alvaro Quiros, Lucas Herbert
-11 Jordan Smith, Matt Fitzpatrick, Jason Scrivener
-10 Andrew Johnston, Tommy Fleetwood, Byeong Hun An, Lee Westwood, Sergio Garcia, George Coetzee, Matthieu Pavon

Best odds

10-11 B DeChambeau, 100-30 H Li, 12 M Wallace, 20 T Olesen, 28 E Els, L Herbert, 40 M Fitzpatrick, A Quiros, 50 J Smith, 66 T Fleetwood, J Scrivener, 80 bar

Final-day tips

Bryson DeChambeau has won five US Tour titles, four of which have come in the last eight months, and the increasingly confident 25-year-old is clearly the man to beat having assumed a lead through three rounds in Dubai.

DeChambeau is yet to get off the mark on the European Tour – and blew a golden chance in the European Open at the end of July – but four Stateside successes have added several layers of self-belief since that final-round implosion in Germany.

DeChambeau is the world number five and has been strutting around Dubai with the knowledge that he is by far the highest ranked player in attendance. This is an excellent winning chance, but a disappointing par five at the final hole of round three has encouraged the chasing pack.

The DeChambeau price of 10-11 looks about right – he should be tough to beat but it is not a done deal – and in-running punters seeking a more sporting wager at this stage should consider Haotong Li, Matt Wallace, Thorbjorn Olesen or Jordan Smith.

Li knows he can stare down world-class opposition on this course and triumph – Rory McIlroy has a tremendous record at the Emirates and it was a phenomenal effort from Li to overcome the former world number one 12 months ago. But a best-price 100-30 does not seem to adequately reflect what happened the last time Li went eyeball-to-eyeball for a European Tour title. The meek playoff surrender to Justin Rose in the Turkish Airlines Open was less than three months ago and the scars may not have healed.

Wallace and Olesen are both prolific European Tour champions who have shown themselves to be clinical in contention, while Smith has found form and relishes desert golf. The closest of the trio to the lead is Wallace, who may be the best investment at this stage.

Wallace compiled a thoroughly professional and flawless back-nine in round three, making a birdie at each of the three par-fives and par at the other holes to get within three shots of DeChambeau. The feisty and cocksure 28-year-old will relish this opportunity.

Outright recommendation
M Wallace
1pt each-way 12-1 bet365, Sky Bet

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