'He's one of our big hopes for the whole week' - quotes and analysis for ultra-competitive sprint handicap

Royal Ascot is the punter's cheat sheet for the rest of the Flat season. There is strong form everywhere you look, so much so that a system of blind-backing runners from the meeting on future appearances can be profitable for several weeks.

The Wokingham is different. It is the final major race of the meeting, and also arguably the toughest of all the sprint handicaps to solve. You get more of a toehold in the Stewards' Cup or Ayr Gold Cup. The Wokingham is harder to know, and the fact they have been racing on the track for five days gives far fewer clues than you would think.

The draw situation is typical of the meeting. It simply cannot be predicted before at least the end of racing on Friday. If you are choosing blind, then it is about 4-6 that higher-numbered stalls will be favoured.

Pace analysis is preferable to pure guesswork. The projection from a look at this field is clear. There is very little pace among the low-numbered stalls, a fair amount in the middle part of the draw, and plenty high. Assuming jockeys ride to their draw, itself far from a given, you would expect one or two large groups down the middle to stands' side with a small breakaway on the far side.

That suggests Fresh (stall four) could be undone by the draw for the second Wokingham in a row. Spirit Of Light would top that. He was in 30 when low-numbered stalls dominated Thursday's Buckingham Palace. Now he is in stall one.

My personal shortlist starts from the horse in stall nine, Dream Composer. He keeps shaping like a horse who will thrive in big-field handicaps. The pace starts from the horse drawn immediately on his left, Lethal Levi.

There is pace consistently through the middle stalls, which could help fancied runners like Apollo One (15) and Probe (17). Whether those mid-drawn prominent racers tack to one side or the other could prove decisive. Punters at large will presumably be hoping they turn left, towards the stands. 

From prices taken on Friday, the lowest third of the draw holds 30 per cent of the market. The middle portion holds 32 per cent, while the highest third contains 38 per cent. The last group contains market leader Orazio, plus joint-second favourite Khanjar.

There is one more plus point for those drawn high. Right on the stands' rail in stall 31 is Princess Shabnam. This filly made all for her two wins last year and ran by far her best race of 2023 from the front. Even if Lethal Levis and Mr Wagyus do not tack across, high-drawn runners ought to have a back-up in Princess Shabnam.

But then all of this is theory. A bit of weighing room chatter will be more important to the shape of the Wokingham than even the deepest pace analysis. All punters can do is make a sound form choice, apply the usual rules of big-field Ascot handicaps and hope for the best as they take on Royal Ascot's toughest betting challenge.
Race analysis by Keith Melrose

What they say 

Hugo Palmer, trainer of Flaming Rib
He’ll find this easier than running in a Group 1 in Hong Kong last time and he has top weight as he’s the best horse in the race. He enjoys fast ground and the trip is right for him, so there is plenty to like.

Harry Davies, rider of King’s Lynn
I’m very much looking forward to the ride as he’s dropped down the handicap to what could be a dangerous mark. He’s been going well at home and never runs a bad race at Ascot so I expect him to be thereabouts even though he’s a six-year-old now. It’s not long since he won a Group 2 and he’s still a classy type.

Roger Teal, trainer of Chipstead
We had to withdraw him from the King’s Stand on Tuesday as he’d hit his head on the horsebox coming in and we couldn’t take any chances. He’s fine now and should run a good race provided we have some speed horses around us.

Jessica Harrington, trainer of Hurricane Ivor
He ran an absolute cracker at the Curragh in a premier handicap on Guineas weekend. He's a really solid performer who never lets us down and this has been the plan for him for a while.

Bruce Raymond, racing manager to Hamad Rashed Bin Ghedayar, owner of Summerghand
He’s nine now but you can never leave him out of calculations in this and I’m sure he’ll run his usual race. He’s well drawn and likes the ground.

Charlie Hills, trainer of Orazio
He’s one of our big hopes of the whole week. He’s been in fine form this season, winning both starts.We were very patient with him last year, so we think he’s still not quite as exposed as some of the others in the race. Any rain that falls would be a bonus but he ran a good race as a two-year-old on fast ground.

Joe Foley, racing manager to Clipper Logistics, owners of Fresh
He’s reportedly in good form at home and we're looking forward to his annual crack at the race.

Oisin Murphy, rider of Bielsa
He moved really well at York and he's already won an Ayr Gold Cup. It's great to be getting on him for Kevin Ryan, who is in super form, and I'd love to ride another Royal Ascot winner for King Power Racing.

Richard Hannon: represented by Mums Tipple in the Wokingham StakesCredit: Edward Whitaker

Richard Hannon, trainer of Mums Tipple
He ran well back on turf at Haydock last time and should be effective back at six furlongs. We’ve got Frankie on board and we’re looking forward to it.

James Ferguson, trainer of First Folio
He'll love the ground and has run well at the track. I’ve put Taylor Fisher on to claim a few pounds. It’s a very competitive race and it will be a huge achievement if he can finish in the first five or six.

Richard Hills, assistant racing manager to Shadwell Estates, owners of Khanjar
He ran a solid race at Hamilton last time and has the cheekpieces on to sharpen him up. William Haggas has had this race in mind for him all year and he looks to have a nice draw. We're positive about his chances although it’s a tough race.

Alan O’Keeffe, assistant to Jennie Candlish, trainer of Probe
He’s had a great season winning at Newmarket but probably didn’t handle Epsom as well as we’d thought last time. We’re delighted to have Ryan Moore riding for us and it’s great to have a fancied runner in such a high-profile race from a small yard such as us. He’s well drawn as he can go either way from there, although a drop of rain would not have gone amiss.

John Quinn, trainer of Mr Wagyu
He's come out of Haydock well. We were thrilled with his Epsom run but, although he wasn't drawn the right side at Haydock, for some reason he didn't spark on the day. He's very consistent but every year there's an odd run that's a bit of a puzzler. He seems in very good form and ran a very good race last year. He certainly has a squeak.

Sean Woods, trainer of Princess Shabnam
She’s drawn 31 so any higher and she would have been on the road. We’ll have to see how that pans out but she's wearing a hood for the first time that she worked very well in the other day.
Reporting by David Milnes

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