Kevin Pullein: Best bet of the weekend and thought for the week

Best bet

Under 5.5 Asian total cards in Sevilla v Valladolid
1pt 2.0 bet365

Bet365 may have underestimated the chance of a low number of cards in the La Liga game between Sevilla and Valladolid.

Back under 5.5 Asian total cards at decimal odds of 2.0 – equivalent to the fractional price of evens. Each yellow will count as one card and each red as two cards.

The number of cards likely to be shown in a match varies, among other things, with the anticipated difference in ability between the teams. The larger that anticipated difference in ability the lower the likely number of cards. Here it is quite large.

Odds in result-related markets imply something like a 63 per cent chance of a Sevilla win, a 24 per cent chance of a draw and a 13 per cent chance of a Valladolid win, and those seem to be in the right ballpark given that Sevilla are 6th out of 20 in the table, which is the sort of place we would expect to find them, and Valladolid are 17th, which is in the area we would expect to find them.

Over the last five seasons in La Liga games with similar results expectations fair decimal odds about under 5.5 Asian total cards would typically have been about 1.825. Those imply a 55 per cent chance of a payout. Decimal odds of 2.0 imply only a 50 per cent chance.

Jesus Gil Manzano is an experienced referee. Across the five seasons 2014-15 to 2018-19 he consistently showed more cards than most of his colleagues – on average almost one card per game more. But he did not in the two seasons before. Nor has he in the season and a bit since.

Gil Manzano has a high cards count in him, and if he delivers another one today the bet will lose. But he might not.

Four of Valladolid’s last five games have featured more than 5.5 Asian total cards, but overall this season they have not been involved in more high makeups than we should have anticipated from them.

Twice before in the last couple of months I suggested backing a low cards count in a Sevilla game. They have been involved in other games that generated high numbers of cards, and they will be again – maybe today. But there do appear to be grounds for thinking the chance of under 5.5 Asian total cards may be better then bet365 envisage.

Thought for the week

Sam Allardyce is the new manager of West Brom. He starts on Sunday in a Midlands derby against Aston Villa.

Allardyce is a good and experienced manager who has never been relegated from the Premier League. Will West Brom’s results improve? Probably.

Allow me to explain that answer, if you will, in a roundabout way.

The ESPN Stats and Information Group analysed the results of the 11 NFL teams who fired a coach during the six seasons 2016 to 2020. Afterwards their win percentage went up from 27 per cent to 40 per cent.

My guess is that before the coach was fired these teams were achieving results that were below reasonable expectations. To some extent, results were likely to have improved anyway.

My research into football suggests that teams who sack their manager during a season get better results afterwards – but the improvement is no greater than for comparable teams in a similar predicament who did not sack their manager.

What are reasonable expectations this season for West Brom? My answer would be 23 points from the remaining 25 games. That is a lot better rate of return than they have got so far, which is seven points from 13 games, but it would still give them an end of season total of just 30 points.

West Brom would probably have to surpass that for Allardyce to maintain his non-relegation record. Overshooting is possible – just as much as undershooting is possible – but overshooting most likely is what it would take.