Wales v France predictions: Les Bleus can silence the Cardiff crowd

Free rugby tips, best bets and analysis for Wales v France in the Six Nations on Friday.

Where to watch

BBC One & S4C, 8pm Friday

Best bet

France to win by one to 12 points
2pts 2-1 Betfair

Match preview

Old inconsistent, mercurial, disaster-prone France are out, new disciplined, structured, organised France are in, and there's no better stage on which to show that the French revolution is working than a clash with Wales.

It's all happened for Les Bleus under head coach Fabien Galthie, who took over in 2020 along with among others ex-Wales defence coach Shaun Edwards, and nothing better illustrates the flaky France of the past than their two matches against Wales just a year before.

The 2019 Six Nations opened in Paris, where Wales found themselves 16-0 down at half-time then staged a record fightback to win 24-19.

That October the teams met again, in the quarter-finals of the Rugby World Cup. This time Wales were 19-10 down at the break before France were reduced to 14 men and lost 20-19.

Since then, with Galthie at the helm, France have won three out of three against Wales - twice in the Six Nations by margins of four and two points, and once by a more comfortable 38-21 scoreline in the 2020 Autumn Nations Cup.

This year Les Bleus look to have put it all together, combining a solid set-piece foundation, hard-working defence, immense physicality plus real pace and danger in the backs to record three impressive victories.

Wales, meanwhile, have lost to Ireland and England, while they edged out Scotland by three points, and the upshot is they are given a ten-point handicap start, the biggest they have received for a Six Nations home match since 2006, again against France.

France have won on five of their last ten Six Nations trips to Cardiff, including the most recent, but each time by a single-figure margin, and while the odds also reflect Wales's injury problems, there are signs they could put up more of a fight.

Number eight Taulupe Faletau returned to the back row against England, Josh Navidi is also back for this clash, and lock Seb Davies completes the back row with a switch to flanker as Wales look to boost the physicality of their pack.

Wales will need more from their backs but after a shaky first half at Twickenham they outscored England three tries to one and they will want to carry the energy and purpose they showed then into this encounter.

The Cardiff crowd is a huge factor in Wales's favour, even with the stadium roof open, and Wales have not suffered a home defeat by more than ten points in this tournament since Grand Slam-chasing England visited in their World Cup-winning year of 2003.

France definitely hold the aces, but at the prices a narrow win looks the best bet.

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