Steve Palmer's Andalucia Masters predictions, best bets, free golf tips

Golf tips, best bets and player analysis for the Andalucia Masters at Valderrama on the European Tour.

Where to watch

Live on Sky Sports Golf from 11am Thursday

Best bets

Marcus Kinhult
2.5pts each-way 33-1 Sky Bet

Victor Perez
2pts each-way 33-1 Betfair, Paddy Power

Jorge Campillo
2pts each-way 33-1 Sky Bet

Jason Scrivener
1.5pts each-way 35-1 Ladbrokes

The UK Swing is over and the European Tour has moved to Spain for the Estrella Damm N.A. Andalucia Masters – an intriguing event for which bookmakers have been struggling to separate the market principals. Punters awoke on Tuesday morning to 14-1 co-favourites of five.

Rasmus Hojgaard, the brilliant Danish teenager who won the UK Championship on Sunday, tops most lists and can be be expected to progress into one of the best players in Europe. Two victories in just 15 European Tour starts is a magnificent start to life on the circuit, but a Valderrama debut this week could bring an end to his hot streak.

Valderrama is a tough track in calm conditions, but is set to be even more challenging this week with winds blowing throughout. Thomas Detry and Bernd Wiesberger may not have the patience for the assignment, while Andy Sullivan is probably too loose off the tee. Martin Kaymer is best suited of the market leaders, but the German squandered a golden chance of success at The Belfry on Sunday and is winless since the 2014 US Open.

Steve Palmer's top tip

Marcus Kinhult 33-1

Valderrama should take no prisoners this week, with a consistent breeze blowing, and keeping your scorecard as clean as possible is the mission for the title hopefuls. Marcus Kinhult looks better equipped than most to avoid trouble.

Kinhult, a tidy operator who finds plenty of fairways, can secure safe passage along this tree-lined brute. And the Swede possesses the touch on and around the greens to recover when inevitably missing some of the tiny Valderrama targets.

Kinhult quickly showed a liking for Spain in 2017, finishing fourth and fifth in two Nordic League events there, then sixth and third in two Spanish Challenge Tour gatherings. Those efforts came after he won a European Tour card in Girona at the 2015 Q School when still an amateur.

As for Valderrama, he finished 42nd on debut in 2016 when ranked outside the world's top 1,000, then 22nd in 2018. Last year he failed to settle in the marquee group alongside Sergio Garcia and Matt Fitzpatrick, carding a pair of 75s, but much better can be expected this time.

Kinhult has gone close to winning a $2.5m cheque in the Nedbank Challenge since his last trip to Spain - he lost a playoff to Tommy Fleetwood - and his last two UK Swing outings have been hugely encouraging. The 24-year-old has got his scheduling spot-on and 15th place in the Wales Open was followed by 13th at The Belfry.

The breeze in the forecast is of no concern to the 2019 British Masters champion, who won the Lytham Trophy by eight shots as an amateur, and the prodigy should go close to a second European Tour title on Sunday.

Next best bet

Victor Perez 33-1

Starting life on the PGA Tour without your usual caddie is a far from ideal scenario and it is understandable that Victor Perez has struggled in the States post-lockdown. He had no knowledge of the venues and failed to make an impact until finishing 22nd in the US PGA Championship last month.

That Harding Park performance was fantastic though - four rounds of par or better on his Major debut - and the Frenchman is a huge threat if bringing that game to Valderrama. A poor set of tee-times contributed to a missed cut on the mark at The Belfry in his only UK Swing outing and much better seems on the cards in Sotogrande if he is given a fair crack of the whip by the weather gods.

Perez turns 28 on tournament-eve and this greens in regulation machine, whose short-game is improving, may have a trophy to celebrate with on Sunday. He won in Spain on the Alps Tour in 2016, then on the Challenge Tour in 2017, and the Dunhill Links champion could complete a Spanish hat-trick this week. He led after round one on his Valderrama debut last year as a rookie maiden, finishing 26th, and the extreme long-game examination suits him. Experienced caddie JP Fitzgerald is back on the bag.

Other selections

Jorge Campillo 33-1

Jason Scrivener 35-1

If Kinhult got his post-lockdown schedule perfect, Jorge Campillo may have done the opposite, making his first start in the US PGA and becoming a lamb to the Harding Park slaughter. A Celtic Classic missed cut followed after his trek back across the Atlantic, but the Spaniard then shook off the rust for eighth place in the Wales Open.

Campillo followed with seventh spot at The Belfry and the two-time European Tour champ seems a massive runner on home turf this week at a track which suits. In 2018, he was one under par with a round to go, and a level-par final round would have been enough for 16th place. Bad weather meant a Monday finish was coming, though, and Campillo decided to disqualify himself so he could catch his flight to China for the following week's WGC-HSBC Champions.

Last year, Campillo finished 15th, playing with Jon Rahm for two days, and the more low-key nature of this spectator-free edition should suit the mild-mannered Madrid-based 34-year-old.

The most dangerous maiden may well be Jason Scrivener, who won by six shots on the Australasian Tour in 2017. He was five under par for the weekend at Celtic Manor in his last outing, boasting form figures of 14-14-8 from his last three tournaments, which marry nicely to solid Valderrama results of 27-22-26.

Players to note

Joost Luiten
The Dutchman has been shaky in contention post-lockdown, but Valderrama form figures of 2-2-11-20 must be respected.

Wade Ormsby
The accurate Aussie, who turned 40 in lockdown and made a solid return to action last week, is well suited to the demands of Valderrama and finished fifth in 2017.

Valderrama course guide

Course Real Club Valderrama, Sotogrande, Spain
Prize money €1.25m (€196,690 to the winner)
Length 7,001 yards
Par 71
Field 132
Course records- 72 holes 272 Sergio Garcia (2017) 18 holes 62 Bernhard Langer (1994)

Course winner taking part Soren Kjeldsen

When to bet By 7.05am Thursday

When to watch Live on Sky Sports Golf from 11am Thursday

Time difference Spain is one hour ahead of the UK and Ireland

Last week - UK Championship 1 R Hojgaard (14-1), 2 J Walters (400-1), T3 B Hebert (66-1), M Kaymer (25-1), T5 C Howie (250-1), B Wiesberger (20-1)

Course type Parkland

Course overview Valderrama is one of the iconic courses of the world. It was the traditional venue for the European Tour's traditional season-closer, the Volvo Masters, which it staged from 1988 to 1996, then from 2002 to 2008. The Andalucia Masters was created in 2010 to restore Valderrama to the schedule, then it was played again in 2011, 2017, 2018 and 2019, with Sergio Garcia emerging triumphant in three of those last four editions. The 1997 Ryder Cup was played on this course, as well as the 1999 and 2000 WGC-AmEx Championship, and the 2016 Spanish Open. Valderrama, designed by Robert Trent Senior and opened in 1974, is one of the tightest tracks in Europe, with thin, tree-lined fairways flanked by heavy rough. Overhanging trees can impact approach shots, even from the fairways. Small, undulating greens add to the challenge and one over par for 72 holes was enough to top the leaderboard in the Spanish Open there. There are only three par-fives (fourth, 11th and 17th). The layout is typically in pristine condition.

Story of last year Christiaan Bezuidenhout bravely fended off an army of Spaniards which included Jon Rahm – the South African claiming his maiden European Tour title by a six-shot margin.

Weather forecast Sunny and breezy for all four days, with the winds set to peak on Sunday.

Type of player suited to the challenge Valderrama is an extreme test of tee-to-green precision. The penalties for straying off line are severe. The venue is just a few miles from the coast, so flat-calm days are a rarity, and this week seems set to be consistently windy. Support accurate players with the ability to grind out plenty of pars.

Key attribute Accuracy

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