'He's always a horse we've thought a little bit of' - who fancies their chances in a competitive event at Newcastle?

There is a perception that a low draw is a negative on the straight track at Newcastle, but the reality is there isn’t much in it. Over seven furlongs since 2016, stalls one to four strike at around ten per cent, compared with an average of 11 per cent for those drawn from five to ten.

Horses in stall one are 62-662 (9.4 per cent), stall two 63-659 (9.6 per cent), with the best strike-rates coming from those drawn in five (75-647; 11.6 per cent), six (73-620; 11.8 per cent) and ten (48-412; 11.7 per cent). Even then, there is only two per cent top-to-bottom.

That will be music to the ears of those who like United Approach as the James Tate-trained four-year-old has been drawn in stall two in his bid to build on a promising recent return at Newbury.

United Approach was bidding for a hat-trick spanning three seasons that day and making his handicap debut on only his fourth start at the age of four, so can’t have been easy to keep right. However, he caught the eye with a strong finish to take fourth in that six-furlong event.

James Tate: saddles United Approach in a meaty handicap at NewcastleCredit: Edward Whitaker (racingpost.com/photos)

An extra furlong looks certain to suit as two of his half-siblings stayed at least a mile and they also showed their best form on the all-weather, so the switch to sand should also suit him.

If the low draw does put you off, then Local Hero will probably be next on your list. He comes from stall ten and we know he handles the all-weather as his best form is on sand.

Both wins have come around Kempton’s tight, right-handed bend and his one try on a straight track resulted in a disappointing last of nine at Doncaster last year. However, that was in Listed company and Local Hero has a big chance if he can reproduce his best at this course.
Race analysis by Graeme Rodway

What they say

Richard Brown, racing adviser for Wathnan Racing, owners of Make Me King
He ran very well in the Buckingham Palace. He's obviously back out quite quickly but they say he's bounced out of the race at home, so we're keen to let him take his chance. He travelled strongly in cheekpieces at Ascot and they probably just helped him focus a bit, so they stay on.

George Boughey, trainer of Raadobarg and Baradar
Baradar ran with credit on the wrong side in the Buckingham Palace at Royal Ascot and the ground was a bit lively for him that day. I couldn't be happier with how he's come out of the race and he makes his all-weather debut. He goes there with an each-way chance. The ground was also a bit lively for Raadobarg at Royal Ascot and he makes his Tapeta debut as well. It will be interesting to see how the two of them go. They're more than capable of winning at this grade, but they just need everything to fall their way now they're getting a bit longer in the tooth.

Karl Burke, trainer of Liamarty Dreams
He won his maiden at Newcastle and handles that surface. He's had a little break and a freshen up, and he's working well.

Roger Fell, trainer of Eldrickjones
He likes it there. He's a tricky horse. If there's plenty of pace on and he sits back a bit he'll have a really good chance. He broke too well in the Royal Hunt Cup at Ascot and he needs a bit of cover.

James Tate, trainer of United Approach
He's a nice horse and I was very happy with his comeback run at Newbury after a long layoff. It's just a question of whether he's effective over seven furlongs on the all-weather. He's done plenty of work on the surface at home and he looked like he was crying out for this trip last time. He's always a horse we've thought a little bit of and he's quite lightly raced, so we're very optimistic.

Richard Spencer, trainer of Giant
He seems to like the all-weather surface and gelding him has definitely helped. He's never run at Newcastle before but hopefully he can transfer his Kempton form. Hopefully, he can continue to progress and he'll need to because this is a competitive race.
Reporting by Maddy Playle

Read our Saturday previews:

2.04 Newcastle: Can Kinross be trusted to be at his Group 1 best on his return in the Chipchase Stakes?  

2.20 Curragh: Can impressive Listowel winner American Bar fend off Ballydoyle runners in Group 2 Airlie Stud Stakes?  

2.55 Curragh: 'If he runs up to his Epsom level he'll run very well' - analysis and quotes for the International Stakes  

3.10 Newcastle: 'I'm really hopeful the plan can pay off' - trainers on their Northumberland Plate chances  

3.25 Newmarket: 'He should have a live chance at this level' - can Noble Dynasty back up career-best run in Group 3 Criterion Stakes?  

3.30 Curragh: Bluestocking faces thrilling clash with Emily Upjohn as she bids for Group 1 breakthrough in British-dominated Pretty Polly  

Sign up to receive On The Nose, our essential daily newsletter, from the Racing Post. Your unmissable morning feed, direct to your email inbox every morning.