'He's in the form of his life' - analysis and quotes for the Commonwealth Cup

Friday: 3.05 Royal Ascot
Commonwealth Cup (Group 1) | 6f | 3yo | ITV/Sky

The Commonwealth Cup has moved on from being racing's new big thing. It is legitimately running with the Classics now as a vital Group 1 for three-year-olds.

It has reached the point where it is necessary to write down the stats just to keep up, as in the attached graphic. The seven runnings of the race have already produced 24 wins and 14 individual winners of open-age Group or Grade 1s. That is significantly more than the St Leger over the same period, and the Leger arguably flows into a softer pool of open-age races.

While the Commonwealth Cup acts like a Classic, it does not get treated like one. Aidan O'Brien and Charlie Appleby tend to run at least one each year, but they do not send out huge squads that take up half the market. The big breeding operations do not dominate the stock in sprints like they do over the traditional Classic trips. In fact, this field of 20 has more runners from the North than from Newmarket and Lambourn.

Class act Perfect Power and winning machine El Caballo top the betting for Yorkshire trainers Richard Fahey and Karl Burke. Both know their way around this race. Burke won it with Quiet Reflection in 2016, Fahey was second with Sands Of Mali in 2018.

Fahey and Burke, as well as Kevin Ryan (third with Hello Youmzain in 2019) and Clive Cox (won with Golden Horde two years ago) are the tier of trainers who have generally been locked out of Classics by the major operations but who have had more joy in this race. Ryan has three runners: Boonie, Gis A Sub and Hala Hala Athmani. Cox has been represented in this race more than just about anyone else, but he opts for a single arrow this year.

Wings Of War won the Group 2 Mill Reef last year, which ticks off a Commonwealth Cup trend as all but one winner had won at Pattern level as a juvenile. He has the build of a better three-year-old and his two runs so far in a couple of major trials have strongly hinted he is building up to this race.

In particular, when third behind El Caballo and Flaming Rib in the Sandy Lane Stakes last time, Wings Of War raced freely off the pace and made ground late. Those tactics are so-so at Haydock, but they are perfect for Ascot. He has been laser-targeted at this and commands respect at double-figure odds.

The unknown is the pace. Wings Of War is in five, Perfect Power right on the wing in one. The pace is largely concentrated in the centre, with the likes of Flotus (nine), Twilight Jet (11) and Flaming Rib (12).

Indications from the first days of the meeting would suggest those blasting up the middle may get most of the field following them.

That is not the best news for Perfect Power in one, or El Caballo in 20 of 20. Unless some pace materialises from the flanks (Go Bears Go is in four, El Caballo himself may be likeliest of those drawn high) this year's Commonwealth Cup could set up for a minor shock.
Race analysis by Keith Melrose

Perfect Power bids for royal double

Perfect Power will drop back to his "best distance" when he bids to follow up his narrow success in last year's Norfolk Stakes.

The three-year-old denied Go Bears Go by a head at last season's royal meeting and has won three times since, including in the 7f Greenham Stakes on his penultimate start for Richard Fahey.

Perfect Power then finished seventh when stepped up to a mile for the first time in the 2,000 Guineas, six and a quarter lengths behind the winner Coroebus, but is dropping back to six furlongs at Ascot.

Perfect Power: alongside trainer Richard FaheyCredit: Edward Whitaker

"He's got a good chance," said Bruce Raymond, racing manager to owner Sheikh Rashid Dalmook Al Maktoum. "We'd have preferred easier ground and a better draw but his preparations have gone well.

"He ran in the Guineas and we were a bit sceptical about if he'd get the trip, so he's coming back to what we feel is his best distance."

'He'll step up from his Sandy Lane run'

El Caballo has hardly put a foot wrong for trainer Karl Burke and will attempt to extend his winning sequence to seven under Clifford Lee.

He has rapidly risen through the ranks, winning four times on the all-weather after getting off the mark in May 2021 before claiming the Group 2 Sandy Lane Stakes after a thrilling finish with Flaming Rib.

El Caballo: won the Sandy Lane Stakes under Clifford LeeCredit: John Grossick (racingpost.com/photos)

El Caballo narrowly beat another of his Commonwealth Cup rivals, Tiber Flow, on his penultimate start on the all-weather at Newcastle.

"He's in great form," said Burke. "I'm very happy with him. I hope they keep putting plenty of water on as I wouldn't want the ground too quick for him. I think he can step up from his Sandy Lane run."

What they say

Richard Hannon, trainer of Ehraz
Ehraz still hasn't come in his coat, which is the weirdest thing, but he's looked like that all year. He's an extremely good horse who travels very well, and I was very pleased with his second to Tiber Flow at Newbury, where he finished well.

Hugo Palmer, trainer of Flaming Rib and Hierarchy
Hierarchy will outrun his odds. He'll be ridden with more restraint than at Newbury, where he went too fast in front. He's better judged on the form of his second in the Pavilion Stakes than on his last run. Flaming Rib has form on all types of ground and I don't have any reason to think it will be too quick for him. His last piece of work was excellent.

David Loughnane, trainer of Go Bears Go
I couldn't be happier with him. He's in a great place physically and mentally and he's back to his favourite racecourse. He won't mind fast ground and I'm very hopeful we can have some redemption for last year.

Roger Varian, trainer of Rizg
He's got to step up on everything he's done before to feature but we've always rated him highly and he's run two fine races this season. We pop blinkers on to try to get him to focus, he's been a bit babyish, and if that brings about a length or two of improvement he could well run in the mix. The track and the style of the race should really suit him and I'm sure he'll outrun his odds.

William Haggas, trainer of Tiber Flow
Tiber Flow is a nice horse and earned his place here when he won at Newbury. We are putting cheekpieces on as we thought he dossed a bit there.

Michael O'Callaghan, trainer of Twilight Jet
He's in the form of his life. He's come out of the race at Naas well. He's travelled over well. He's improved a bit from Naas and if he can put up a similar performance I think whatever beats him will win. I think he'll run a huge race. He's the highest rated three-year-old sprinter in Ireland. We just need a bit of luck and fingers crossed.

Clive Cox, trainer of Wings Of War
I was pleased with his run in the Sandy Lane Stakes. He took a big step forward and he seems to be coming to the boil at the right time.

Ed Crisford, joint-trainer of Flotus
She bounced back to form when running a good second in a Listed contest at Haydock. It's a very competitive field and she's up against the colts for the first time but she's been training really well and at her best she can be in the mix.

Colin Keane, rider of Sacred Bridge
She was a very smart two-year-old and we probably didn't see the best of her at the end of last season in the Cheveley Park. We thought she might have been a contender for a Guineas. She didn't get home over 7f but still ran a cracker behind Homeless Songs. She bounced back well at Cork. It's another step up in grade but if she ran into the first three we'd be delighted.
Reporting by Jonathan Harding

Friday at Royal Ascot:

2.30 Ascot: 'She's working really well and she's probably overpriced' - key Albany quotes

3.40 Ascot: Why it could pay to look past two market leaders in the Duke of Edinburgh

4.20 Ascot: Thady Gosden: Inspiral is ready for a race but she will improve from it

5.00 Ascot: 'She's been laid out for this' - the Queen's runner primed for Sandringham

5.35 Ascot: Can punters trust the quick Derby turnaround time in the King Edward VII?

6.10 Ascot: Wesley Ward: We've just been messing but now we're planning to get serious

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