Six Nations: High-stakes clashes could put tries at a premium

Under 75.5 tournament tries

There’s a wide discrepancy in firms’ total-tries line, and ­Betfair and Paddy Power may have pushed it too high.

Last year’s tally of 78 was a ten-year high, and the figure has been creeping up.

But this year’s tournament looks set to be the tightest for years and some high-stakes contests early on could set the tone for a hard-fought ­campaign.

In the opening rounds teams are often still finding their feet and the emphasis on defence is at its strongest. The priority is simply to win and stay in the hunt – the later rounds are when teams look at bonus points and points-difference.

The opening night pits Wales against France, while on ­Saturday Ireland host England, two fixtures that have been low-scoring in past years, while even though Scotland are 25-point favourites against Italy at Murrayfield, the Azzurri know how to put up a fight.

Wales and Ireland will travel to Edinburgh determined to keep a lid on Scotland’s free-running attack, and there are few fixtures that standout as potential blowouts.

Recommendation
Under 75.5 tournament tries
3pts 10-11 Betfair

Over 10.5 tournament yellow cards

Every year as a new refereeing crackdown is announced at
the start of the season, the ­suspicion is floated that officals will suddenly unleash a volley of cards at the Six Nations.

It rarely comes to pass and going under the cards has long been the key to profit.

But just maybe this is the year to give in and accept there are going to be cards.

Last year there were seven, the first coming in the 80th minute of the first match of round three.

But in the club game this season the tackle area has come under greater scrutiny and players still seem to be getting to grips with the new directives.

One theory for the relatively low make-up in the Six Nations is that players are more focused on disciplined, knowing that one indiscretion can be so costly at this level.

And it may be that referees give more leeway under the international spotlight, as Owen Farrell found to his favour in the autumn international against South Africa.

But at domestic and European level more and more yellow cards have been the result of mistimed rather than malicious tackles and players are going through a period of adjustment.

Referees also sometimes like to even things out so once one player has been carded, there’s a good chance of a second for the opposition.

Recommendation
Over 10.5 yellow cards
2pts 4-5 Sky Bet

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