Wales v Italy predictions and rugby union tips: Value to be found for home win

Free rugby tips, best bets and analysis for Wales v Italy in the Six Nations.

Where to watch

BBC One & S4C, 2.15pm Saturday

Best bet

Wales to win by 21 to 30 points
1pt 16-5 Betfair, Paddy Power

Match preview

Defending champions Wales were handed a tough task to retain their Six Nations crown, with trips to Dublin and Twickenham plus a host of key players out, but they have the chance to at least sign off in style against Italy.

The Azzurri's tournament struggles have been well documented this year but there were bright spots in last week's 33-22 defeat to Scotland, when they scored three tries having managed just one in their previous three games.

That was in Rome, though, and Wales in Cardiff ought to be a much tougher proposition, especially with some big names back for the hosts who will look to take out their frustrations at winning just one of four matches.

After a poor start at Twickenham Wales were the better side in the second half, scoring three tries to England's one, while they had a chance to snatch what had looked an unlikely victory against tournament leaders France last week.

Josh Navidi and Taulupe Faletau have returned to the Wales pack as the tournament has unfolded, but the big news this week is that Alun Wyn Jones is fit to win an astonishing 150th cap. There's a milestone too for fly-half Dan Biggar, who will win a 100th cap.

But coach Wayne Pivac has also shuffled his backline, giving starts to Uilisi Halaholo, Johnny McNicholl and Louis Rees-Zammit. So there may be a lack of fluency, especially at the start.

Italy are given a handicap start of up to 29 points, and although Wales have registered home wins by 42, 24 and 53 points on Italy's last three visits, they may struggle to hit those heights, and backing a win by 21 to 30 points may offer more value at a bigger price. Three of Wales's last six home victories against the Azzurri have fallen in that bracket.

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