Ruiz v Joshua 2: big-fight preview, prediction & best bet

Free boxing tips, odds and fight preview for Andy Ruiz v Anthony Joshua 2 for the world heavyweight title in Saudi Arabia.

Where to watch

Sky Box Office, 9pm Saturday

Best bet

Andy Ruiz
2pts 9-4 Betfair, Paddy Power
Back this tip with Paddy Power

Big fight preview

Things are not always as they seem. In June Anthony Joshua, the 2012 Olympic gold medallist and undefeated world heavyweight champion, was a massive favourite to brush aside Andy Ruiz.

Hardly anybody took the fight seriously, why would they? Joshua's huge frame, like a real-life Hercules, towered over the chubby challenger.

UK bookies had Ruiz around 12-1, while reports in the US claim odds of up to 30-1 were on offer for the upset.

A few warned not to write off Ruiz. His former trainer Freddie Roach was one, while Joseph Parker - who has shared a ring with both men - said Ruiz was the hardest puncher he had faced, but their comments largely fell on deaf ears as the mainstream media focused on his love of Snickers chocolate bars.

Whether Joshua fell into the trap of taking him lightly or not is up for debate, but within ten seconds of the first bell it was already clear that Ruiz was better than most of Joshua's previous 22 professional opponents.

Ruiz immediately took centre ring and forced Joshua on to his back foot, a pattern that continued for the rest of the fight.

"Ruiz has been the aggressor," commented Paulie Malignaggi as the first round came to an end.

"Keep it long, keep it long. Don't look for the hooks," Joshua was told by his trainer Rob McCracken.

More on the big fight

• The greatest heavyweight rematches
• Five biggest heavyweight upsets
• Ruiz v Joshua undercard

The second round took a similar path with Ruiz commanding the ring and Joshua trying to pick him off at range. There wasn't much in it. But in the third Joshua found a punch to put Ruiz down for the first time in his career, and it seemed AJ was on track for another routine KO victory.

But things are not always as they seem. Ruiz got straight back to his feet, and went to war. Joshua hit him with a big right hand as he went for the kill, but Ruiz didn't blink and caught Joshua with a huge left hook that sent the giant Brit crashing to the canvas.

Joshua got back to his feet but was clearly in massive trouble.

"His legs are shaky," screamed Matt Macklin at ringside. "It's the speed that has put Joshua in a bad position, not the one-punch power," added Malignaggi, as Ruiz battered Joshua all around the ring before putting together a devastating combo that send AJ sprawling through the ropes and down for a second time.

The Mexican's hand-speed and footwork were simply too good, and when Joshua tried to find his way back into the fight by loading up with big punches Ruiz was already one step ahead and picked him off with well-timed counters.

By the sixth round Joshua looked exhausted while Ruiz was full of energy, and in the seventh AJ was knocked down for a third and fourth time. He was completely broken, spitting out his gum shield and turning his back on the referee, who waved off the fight.

This wasn't a case of Joshua getting caught by a big shot, as Lennox Lewis did against Oliver McCall and Hasim Rahman, or Wladimir Klitschko did against Corrie Sanders.

Joshua was dominated, round after round, put down four times and beaten by a better fighter. There was no lucky punch.

Ruiz took Joshua's best shots, survived and thrived. Joshua couldn't handle Ruiz's combinations and pressure, and crumbled.

We may never know the truth about what kind of problems Joshua has going into that fight. But the evidence is there for all to see - these boxers have already fought, and Ruiz won convincingly.

So how then is Joshua a 4-9 favourite going into the rematch? Are people falling into the same trap as they did in June, despite the evidence?

People are saying Joshua will have different tactics for the rematch, that he will keep the fight at range, move around the ring and be patient. But he knew that going into the first fight and his trainer told him to do that after every round.

AJ has weighed in at the lightest of his career suggesting he will try to stick and move, but he has never had the best movement and is unlikely to have turned into a prime Muhammad Ali inside six months.

Based on the first fight Ruiz has better footwork, faster hands, and superior defence, and he has more experience as a professional.

Added to that, Ruiz has a massive mental advantage going into the rematch. He knows he can hurt Joshua and he knows he can beat him. He knows he can take AJ's biggest punches and he knows that if he gets knocked down he can get up and win.

Joshua, for the first time in his career, knows what it's like to lose. Whether that is a good or a bad thing remains to be seen.

Joshua can win this fight, he is a great boxer and was a fantastic champion. He undoubtedly has the power to stop Ruiz, and he may have the skills to jab and move and win on the scorecards.

But should Joshua be a 4-9 favourite? Backing the fighter who dominated the first contest and won it by devastating knockout makes much more sense.

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