The roar is coming! Weighing up the key contenders for the 2023 Supreme Novices' Hurdle

We are just three weeks away from the 2023 Cheltenham Festival and that famous roar as the runners are sent away for the Sky Bet Supreme Novices' Hurdle. Recent winners of the race include Vautour, Douvan, Shishkin and Constitution Hill, which shows you the class required to win the festival opener. This year's running looks particularly wide open, with plenty of leading contenders, and we should be treated to quite a spectacle. Here, we look at the leading contenders for this year's Supreme . . .

Facile Vega

Form: 1-1115

Strengths: Winner of last season's Champion Bumper, Facile Vega has looked a star from the moment he hit the racecourse. He produced an awe-inspiring turn of foot in his four bumper victories, including two Grade 1s, and was faultless when making a winning hurdling debut at Fairyhouse in December. He then won a Grade 1 at Leopardstown over Christmas in workmanlike fashion, cementing him as Ireland's leading two-mile novice hurdler.

Weaknesses: Leopardstown runner-up Il Etait Temps reversed that form emphatically at the Dublin Racing Festival. We did not see the real Facile Vega that day, but the way he weakened was bitterly disappointing and he has to leave a question mark next to his name.

Odds: 3-1

What they say

Willie Mullins, trainer: "He's good. He had a few easy days after Leopardstown. He'll be back out later this week. I'm happy with him. I was disappointed with Leopardstown, but I'm happy with how he came out of the race."

Facile Vega16:42 Cheltenham

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Jky: Tnr:

Marine Nationale

Form: 1111

Strengths: Trained by Barry Connell, Marine Nationale will be defending a four-race unbeaten record in the opener. Winning bumpers at Punchestown and Killarney last year, he caught the eye with his slick jumping on his hurdling debut at Punchestown in October. He moved towards the top of the market with an unlikely Grade 1 victory at Fairyhouse in December, running on well late on to score by a head. He shapes like he will relish the stiff 2m½f at Cheltenham, and he is ground versatile too.

Weaknesses: He lacks the experience of some of his rivals after just two starts over hurdles and will arrive off the back of a 100-day layoff.

Odds: 7-2

What they say

Barry Connell, trainer [after his Fairyhouse win]: "He travelled and jumped well. He was awkward at the last, and that was the first time he has ever been off the bridle. I didn't know what he'd do off the bridle, but he showed he's tough. He'll improve again."

Marine Nationale16:42 Cheltenham

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Jky: Tnr:

Il Etait Temps

Form: 5-4121

Strengths: After running respectably without winning in three starts behind Vauban last season, Il Etait Temps has flourished in 2022-23. He landed odds of 1-7 when returning at Thurles in November, but was unable to pass Facile Vega at Leopardstown over Christmas. However, he reversed the form comprehensively in a Grade 1 at the Dublin Racing Festival. He clearly relished a searching gallop that day and he should get a similar tempo at Cheltenham, with Supreme winners always needing a touch of stamina.

Weaknesses: Although he is improving at a rapid rate you could argue he was fortunate to beat Facile Vega at the Dublin Racing Festival, as that rival was hamstrung by chasing a cut-throat early pace set by High Definition. Facile Vega is likely to be ridden with more restraint in the Supreme, as connections suggested after that defeat, and with similar trips it is hard to suggest Facile Vega would find him too strong.

Odds: 5-1

What they say

Willie Mullins, trainer: "If you go back to his first run last year, it was very, very good. His jumping just let him down afterwards. His jumping has let him down this season too, but we've always thought he was a Grade 1 performer. He got his jumping together at Leopardstown last time when Danny [Mullins] got him out and got him on an even keel. He's a live one in the Supreme."

Il Etait Temps16:42 Cheltenham

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Jky: Tnr:

Impaire Et Passe

Form: 1-11

Strengths: Bought for €330,000 after winning a bumper at Nancy for trainer Yannick Fouin, Impaire Et Passe created a deep impression when motoring clear of his rivals on his hurdling debut at Naas in December over 2m3f. He showed he was not devoid of speed when dropped to 2m for a Grade 2 at Punchestown last time, jumping slickly on just his second hurdling start.

Weaknesses: There is still a big element of doubt in terms of Impaire Et Passe's final target. As it stands, the Ballymore looks like his most probable destination, which would scupper plenty of ante-post bets. Much like Marine Nationale, he does lack experience on the track compared to his rivals and any 'good' in the going description would be a big negative, as his wins have come on soft and heavy ground.

Odds: 6-1

What they say

Willie Mullins, trainer: "He has the option of the Ballymore or the Supreme. He's shown us he has no problem staying and we might let Hunters Yarn go one way and Impaire Et Passe go another. He's looked a bit special."

Impaire Et Passe16:42 Cheltenham

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Jky: Tnr:

Gaelic Warrior

Form: 32-111

Strengths: Lost out by a short head on his British debut in last year's Fred Winter, but has looked the finished article this season. Winning at 1-12 and 1-14 on his opening two starts of the season, he defied a huge weight to win a competitive handicap at the Dublin Racing Festival earlier this month. That was despite racing keenly and hanging badly in the straight. An RPR of 155 makes him very dangerous to discount.

Weaknesses: Much like many of his Willie Mullins-trained stablemates, Gaelic Warrior has two entries and is a shorter price for the Ballymore Novices' Hurdle. It may have been an anomaly, but his tendency to jump right at Leopardstown last time is a small worry, especially as he hung as well.

Odds: 6-1

What they say

Willie Mullins, trainer: "He was very impressive at Leopardstown. I was delighted to see him win a handicap like that. It was a great trial for maybe going for the Ballymore. He could go for the Supreme, but if I had to make a decision now the Ballymore is where I’d be going, but we’ll see what happens in the meantime."

Gaelic Warrior16:42 Cheltenham

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Jky: Tnr:

Luccia

Form: 11-11

Strengths: An impressive winner of a Listed bumper at Sandown last season, Luccia has looked a potential star since going over hurdles, winning a pair of Listed races emphatically. She jumped and travelled supremely well at Exeter last time and looks to have all the qualities required for the Supreme. Should she head for the opener, she will receive the mares' allowance and that would make her particularly appealing for many punters. 

Weaknesses: Nicky Henderson has always been clear that the Ryanair Mares' Novices' Hurdle is her intended target. She is a general 7-4 favourite for that race and it would be a surprise should she take up this engagement, for all that she would have excellent claims if she did.

Odds: 6-1

What they say

Nicky Henderson, trainer:  "I would favour the mares' race as it looks as if she'd have an outstanding chance in that. She would have a chance in the Supreme and Nico de Boinville said to run her there, so he must have been impressed. She wouldn't be out of place in that, but we'll see."

Luccia16:42 Cheltenham

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Jky: Tnr:

Tahmuras

Form: 21-111

Strengths: Tahmuras has excelled since going jumping and will arrive at the Supreme start unbeaten in three starts over hurdles. The six-year-old has climbed his way up the ladder, winning a maiden hurdle at Chepstow in November before a comfortable Listed success at Haydock in November. Despite a pair of mistakes late on, he was well on top at the line in the Grade 1 Tolworth at Sandown and that form gives him a strong each-way chance.

Weaknesses: The form of the Tolworth looks fairly modest on paper, and a Racing Post Rating of 144 means he will need to improve again to be winning the Supreme. Paul Nicholls has had a lean time of things at the festival over the last couple of years, and his last Supreme winner was Al Ferof in 2011.

Odds: 10-1

What they say

Paul Nicholls, trainer [after his Tolworth win]:  "He just gets better with every run. He was the last off the bridle and is improving with every run. I think we have a fairly serious horse on our hands."

Tahmuras16:42 Cheltenham

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Jky: Tnr:

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The best of the rest

High Definition (12-1): Rated 119 at his peak on the Flat, he was an impressive winner on hurdling debut at Leopardstown over Christmas. Fell in the race won by Il Etait Temps which makes his chances hard to gauge and his jumping would have to be a concern in a race where mistakes are punished severely.

Diverge (14-1): Well beaten on hurdling debut behind High Definition on Boxing Day but left that form well behind with a 23-length win at Punchestown in January. The bare form does not look overly strong, but he won at a canter and a RPR of 140 suggests he can be involved in an open-looking Supreme.

Chasing Fire (12-1): Unbeaten in one bumper and three hurdling starts, latterly at Sandown where he defied a double penalty to score readily. An RPR of 135 suggests improvement is required but he is unexposed and there should be more under the hood.

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