'He's surprised us by how much he's come forward' - analysis and trainer quotes for competitive sprint handicap

When the All-Weather Championships finals day switched from Lingfield to Newcastle in 2022 it marked a big shift in dynamic, moving from the sharpest all-weather track in Britain to the stiffest. 

Although an ability to see out the trip is imperative on Newcastle’s uphill straight track, that certainly doesn’t rule out horses ridden prominently. The two runnings of the three-year-old sprint staged at this venue have both been well-run but won by horses who sat close to the pace. 

The caveat to that is the fact Newcastle is susceptible to a strong headwind, which favours those able to shelter from it. Meteorological influences aside, however, we are faced with a competitive race, one which, like many on the card, will be run as a handicap for the first time this year. 

On Racing Post Ratings ten of the 11 runners are separated by just 4lb, Havana Ball, the outlier to that, bringing the least exposed profile to the table. Blue Prince and Sommelier are tied in closely together, separated by just half a length here on New Year’s Day. 

Although Blue Prince emerged on top on that occasion, and has done more good work since, it was Sommelier who arguably shaped the better and he is of interest again and likely capable of further progress after just four starts. 

Topping the list, however, is Fire Demon. He has had something of a stop-start career so far, fluffing his lines at odds-on on his final juvenile start having previously finished second to the now 110-rated Dancing Gemini, but he has made amends this year, winning two of his three starts. 

It is probably no coincidence both of those wins have come at Kempton, as he found the emphasis too much on speed at Lingfield when beaten in between. He evidently has the pace for six furlongs but is likely to be as good over seven in time, suggesting this scenario ought to suit ideally.
Analysis by Matt Gardner

What they say

Alastair Donald, racing manager for King Power, owners of Sommelier
We're excited about him. He ran very well last time, when he probably hit the front a little bit too early in a slowly run race and was carrying quite a lot of weight. He's in good shape and more favourably treated this time. He looks on a big upward curve.

Andrew Slattery, trainer of Tarsus
His winter campaign has been good. He's surprised us by how much he's come forward in recent months. He seems to be one of those horses who doesn’t overdo it at home and saves his best for the track. Declan McDonogh rode him the last day and said he'd stay seven furlongs, so the stiff six shouldn't be a problem.

David Evans, trainer of Blue Prince
I thought he was a bit unlucky in the trial at Lingfield. He's come out of it in good order and has a nice chance.

Mick Appleby, trainer of G'Day Mate and Daring Legend
I don’t think there will be much between them. G’Day Mate has more speed, so it will be a question of whether he gets home over the trip, while it was a bit of a rush to get Daring Legend qualified. I think they both have chances.

Barry Mahon, European racing manager for Juddmonte, owners of Fire Demon
He's in great form. I saw him at Andrew's [Balding] yard on Monday morning and we're very happy with him. Oisin [Murphy] takes the ride too, which is good. He bounced back with victory last time after disappointing at Lingfield, when the track didn't suit. He's a solid horse.

Karl Burke, trainer of Media Shooter and Bazball
Media Shooter is in good form, he should be suited by the track and I hope he could be in the money. Bazball loves the track; we have to take her fitness as a given but she seems in good form.

John Ryan, trainer of Roman Emperor
He hasn't run at Newcastle before but he's in good form. Kempton wasn't ideal for him last time, where they got stacked and he found himself further back than ideal. He made up lots of ground that day turning in and this straight track should suit him better.
Reporting by Matt Rennie

Read our Friday previews:

1.53 Newcastle: Spartan Army 'very much on the up' for Alan King in ultra-competitive marathon final 

3.00 Newcastle: 'The one most of us are worried about is Nine Tenths' - can William Haggas's topweight demonstrate her class? 

3.35 Newcastle: Can Albasheer or Cover Up pick up valuable Sprint glory - or is it the 'perfect storm' for Batal Dubai? 

4.10 Newcastle: Antoine Griezmann's Hooking is intriguing  - but plenty of unexposed contenders ready to pounce in Easter Classic 

4.40 Newcastle: Jockey merry-go-round makes it tricky but Oisin Murphy could hold the key on Fantastic Fox

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