Six Nations winner predictions, betting tips & team-by-team guide

Betting preview, tips & analysis for the Six Nations, which starts when Italy host France at 2.15pm Saturday.

Best bet

Ireland to win Six Nations
2pts 7-2 general

The Six Nations is always a tough tournament to assess, with its short, unforgiving format where one slip can blow a team's title chances. And it has been made even harder this year with the uncertainty over preparations and limited form from last year.

Holders England are favourites ahead of France, who were edged into second on points difference. But this doesn't look a year to be relying on short-priced contenders and there could be better value further down the list.

Here's how the table could shape up after the final round on March 20.

1 Ireland

Ireland's first year under Andy Farrell was a mixture of disappointing defeats and unconvincing victories, but they have won three times in the last seven years and still have a lot going for them.

They have a settled squad and depth in positions where injuries have hit - such as in the back row where Caelan Doris has been ruled out -but the list of names to fill those positions includes CJ Stander, Peter O'Mahony, Rhys Ruddock, Will Connors and Josh Van Der Flier.

Farrell is yet to name his team for Sunday's opener against Wales but it will be a surprise if Conor Murray and Jonathan Sexton are not combined again as one of the most seasoned half-back combinations with the added incentive of playing for Lions places.

It remains to be seen what effect the lack of crowds will have on home advantage, but home games against England and France, the top two in the betting, must be a plus, while their visit to Cardiff has become less intimidating.

Ireland head to the Principality Stadium in their opener - their last victory there came in 2013 but Wales are going through a poor run of form and were beaten 32-9 in Dublin in the Autumn Nations Cup.

2 France

A lot was expected of Les Bleus in 2020 and they delivered up to a point, kicking off with a win over England, finishing Six Nations runners-up on points difference and narrowly losing the Autumn Nations Cup final.

Trips to Twickenham and Dublin have to be overcome but they kick off with Italy away which should allow them to move through the gears.

The influence of Shaun Edwards as part of Galthie's coaching team has been evident in a new-found discipline and defensive steel.

Losing fly-half Romain Ntamack, the tournament's top pointscorer last year, is a blow. But Mathieu Jalibert had been identified as the rising star at number ten before Ntamack's emergence, and the fact that Toulouse scrum-half Antoine Dupont is favourite to be named Player of the Tournament speaks volumes for his talent.

3 England

The holders enjoyed a successful 2020, winning the Six Nations and Autumn Nations Cup and suffering just one defeat, but they often failed to deliver the kind of dominant displays their squad strength would lead you to expect.

Big wins over Italy and Georgia were just below the handicap mark, they beat Ireland and Wales twice plus Scotland once but on each occasion the margin was 12 points or fewer, and they needed a last-gasp try against a severely weakened French team to take the Autumn Nations Cup final to extra-time before winning it.

There has been more tinkering in selection, especially in the backline where Jones has dropped the dual-playmaker approach and named Owen Farrell at fly-half to face Scotland in round one, with Ollie Lawrence and Henry Slade in midfield.

England haven't beaten both Ireland and Wales away since 2003 in the Clive Woodward era, and just as there are questions to be answered over home advantage, it's hard to know how ready England's big Saracens contingent will be having played no competitive matches since September.

4 Scotland

There's lot to like about this Scottish team but breaking into the top half may be beyond them this year.

After years of heavy defeats, low scoring returns and perennial wooden-spoon battles with Italy, the Scots found a real cutting edge under Vern Cotter. With fly-half Finn Russell pulling the strings and a wealth of pace out wide, they went from single-figure try tallies in the first half of the decade to hitting a record 14 in 2017 and 2019.

Last year they were back down to seven in five games, but they were also the only team to beat France in the tournament, and their two defeats came by seven points while they finished with a rare away scalp, beating Wales 14-10.

Low-scoring scraps were the theme of their 2020 tournament, suggesting there is a new steel and doggedness to the side, although they finished up with a 31-16 defeat to Ireland in the Autumn Nations Cup, their heaviest loss of the year, and they cannot afford to start slowly against England.

5 Wales

It's fair to say Wales have struggled for form over the last 12 months, and although they have stood out over the past decade as team who bounce back spectacularly from adversity, that was all achieved with Warren Gatland at the helm.

New man Wayne Pivac arrived with the intention of changing the style of play to a more open game but he has yet to show he can get a talented and cohesive group of players to perform.

Wales registered just three wins in ten games in 2020 - against Italy twice and tier-two Georgia, and if any team is going to be adversely affected by playing games in empty stadiums it will probably be Wales. Certainly there won't be the same fear factor for teams entering what is traditionally a Cardiff cauldron.

Winger Josh Adams, top tryscorer at the 2019 Rugby World Cup, is a significant absence for the first round.

6 Italy

Backing Italy to finish bottom is probably the safest bet you can have this year, as odds of 1-10 will tell you.

A team who haven't registered a win in the tournament since 2015 are now also a team in transition, with just four players in their 32-man squad on more than 30 caps, while Wasps full-back Matteo Minozzi has opted not to play in the tournament.

They suffered eight defeats out of eight in 2020 - six of them by 20 points or more while two clashes with Scotland were lost 17-0 and 28-17.

Italian clubs have not shown up in the Pro14 this year - Benetton, quarter-finalists in 2018-19, have lost all ten games this season while Zebre have lost eight of 11.

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