Who will win the 2023 Betfred St Leger based on ten-year trends?

Eldar Eldarov (David Egan) wins the St LegerDoncaster 11.9.22 Pic: Edward Whitaker

Eldar Eldarov: won the St Leger last yearCredit: Edward Whitaker

The Betfred St Leger (3.35) is the final Classic in Britain this year and the standout race this weekend. We have looked back at a number of factors over the past ten years to see who may win Saturday’s Group 1 highlight . . .

Ratings

In the last ten years, only three winners had an official rating below 110, including last year’s scorer and the 109-rated Eldar Eldarov. Harbour Law was rated just 102 when he caused a shock in 2016, while a year earlier Simple Verse was rated 108 when she dramatically won the race following an appeal.

Three of the last five winners have been rated 115 or higher, including the 2021 scorer Hurricane Lane, who was rated 120. Of this year’s potential runners, Continuous (115) and Arrest (114) head the entries on ratings.

Distance

The last ten winners had finished first or second over at least 1m4f, while nine of the ten had a sire with a stamina index of at least 9.5f. Five of those Classic scorers had won over 1m6f or further before they faced the 1m6½f trip of the St Leger.

St Leger favourite Gregory and stablemate Middle Earth are the only entries to have won over 1m6f, while Arrest has scored over 1m5½f and Tower Of London has been successful over 1m5f.

Class

Half of the winners in the past decade were competing at the highest level for the first time in the St Leger.

Desert Hero (far): stepping up in distance and classCredit: Edward Whitaker

The potential runners to fit that criterion include Gregory, Desert Hero, Middle Earth and Chesspiece.

Route to Doncaster

Four of the past ten winners had run in the Derby (recording form figures of 2693), four had contested the Queen’s Vase (1211) and two in the Great Voltigeur (31).

The overall record of Great Voltigeur winners in the St Leger – a double that Continuous is trying to complete – is 4U513.

Six Leger winners since 2013 had been successful on their previous start.

Verdict

Gregory makes most appeal. Although he has a little to find on official ratings, he is one of two contenders to be proven over a similar trip and the Queen’s Vase has produced four St Leger winners in the past decade, including last year’s scorer Eldar Eldarov.