Six Nations tournament specials and top tryscorer predictions

When to bet

Tournament starts 2.15pm Saturday

Best bets

Scotland top tryscoring nation
1pt 10-1 bet365

Over 15.5 yellow cards
3pts 4-5 bet365

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Six Nations specials

The Six Nations top tryscorer market is wide open, and appears harder to call than ever. The number of tries scored in the tournament has steadily risen - ten years ago there were just 37, last year 73 - but teams are sharing out their scores within their ranks.

Last year three players topped the charts with three each. They were French pair Damian Penaud - this year’s favourite - and Gabin Villiere plus Ireland’s James Lowe.

Four other Ireland players weighed in with two apiece to help take their team total to 24, while three French players also bagged braces.

The waters are further muddied by the absence or unavailability of some key contenders. England’s Jonny May was not included in Steve Borthwick’s initial squad, Wales whizz-kid Louis Rees-Zammit and Scotland’s Darcy Graham, who ended last year with a hat-trick against Argentina, are both set to miss the first two rounds through injury.

However, while the player market looks hard to crack, there may be some value in the betting on which team scores most tries.

Ireland led the way last year with 24, a total not seen for 20 years, and they have the firepower to go big again. They are 13-8 favourites ahead of France, but the price that stands out is the 10-1 about Scotland.

The Scots crossed for 11 tries last year but do their best work at home, and the last time they had three home fixtures in 2021 their total was 18, just two shy of Wales’s winning figure of 20.

They also showed plenty of attacking intent in the autumn, scoring 15 tries in their four Tests, including eight against Argentina, and in every game they were on the board inside the first 15 minutes.

It’s even money with bet365 that there are more than 80 tries in the tournament, a line that has been passed just once, while the total points line is set at 685.5.

Red cards are a big talking point in the game, and it’s 11-10 that we see more than the two that were brandished last year. Total yellow cards are pitched at 15.5 - there were just six in last year’s tournament but last autumn’s 17 internationals featuring the Six Nations contenders produced a total of 29 sin-binnings plus three red cards. 

Southern hemisphere referees, renowned for their tight policing of the breakdown, take charge of seven games this year and it would be no surprise to see a high number of yellows shown.

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