Steve Palmer's Masters predictions, golf betting tips & course guide

Golf tips, best bets and player analysis for The Masters at Augusta National, Georgia.

Where to watch

Live on Sky Sports Main Event and Golf from 12.30pm Thursday

Best bets

Rory McIlroy
4pts each-way 14-1 Hills
Justin Thomas
4pts each-way 12-1 Hills
Jason Kokrak
1pt each-way 80-1Betfred, Betway
Cameron Champ
1pt each-way 70-1 Ladbrokes

Bryson DeChambeau has got one arm already slipped through the Green Jacket according to many observers - the US Open champion ready to follow his runaway Winged Foot success by destroying Augusta National - but the hype machine appears to be out of control and the short-price favourite can be overlooked.

Yes, DeChambeau drives his ball further than anyone else on the circuit, but there are plenty of other big-hitters not far behind him. Yes, he won the US Open by six shots, taking advantage of his strength from the rough and getting his strategy spot-on, but roughless Augusta is a different animal. Accurate approach-shots to the right sections of devilish dancefloors have always been the key to Masters success and BDC is unimpressive in this department.

DeChambeau averaged 37 feet, two inches for proximity to the hole of his approaches last season - 157th on the PGA Tour rankings - and he finished 119th for strokes-gained-on-approach. His driving has been impressive and he has been putting solidly, but can he be trusted on approach to the tiny Augusta targets?

And maybe his putting will suffer this week with his trusty green-reading book taken from his grasp. Green-reading books are banned at Augusta, where BDC has putted terribly in his previous visits, and 'The Scientist' could be unsettled.

DeChambeau is the sixth-ranked player in the world. He missed the cut in the Memorial by two shots in July. He finished 30th of 78 in the St Jude Invitational at the start of August. He missed the cut by three shots in the Northern Trust at the end of August, then was 50th of 69 in the BMW Championship. Only four players scored worse than him in the Tour Championship in September. He tied eighth in the low-grade Shriners Open last time out. The notion that he is taking over the sport is fanciful.

Steve Palmer's top tip

Rory McIlroy 14-1

The DeChambeau circus of 400-yard drives, boastful Instagram posts and discussions over how he will turn Augusta into a pitch and putt, is all sweet mood music to four-times Major champion Rory McIlroy, who for the first time in several years has arrived at the Masters under the radar.

There is only one player in this field with immediate Grand Slam aspirations - McIlroy can join Gene Sarazen, Ben Hogan, Gary Player, Jack Nicklaus and Tiger Woods as members of the most elite club in golf - but DeChambeau, his muscles and his cavalier gameplan is the preferred storyline in the build-up for the golfing media. And that is just fine by McIlroy, who has expressed his affection for this most unusual of Masters - "less noise" as he put it last month.

McIlroy has not been able to crack the code of an April Masters, with form figures of 8-4-10-7-5-21 for the last six years, so a November gig is a welcome switch. The pressure typically becomes overwhelming for him, knowing that failure would mean a 12-month wait for another crack at the title he wants most, but this time it is only five months until another Masters. He will fancy his chances of taking one of these opportunities.

While Dustin Johnson and Brooks Koepka were at the Houston Open last week, trying to find some confidence on Masters-eve, McIlroy was resting in Florida having already got plenty of Augusta preparation under his belt. He left the Zozo Championship last time out content with the state of his game, having made 29 birdies in 72 holes at Sherwood Country Club, and the set-up at Augusta this week will delight him.

McIlroy carries his drives an enormous distance in the air and has always revelled on soft ground. Nobody is more adept than him at hitting a long, right-to-left tee-shot, the favourable shape for Augusta, and his eight-shot 2011 US Open victory at Congressional is perhaps the best example of his potency on wet turf. Mudlark McIlroy can make merry on the soaked Georgia fairways.

McIlroy's last victory came in November - the WGC-HSBC Champions - and he has been successful at this time of the year. He has won six times in autumn - three times in November, as opposed to never in April - and contentment in his personal life is another reason for optimism. This Masters will be his first as a father and his first as a 30-something. Daughter Poppy is attending her first golf tournament and she may see her dad fulfil his destiny.

Next best bet

Justin Thomas 12-1

Bookmakers are predicting a DeChambeau versus Johnson shootout, but the odds against McIlroy and Justin Thomas are more attractive. Thomas, with power on tap and one of the top five in the world on approach to greens, has progressive Masters form figures of 39-22-17-12. His Augusta greens-in-regulation statistics are magnificent and it has been disappointing putting which has cost him the chance of a serious crack at the Green Jacket.

Thomas will not want for knowledge about November conditions - Jeff Knox, father of his friend Lee, is the Augusta course-record holder off the members' tees (61). McIlroy and Thomas have both won the FedEx Cup in Georgia - and Thomas has often informed his Twitter followers that Augusta is his favourite Major venue.

Post-lockdown, Thomas has won the WGC in Memphis, finished second three times and looked threatening throughout. Four of his 13 PGA Tour victories have come in late October or early November. He is already a Major champion and is blessed with bundles of bottle.

Other selections

Jason Kokrak 80-1

Cameron Champ 70-1

Hearty investments on McIlroy and Thomas, backed up by smaller ones on two power-packed debutants is the staking plan. The switch to November could mean Augusta first-timers have more success than usual, particularly with rain set to make the layout more straightforward.

Cameron Champ, averaging only 0.1 yard less than DeChambeau off the tee last season, is the second-longest driver in the field and much better value than the favourite. Champ, who finished strongly for eighth place in the Zozo last time out, is a two-time PGA Tour victor at the age of 25 and bristling with potential. He finished tenth in the US PGA in August, playing alongside a triumphant Collin Morikawa in round four, and this time it may be Champ's turn for a Major breakthrough.

Jason Kokrak is putting better than ever and feeling more confident than ever, so his Augusta debut has come at a great time. An overdue PGA Tour breakthrough arrived in the CJ Cup last month, when he fended off Xander Schauffele, and this strong ball-striker is riding the crest of a wave.

Kokrak's caddie, David Robinson, is renowned as an ace green-reader, so he can help the newcomer adjust. Kokrak finished first for greens in regulation and first for putting when winning the CJ Cup.

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Augusta National course guide

Course Augusta National, Georgia
Prize money $11.5m ($2.07m to the winner)
Length 7,475 yards
Par 72
Field 92
Course records- 72 holes 270 Tiger Woods (1997), Jordan Spieth (2015) 18 holes 63 Nick Price (1986), Greg Norman (1996)

The cut The top 50 players (plus ties) qualify for the final 36 holes

Course winners taking part Bernhard Langer (twice), Larry Mize, Sandy Lyle, Fred Couples, Tiger Woods (five times), Jose Maria Olazabal (twice), Vijay Singh, Mike Weir, Phil Mickelson (three times), Zach Johnson, Charl Schwartzel, Bubba Watson (twice), Adam Scott, Jordan Spieth, Danny Willett, Patrick Reed

When to bet By noon on Thursday

When to watch Live on Sky Sports Main Event and Golf from 12.30pm Thursday

Time difference Georgia is five hours behind the UK and Ireland

Last week - Houston Open 1 C Ortiz (150-1), T2 H Matsuyama (20-1), D Johnson (15-2), 4 T Gooch (80-1), T5 B Koepka (22-1), S Straka (140-1)

Course overview Home of the Masters since 1934, Augusta is the only Major venue which is used every season, typically in the spring. The yardage increased in the early noughties in an attempt to combat technological advances. In 2001, the course measured 6,925 yards from the championship tees, but that had been extended to 7,270 yards by 2002, reaching 7,445 yards by 2006. This is the first time the Masters has been staged in November. Generous fairways and token rough (known only as the 'second-cut' by Augusta officials) encourage aggressive driving, but the course demands accurate iron-shots to the fastest greens in golf. Avoiding three-putts on the dancefloors is hugely challenging given the pace and severity of the undulations. Sound course management is required to find the easiest spots from which to putt. The two short par-fives on the back-nine, the 13th and 15th, are classic risk-reward holes where the Masters is often won or lost. Eagles are achievable, but greenside water-hazards are lurking to punish mishit approaches.

Story of last year Tiger Woods produced a vintage iron-play performance to claim his fifth Masters title and his 15th Major victory. Long-time leader, Francesco Molinari, found the greenside water hazard with his approach to the 12th hole on Sunday - and Woods took advantage. He topped the greens in regulation statistics for the week on his way to a one-shot success over Xander Schauffele, Brooks Koepka and Dustin Johnson.

Weather forecast Thundery showers on Tuesday and Wednesday are set to drench the course, with further storms expected on Thursday, when suspensions in play seem inevitable. Clear conditions are anticipated for Friday, Saturday and Sunday, with only gentle breezes throughout the event. Temperatures in the mid-20s throughout.

Type of player suited to the challenge Length off the tee is a significant advantage, particularly with extremely soft fairways for this edition. Only two of the last 19 Masters have been won by a short-hitter (Mike Weir in 2003 and Zach Johnson in 2007). Powerhouses are able to attack the small targets with loft in hand. Accurate approaches are the key to success.

Key attribute Accuracy

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