'I'm expecting a lot of improvement' - Tom Segal with two tips for Punchestown's Grand National Trial on Sunday

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Queen Jane
2.35 Punchestown
1pt win

We'llhavewan
2.35 Punchestown
1pt win

There is still time for horses to thrust themselves into the Cheltenham Festival reckoning and No Flies On Him will try to enhance his claims as a Supreme or Baring Bingham contender in the Listed novice hurdle (3.05) at Punchestown.

He looked supremely talented when an easy winner of a Leopardstown novice hurdle over Christmas and if he can beat the likes of Tullyhill and Jigoro with authority, he will shorten significantly in the betting for his Cheltenham entries.

That is by far the most interesting race of the day with regards to the future but the best betting race is the QuinnBet Grand National Trial (2.35) and it is interesting to see Paul Townend riding at a weight of 10st in order to partner We'llhavewan for Willie Mullins.

We'llhavewan runs off an 18lb lower chase mark than his hurdles rating, which was enhanced after a runaway Listed win at Navan when the cheekpieces were reapplied.

Therefore, it's not a question of whether he's handicapped to win this race, it will be more about whether Townend can get him into a jumping rhythm because his jumping wasn't all that slick in his three starts over fences in 2022. However, they all came over a much shorter trip on much quicker ground and it's pretty clear that the further he goes and the softer the ground, the better he is.

It's not often these Mullins projects fluff their lines and, granted a clear round, I think he'll win. Although he's a short enough price for a 3m3f handicap chase, I reckon it's at least worth saving on him.

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Gordon Elliott has won the race four times since 2018 and he saddles four, with Jack Kennedy opting for the unexposed Where It All Began. He is open to more improvement at this trip but he needs to find a lot of it and I think We'llhavewan's biggest dangers are the progressive Clonmeen, topweight Any Second Now and the Henry de Bromhead-trained Queen Jane.

Clonmeen looks a strong stayer and has won his last two races on testing ground. He's up 9lb for his last-gasp win at this track last time but he could find more for the extra three furlongs and is certainly not out of this.

Any Second Now was fourth behind Galopin Des Champs in the Irish Gold Cup just over a year ago and has been dropped 18lb by the handicapper since then. That is because his two runs this season have been really moderate but this is a much lesser race at a track he likes, so no-one should be surprised if he runs a much better race.

However, at a similarly big price, I reckon it could be worth chancing Queen Jane because her pedigree screams marathon chaser and, until her last run, she looked like a mare going places. She would have got past Brides Hill in another stride over 2m4f at Fairyhouse in December and the winner is prominent in the betting for the Mares' Chase at Cheltenham.

She never got in any sort of rhythm at Limerick next time after a mistake at the first but that race may have come too soon and I'm expecting a lot of improvement now she is upped in trip. Rachael Blackmore is back on board and, after only five chase starts, there should be a lot more to come.

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Published on 17 February 2024inExclusive tips

Last updated 18:41, 17 February 2024

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