'He’s always looked phenomenal' - quotes and analysis on a fascinating Kauto Star Novices' Chase

Unknowns tend to be priced up defensively, from handicap debutants to one-from-one maiden winners in Classics. Kauto Star favourite Il Est Francais is a rare example of the phenomenon, but follows the pattern to a tee.

While he is trained in France, the difficulty in pinning down Il Est Francais' worth has roots that British and Irish fans will know only too well. Over fences, he has beaten very little with extreme ease. As he was a Grade 1-winning hurdler too, in his two chase runs he has encountered something Constitution Hill will recognise. Nothing wants to race near him, for fear of being either marked by the battle or overrated by the comparison. As a result, assessments based on collateral form and race times are shaky.

But a string of 1s beside his name and some wide-margin wins have British bookmakers taking evasive action. Those who have watched Il Est Francais, and who are not invested in the validation that would come from a French-trained winner in a British Grade 1 chase, see room to take him on. His is a price based on exaggerated visual impressions and potential.

The opposition here is much stronger than anything Il Est Francais has faced. Hermes Allen also won a Grade 1 over hurdles and immediately improved for fences when winning a Grade 2 at Newbury. Giovinco travels like thunder and left the impression he might have beaten Stay Away Fay last time had they met under these conditions rather than in deep ground at Sandown. Even the rank outsiders in this field would provide more opposition than Il Est Francais has faced at home.

It is heartening to see a more international Grade 1 outside of the usual arenas of Cheltenham in March and Auteuil in summer. It is hoped we will see more, so that the next Il Est Francais who turns up in a race like this will be a lot easier to weigh up.
Race analysis by Keith Melrose

'People say he's the best they've seen'

James Reveley gave up his intended rides at Pau on Christmas Day in order to be fresh to continue his association with Il Est Francais in a fascinating Kauto Star.

The Grade 1-winning hurdler has made an impressive start to his chasing career in two runs at Auteuil and adds an interesting French dimension to the race.

The five-year-old tackles three miles for the first time after his 11-length triumph in a Listed chase over two furlongs shorter last month.

Noel George, who trains Il Est Francais in partnership with Amanda Zetterholm near Chantilly, said: “He has a lot of potential and he's always looked phenomenal. This has been our target and I always said to [co-owner and breeder] Nicolas de Lageneste that we would go to the Prix Fondeur and then aim him at Kempton to try for his Grade 1.

"I think it's good for him to discover the English fences early in his chasing career, so he doesn't get too used to the French style of jumping, and then we've got the option hopefully to go back in the future. I'm really looking forward to it.”

As regards likely tactics, he said: “I'm open-minded; if nobody wants to go on, we can make it. If someone wants to go on, we can sit in behind. He's very adaptable and that's not really an issue.”

Sounding increasingly bullish, George added: “He always catches the eye and I don't think it would just be me saying this; I think for a lot of people he would be the best they've seen.”

What they say

Lucinda Russell, trainer of Giovinco
It’s as tough a race as you might find in the spring, but he deserves a crack at it. He’s come out of his race at Sandown last time in great shape and although he was hampered by a loose horse that day, so was the winner and there are no hard-luck stories. This sharper track should play to his strengths.

Paul Nicholls, trainer of Hermes Allen
He was good at Newbury and has come on for that run. Good ground suits him nicely. The French horse has a few questions to answer going right-handed on good ground and over different jumps; he’s got it all to prove. His reputation is high and they obviously fancy him quite a lot, so it’s an interesting race.

Graeme McPherson, joint-trainer of Marble Sands
We hope the ground continues to dry out as he's a different horse on good ground and the slow ground at Newbury was not to his liking. He was only 11 lengths behind Hermes Allen that day and we think he is ridiculously overpriced at 50-1.

Tom Bellamy, rider of Tightenourbelts
He’s taking a big step up in class to a proper Grade 1 contest, but he deserves to take his chance and hopefully we can nick a place. Anything above that will be a Christmas bonus.

Anthony Honeyball, trainer of Kilbeg King
We might as well have supplemented him for the King George, it can't be any harder than this! He hasn't quite done it this season over fences, but he won at Punchestown and we've always liked him. This was always the plan and we've decided to hold our nerve, though I did think we'd be coming here off a win. Maybe he's just been running himself fit, he's a burly horse, and we've always thought three miles, right-handed at Kempton would suit him so we'll let him take his chance.
Reporting by David Milnes

Read our Boxing Day previews:

12.45 Kempton: 'You wouldn't see a novice jump better' - who expects a big effort from his runner in this competitive handicap chase?

1.05 Aintree: 'We've had our eye on this since the Royal Bond' - Gordon Elliott takes aim at the British novices with Grade 1 star Farren Glory

1.10 Leopardstown: 'You'd have to love the way he hit the line ' - Mighty Bandit steps up to Graded company after impressive Punchestown debut

1.33 Limerick: Loughglynn bids to emulate the likes of Faugheen and Penhill by landing Grade 2 honours

1.35 Wetherby: 'He stays and has a nice weight - he must have a great chance' - who expects to dominate a tricky Rowland Meyrick chase?

1.55 Kempton: Unbeaten superstar Constitution Hill attempts to serve up another Boxing Day treat for racing fans in the Christmas Hurdle

2.20 Leopardstown: Arkle favourite fancied to make it a perfect ten for Willie Mullins in final ever Racing Post Novice Chase

2.30 Kempton: 'He's as good a chance I'll get of winning a King George' - key quotes for Kempton's Boxing Day feature