Tour de France 2019: Stage ten preview, betting, prediction & tip

Eurosport 1 & ITV 4, 11.25am Monday

Bastille Day turned out to be the calm after Saturday’s storming stage as a big break led to victory for South Africa’s Daryl Impey and a relatively stress-free day for the leading contenders.

A 15-rider escape built a lead of more than ten minutes before Impey (Mitchelton-Scott) got away late in the stage with Tiesj Benoot and easily won the two-up sprint.

The yellow jersey group of Julian Alaphilippe came in more than 16 minutes behind the winner with no damage done and Monday’s stage is likely to continue the temporary ceasefire in the GC battle on a flatter route from Saint-Flour to Albi.

There appear to be three scenarios, and any of them could unfold.

One is a straight bunch sprint, another is a successful breakaway – it is worth noting none of the 15 escapees on Sunday started the stage within 20 minutes of the overall lead – and the third is a sprint with some of the big-hitters taken out of the equation.

The third one is what happened the last time Albi hosted a stage finish six years ago when Peter Sagan beat Michael Matthews in the sprint, with speed men Mark Cavendish and Andre Greipel having been shelled out by deliberate tactics, and Sagan will be in the mix again in either of the sprint scenarios.

The route to Albi does not look so tough this time, however, and the big sprinters are aware this is one of their limited chances for a stage win this year. Dylan Groenewegen is the fastest in a straight fight but there are a lot of ifs and buts for a short-priced favourite, including the possibility of timing it wrong on the uphill finish.

That gives the wily and consistent Sagan, the stage-five winner, a decent shot of another Albi victory.

Recommendation
P Sagan
1pt 6-1 bet365, Betway

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