Who will win the 2023 Betfred Derby at Epsom on Saturday based on previous trends?

The fourth British Classic and one of the world's most famous races, the Betfred Derby (1.30), takes place on Saturday at Epsom. We've taken a look at previous trends to help you try to find the winner...

Trials

The recognised Derby trials – the Ballysax Stakes, Newmarket Stakes, Chester Vase, Dee Stakes, Lingfield Derby Trial, Leopardstown Derby Trial and Dante Stakes – have varying degrees of success of producing the Derby winner.

With its similarity to the Epsom test, the Lingfield Derby Trial has had a resurgence in recent years, with 2019 winner Anthony Van Dyck and 2021 runner-up Adayar taking in the race before going on to Classic glory.

That looks a positive for leading fancy Military Order, who beat Waipiro by a length and a quarter in that trial this year, although it is worth noting that the race was run on the all-weather due to a waterlogged turf track.

The Chester Vase has produced two Derby winners in the past decade – Ruler Of The World (2013) did the double and Wings Of Eagles (2017) stepped up from second on the Roodee. That may be a good sign for this year's winner Arrest, who bids to give Frankie Dettori a third Derby triumph in what is likely to be his final attempt before retirement.

Since 2000, five winners of the Dante Stakes have gone on to Derby glory, most recently Desert Crown last year. The Andrew Balding-trained The Foxes bids to follow the same path, while runner-up White Birch tries to emulate Workforce (2010) in stepping up for Derby glory. Unlucky Dante third Passenger, who has been supplemented for £85,000, will also attempt to reverse the York form.

The last Leopardstown Derby Trial winner to go on to Epsom glory was High Chaparral (2002), which goes significantly against Sprewell.

Ratings

Anthony Van Dyck (2019) is the only one of the last ten winners who failed to run to a Racing Post Rating in the 120s at Epsom.

It pays to keep track of the improvers coming into the contest, given that seven of the last ten winners had achieved a career-best RPR on their previous start. That is a positive for several leading fancies but not for ante-post favourite Auguste Rodin, who flopped in the 2,000 Guineas last time out.

However, Auguste Rodin comes into the race as the RPR top-rated on 118.

Auguste Rodin has to bounce back from Guineas disappointmentCredit: Edward Whitaker (racingpost.com/photos)

Distance

The ability to stay the mile and a half is often an unknown with Derby runners, but one clue is that six of the last ten winners had won over a mile or further in their juvenile season.

That trend is a plus for several leading contenders, notably Military Order, Auguste Rodin and Arrest. Passenger, unraced at two, and Sprewell do not qualify.

The exceptions to the trend in the past decade were Masar (2018), who won a Group 3 over 7f as a two-year-old, while Ruler Of The World, Harzand (2016) and Serpentine (2020) did not score until their three-year-old campaign.

Experience

The Derby tends to go to a colt who still has the scope for significant improvement and seven of the last ten winners had between two and four starts before their big day at Epsom, which is a plus for Military Order, Passenger, Sprewell, White Birch and Waipiro.

Masar and Anthony Van Dyck both ran eight times before winning at Epsom, although none of this year's entries has had more than seven career starts.

Workforce and Desert Crown, the most recent of Sir Michael Stoute's six Derby winners, both had just two starts before Epsom, including in the Dante last time. Passenger bids to follow the same path for the Newmarket trainer.

Passenger, supplemented for £85,000, will bid to give trainer Sir Michael Stoute a seventh DerbyCredit: Edward Whitaker (racingpost.com/photos)

Price

Desert Crown justified 5-2 favouritism last year, although there have been a number of upsets recently and he is one of only three successful favourites in the last ten runnings.

Four of the last six winners have struck at double-figure prices, including Wings Of Eagles at 40-1 and Serpentine at 25-1, and last year's runner-up Hoo Ya Mal was 150-1, so it could pay to look for a lively outsider.

Verdict

Waipiro is the selection. It's a wide-open Derby and the Ed Walker-trained son of Australia makes the most appeal on the trends and prices.

Adayar finished second in the Lingfield Derby Trial in 2021 before winning this race and Waipiro can follow in his footsteps. He remains unexposed with just three starts to his name and he continues to improve, achieving his best Racing Post Rating last time out with 109.

He has to reverse form with Military Order, but that's factored into the price and he was still learning at Lingfield.

Waipiro13:30 Epsom

View Racecard

Jky: Tom Marquand Tnr: Ed Walker

Betfred Derby (1.30 Epsom, Saturday)

bet365: 3 Auguste Rodin, 7-2 Military Order, 5 Passenger, 6 Arrest, 10 The Foxes, 11 Sprewell, 14 Dubai Mile, White Birch, 16 Waipiro, 33 bar

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