Tour de France: Yellow jersey predictions

When Sir Bradley Wiggins rode down the Champs-Elysees adorned in yellow on a balmy July afternoon in 2012, few would have predicted the stranglehold Team Ineos would exact over the Tour de France.

When launching the team under their former Sky branding in 2010, team boss Sir Dave Brailsford announced an ambition to win the Tour with a British rider within five years.

By the time that target came around, Chris Froome was crossing the line in Paris as the winner but to claim his second and the team's third yellow jersey.

Froome retained the Maillot Jaune in 2016 and 2017, Geraint Thomas received his chance in 2018 and last year new kid on the block Egan Bernal announced his arrival on the biggest stage by becoming the youngest Tour victor in more than a century.

Since Wiggins' landmark victory in 2012, only Vincenzo Nibali in 2014 has managed to break the dominance of Ineos and that may have been different had Froome not crashed out on stage five.

After much conjecture, reigning champion Bernal has been given sole leadership of this year's Tour team, with Thomas set to target the Giro d'Italia and the departing Chris Froome set for his Ineos swansong at the Vuelta a Espana.

Bernal will be supported in his title defence by Ecuadorian Richard Carapaz, winner of last year's Giro and a wildcard option for an outfit who have never won over the cycling purists for whom style is much more attractive that wattage and marginal gains.

It is said that imitation is the greatest form of flattery, however, and for perhaps the first time in their period of dominance, Ineos have a rival team who are prepared to fight fire with fire.

Dutch outfit Jumbo-Visma have steadily built a squad in Ineos's image over the last few seasons, adding established Grand Tour riders to exceptional young talent and super domestiques capable of keeping intensity levels at their maximum in the mountains.

Last year's Vuelta victor Primoz Roglic and former Giro winner and time-trial world champion Tom Dumoulin are seen as the biggest threat to Bernal. They will have the engines of Sepp Kuss and rising star Wout van Aert to rely on.

On form Roglic looks the Dutch team's top option. The Slovenian, who was a ski jumper before switching to cycling, dominated the Tour de l'Ain, winning two of the three stages, and looked in supreme form when winning a key mountain stage at this month's Criterium du Dauphine.

However, he was forced to abandon that race after a heavy crash on stage four an his fitness and participation is not guaranteed.

Roglic certainly has the ability. But against a proven Tour winner such as Bernal who is still getting better, he will need to be at the peak of his powers to dethrone the Colombian.

Bernal also failed to finish the Dauphine although his withdrawal with back pain was more precautionary than of any real concern.

The 23-year-old has also resumed the disrupted season in sparkling form. He won the Tour d'Occitaine and was second to Roglic at the Tour de l'Ain - only a handful a seconds behind the Slovenian on the mountain tests.

The fact that there is only 36km of time-trialling to be tackled on stage 20 is also a bonus for Bernal in his battle against Roglic, who is exceptional against the clock. Indeed, it could be argued that the stage favours Bernal with the final 6km all uphill to the finish atop La Planche des Belles Filles.

While the time trial will help to determine the general classification, four consecutive high mountain stages - one in the Jura range and three in the Alps - will shape the race.

Compared to previous years, when the peloton were perhaps afforded the luxury of a relatively flat opening week, this year's route begins to climb almost from the outset - there are six summit finishes and eight stages classed as mountainous to tackle.

It's a route that others will find brutal but Bernal, who grew up and regularly trains at altitude, should relish it.

Given the truncated nature of the season it is difficult to look beyond the top two in the market.

Third-favourite Dumoulin finished some way off teammate Roglic and Bernal at the Tour de l'Ain and was seventh at the Dauphine. The lack of TT kilometres is also a negative.

There wouldn't be a more popular winner than Frenchman Thibaut Pinot and he will be eager to compete after injury robbed him of a potential victory last year when well placed.

Youngster Tadej Pogacar is highly promising but the podium may be his limit for now and 2019 Giro winner Carapaz is the ace up Ineos's sleeve should Bernal fail to live up to expectations.

Watch out for home climber Guillaume Martin of Cofidis. The 27-year-old has finished 23rd, 21st and 12th in three attempts at the Tour and is capable of getting himself inside the top ten this year. He was fourth at the Tour de l'Ain and third at the Dauphine.

But when it comes to winning the yellow jersey, no team knows how to do it better than Ineos, who look set to continue their Tour de Force with Bernal.

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