Dan Childs analyses the Premier League title race after Liverpool beat Man City

Premier League titles do not tend to be decided in November but Liverpool's 3-1 victory over Manchester City on Sunday felt hugely significant and has laid a solid platform for the Reds to go on and land their first domestic league title in 30 years.

In his post-match interview a frustrated Pep Guardiola said: "There are three teams that have more chances to win the Premier League."

That assessment is not shared by bookmakers, who still envisage a two-runner title race with Liverpool 2-5 favourites, City 5-2 and Chelsea and Leicester both at 40-1.

Last season's league campaign offers hopes for City, who went into the new year with a seven-point deficit but ended up winning the title by one point.

The current nine-point gap between Liverpool and City after 12 games may seem little more significant than a seven-point advantage after 20, but the big worry for Guardiola is that there is every chance of the lead being extended by the end of 2019.

Liverpool have had the tougher fixture list, playing against all of the other big-six teams, while City have faced just two of them – Tottenham at home and Liverpool away. The Reds have also played in-form Leicester, winning 2-1 at Anfield, while City have not.

The run-up to Christmas is favourable for Liverpool, who take on six teams from outside the top eight. Over the same period City will play five top-half sides, including home matches against Chelsea, Manchester United and Leicester and a trip to Arsenal.

City will be favourites to win all of those games but they represent significant hurdles and just one more slip-up could see Liverpool out of sight with a double-figure points advantage.

Bet365 go 12-1 about the Reds winning the title by ten or more points. It is 11-4 that their winning margin is between one and three points, 12-1 that they top the table on goal difference, and 2-1 that they don't win the title.

Instead of asking whether City will retain their crown, it may be more pertinent to assess whether they can finish in the top two?

Sky Bet go 1-8 Liverpool and City in their dual-forecast market, with Liverpool and Chelsea priced up at 9-1 and Liverpool and Leicester quoted at 14-1.

Respect for City remains high due to their relentless 2017-18 and 2018-19 campaigns when they amassed points tallies of 100 and 98.

But they are averaging just 2.08 points per game this term and are on course to finish with just 79 points. City amassed 78 points in 2016-17 (Guardiola's first season at the club) and were slightly better off at this stage with 27 points from 12 games.

There are fine margins in football and City will point to the Trent Alexander-Arnold handball appeal as a crucial moment in Sunday's game. However, it was far from a clear-cut decision for referee Michael Oliver and should not overshadow the real reasons they lost.

City were poor at the back again and have conceded 13 league goals – one more than neighbours Manchester United.

The blame for their defensive weakness has to lie with the manager, who failed to source a replacement for Vincent Kompany.

There are three senior centre-backs at the club, Aymeric Laporte, Nicolas Otamendi and John Stones, and only one of them – the injured Laporte – seems to have Guardiola's full confidence.

City's problems could mean they struggle to hold off Chelsea and Leicester, who are 1-4 and 8-13 for a top-four finish.

Chelsea are the only team in the league to have taken maximum points from their last six games and they have scope to improve.

Christian Pulisic has only recently broken into the side and key midfielder N'Golo Kante has had injury problems restricting him to just four Premier League starts.

The Blues started the season at odds-against for a top-four finish but look nailed on to be playing Champions League football again next season and have a big opportunity when travelling to Manchester City after the international break.

Leicester are also playing with great confidence and a 26-point tally at this stage of the season is one more than their total after 12 games of the famous 2015-16 title-winning campaign.

The Foxes' first 11 will cause problems for any opponents but there are doubts over their squad strength and that could undermine their push for a Champions League place.

Top scorer Jamie Vardy and underrated midfielder Wilfred Ndidi look indispensable for Leicester and will need to stay fit if they are to keep pace with City and Chelsea.

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