Leeds v Southampton predictions: Saints equipped to end their poor run

Free football tips, best bets and analysis for Leeds v Southampton in the Premier League on Tuesday

Where to watch

Sky Sports Premier League & Main Event, 6pm, Tuesday

Best bet

Southampton
1pt 23-10 Betfred

Team news

Leeds
Kalvin Phillips, Robin Koch, Rodrigo and Gaetano Berardi are out. Diego Llorente is available.

Southampton
Stuart Armstrong is rated 50-50. Kyle Walker-Peters, Ibrahima Diallo, Theo Walcott, Will Smallbone and Michael Obafemi are out.

Match preview

Leeds, who don't win in the absence of Kalvin Phillips, against Southampton, who don't win at all, doesn’t look the easiest of headscratchers for punters.

The temptation is to err on the side of caution and back the draw, although there is a case for preferring Saints, who are without a win in seven, at a decent price.

The essential argument is that they aren't as bad as their current form figures would have us believe. Remember this is a team who were top of the table – albeit briefly – in the autumn and who can still send out a strong side.

That side is getting stronger with one or two players coming back from injury and if you take out their horror show against Manchester United they have been pretty well organised.

For example, they were played off the park by a bright and energetic Chelsea on Saturday yet hardly offered Thomas Tuchel's men a glimpse of goal.

And they have firepower of their own now. We know about Danny Ings, who has been burdened with too much responsibility, but it looks like Takumi Minamino, who has bagged two in three since moving from Liverpool, can share the load.

Leeds concede way too many goals from set-plays – 11 is a joint league high. And Saints boast one of the best dead-ball merchants in the top flight in James Ward-Prowse, a trio of giant defenders and, perhaps unsurprisingly therefore, have scored more goals from set-pieces than any other team.

And irrespective of the notion that a team is bigger than one player, the reality is Leeds have lost five in a row minus Kalvin Phillips who seems almost uniquely qualified in Marcelo Bielsa's side to be able to play that role in front of the back four.

Key stat

Leeds have lost their last five league matches in the absence of Kalvin Phillips

Not got a bet365 account? Sign up today and get up to £100 in bet credits

Up to £100 in Bet Credits for new customers at bet365. Min deposit £5. Bet Credits available for use upon settlement of bets to value of qualifying deposit. Min odds, bet and payment method exclusions apply. Returns exclude Bet Credits stake. Time limits and T&Cs apply.

CLAIM OFFER HERE

MORE FREE BETS

Today's top sports betting stories

Follow us on Twitter @racingpostsport