Steve Palmer's Dubai Invitational predictions and free golf betting tips

When to bet 

By 4.35am on Thursday

Where to watch the Dubai Invitational

Live on Sky Sports Golf from 7.30am on Thursday

Steve Palmer's Dubai Invitational predictions

Yannik Paul
2pts each-way 33-1 Betfair, Power

Jorge Campillo
1.5pts each-way 45-1 bet365

Nathan Kimsey
1pt each-way 50-1 bet365

Click to add Steve's tips to your bet365 betslip

Rory McIlroy is a general 5-2 chance to win the Dubai Invitational this week, but the favourite has not been sighted since finishing 22nd of 50 runners in the DP World Tour Championship in the middle of November.

McIlroy, who put a new driver in his bag for the DPWT Championship, may see this week's low-key gathering as a gentle warm-up for next week's Dubai Desert Classic Rolex Series event at a venue he relishes.

Dubai Creek – a short layout with much more water in play than is typical at desert locations – does not lend itself to McIlroy's strengths. He may outclass this week's field on his first appearance of the year, but appears poor value to do so.

Steve Palmer's top tip

Yannik Paul 33-1

Dubai Creek is a test of precision, underlined by the leaderboards in the Desert Classics there, the last of which was won by Jose Coceres. The accurate Argentine churned out greens in regulation and kept a tidy scorecard – and Yannik Paul can perform a similar role this week.

Paul has become one of the most dependable ball-strikers on the DP World Tour. He is relatively straight off the tee and laserlike on approach. The German can be fancied to avoid the watery graves which will destroy many a title challenge this week.

Paul came close to qualifying for the Ryder Cup last year. He won the Mallorca Open in October 2022 and has had two runner-up finishes on the DPWT since. Sixth place in the French Open in September was another eyecatching effort, given the similarities between Le Golf National and Dubai Creek – both tests of accuracy with water hazards everywhere.

Paul's last two visits to the Middle East were solid – 27th place in both the Qatar Masters and the DPWT Championship – and he is ultra-comfortable playing desert golf. He lived in Colorado for many years – he went to university there – and won the Arizona Open in 2020.

Paul enjoyed his engagement party in Dubai in November, so is bursting with positive vibes about this location, and the 29-year-old may have more reason to celebrate on Sunday.

Next best bet

Jorge Campillo 45-1

Middle East adventures have always been fun for Jorge Campillo, who won the Qatar Masters in 2020. The Spaniard has twice finished second in that event, too, most recently in October last year when losing a playoff to Sami Valimaki.

Campillo was fourth in the 2014 Oman Open, ninth in the 2016 DPWT Championship and second in the 2019 Oman Open, and this proven desert rat is ideally suited to the demands of Dubai Creek. The three-time DPWT champion posted six top-tens on the DPWT last year, including victory in the Kenya Open.

Other selection

Nathan Kimsey 50-1

Improving 30-year-old Englishman, Nathan Kimsey, is an accurate driver who can find fairways and greens at Dubai Creek and threaten a maiden DPWT title. The Boston man won twice on the Challenge Tour in 2022.

Kimsey lost a playoff for the Barbasol Championship – an event co-sanctioned with the PGA Tour – in July last year. That bold Stateside effort was followed by third place in the Spanish Open in October. This solid operator looks well capable of taking advantage if the market leaders flop.

Dubai Creek course guide

Course Dubai Creek Resort, Dubai, United Arab Emirates
Prize money $2.5m ($416,750 to the winner)
Length 7,059 yards
Par 71 – three par-fives; 11 par-fours; four par-threes
Field 60 (no cut)
Highest-ranked players in field (world ranking in brackets) Rory McIlroy (2), Tommy Fleetwood (15), Ryan Fox (32), Adrian Meronk (49), Nicolai Hojgaard (51)
Course records - 72 holes 274 Jose Coceres (2000 Dubai Desert Classic); 18 holes 63 Jarmo Sandelin (2000 Dubai Desert Classic)

When to bet By 4.35am on Thursday

When to watch Live on Sky Sports Golf from 7.30am on Thursday

Time difference Dubai is four hours ahead of the UK and Ireland

Course type Desert

Course overview Dubai Creek hosted the Dubai Desert Classic in 1999 and 2000, with David Howell and Jose Coceres winning the events. The front nine has been revised since then, but the back nine is a layout which has stood the test of time. The course opened in 1993 and has always been in immaculate condition. Lush fairways run alongside the creek. There is more water in play than for typical desert layouts and the rough is grown to counter the course's lack of length. This is a pro-am, with 60 amateurs taking part

Weather forecast Sunny and pleasant with gentle breezes throughout

Type of player suited to the challenge The leaderboards from the Desert Classics at Dubai Creek show that accuracy wins over power at this venue. Jose Coceres, the 2000 champion, was a neat and tidy player, and just behind him that week were Paul McGinley, Patrik Sjoland, Jamie Spence and Paul Lawrie. Support straight-hitters who putt well

Key attribute Accuracy

Click for free bets and betting offers from the Racing Post

Commercial notice: This article contains affiliate links. Offers are handpicked and come from operators our experts have first-hand experience of. Opening an account via one of these links will earn revenue for the Racing Post, which will be used to continue producing our award-winning coverage of horseracing and sports betting.