Paul Kealy evaluates Buveur D'Air's long-awaited return in Grade 2 hurdle

The New One Unibet Hurdle (Grade 2) | 1m7½f | 4yo+ | ITV4/RTV

There are more important things than betting when it comes to Buveur D'Air's return from that horrific hoof injury in the 2019 Fighting Fifth Hurdle.

Betting is going to take place anyway, though, so we might as well evaluate the dual Champion Hurdle winner's prospects of coming back with a bang.

Hurdlers in Britain returning from an absence of 365 days or more have just a 5.3 per cent strike-rate (361-6,794) since 2009, although that strike-rate goes up to 14.4 per cent (15-104) for Nicky Henderson-trained runners, which is still some way below the trainer's 24.4 per cent strike-rate in that period.

However, the number of horses who would have enjoyed Buveur D'Air's class edge and advantage at the weights is incredibly small, and those who went off at 1-2 or shorter (he is around 4-9) are 6-8 (75 per cent).

A piece of wood is visible in Buveur D'Air's foot after the second-last in the Fighting FifthCredit: John Grossick (racingpost.com/photos)

'Very serious' splinter injury looks set to end Buveur D'Air's season

Despite being dropped 4lb to 163 after finishing with that piece of wood sticking out of his hoof at Newcastle, Buveur D'Air is still rated 6lb higher than main rival Ballyandy, from whom he receives 6lb, while he gets 3lb from the 149-rated Navajo Pass.

Buveur D'Air's first-time-out form figures in Britain read 211112, the defeats coming in a Newbury bumper in 2015, and that Fighting Fifth at odds of 2-13.

We know last year's winner Ballyandy is a solid mid-150s performer, who will run his race and try to expose the favourite's lack of fitness and match practice, while Donald McCain's youngster Navajo Pass comes here after a big career best, albeit one that came off 142 in a handicap under a 7lb claimer.

If Buveur D'Air was indeed "absolutely amazing" and "unreal" as described by Henderson after a recent awayday, this is still the ten-year-old's to lose, although nobody should blame Nico de Boinville if he's not too hard on him in what will be desperate conditions.

After this test, we can perhaps talk about ten-year-olds in the Champion Hurdle (think Sea Pigeon), but for now let's just hope Buveur D'Air not only throws his hat back into the ring, but returns safe and, just as importantly, perfectly sound.
Race analysis by Paul Kealy

What they say

Nigel Twiston-Davies, trainer of Ballyandy
He has to give weight away to a two-time Champion Hurdle winner so it will be difficult but he's in good form and is quite flexible in terms of the ground. He won on heavy ground at Haydock last year.

Nicky Henderson, trainer of Buveur D'Air
He's been doing great and will come on a lot for the run. It's been a long road back from the injury he picked up at Newcastle in 2019, but it will be great to have him back on the track. Fingers crossed.
Reporting by Jonathan Harding

Read more of Saturday’s previews

Classy senior citizens have great chance to prove you're only as old as you feel (Members' Club)

'Hopefully people see how beautiful Taunton is and head down when they can' (Members' Club)

3.35 Ascot: Politologue, Waiting Patiently and Defi Du Seuil clash in special Clarence House

Clarence House Chase: age is merely a number for top-class two-mile chasers (Members' Club)

1.15 Ascot: Roksana standing in the way of Magic Of Light's hat-trick bid

1.50 Ascot: can highly regarded Arrivederci repay punters' faith with first big-race win?

1.57 Navan: 'She likes going left-handed and she relishes real heavy ground'

2.15 Taunton: 'It's the perfect race for him' – Paul Nicholls eyeing repeat win for Yala Enki

2.40 Haydock: can Royale Pagaille defy top weight and prove a Grade 1 horse in a handicap?

3.00 Ascot: Dashel Drasher might struggle to dominate with front-runners aplenty

Join Members' Club Ultimate and read tipping from the likes of Pricewise and Paul Kealy, all the big interviews and features, daily comment and news analysis – plus our Ultimate Daily newsletter. Click here to sign up.