Scotland v Italy: Six Nations predictions and rugby union tips

Free rugby tips, best bets and analysis for Scotland v Italy in the Six Nations.

Where to watch

BBC1, 2.15pm Saturday

Best bet

Italy +27
2pts 10-11 Betfair, Paddy Power

Match preview

It’s supposed to be the final round of the Six Nations on Saturday, but Scotland still have a date with France next Friday and a new-look side may struggle to record a runaway victory over bottom side Italy at Murrayfield.

Head coach Gregor Townsend has made seven changes to the side pipped by Ireland last weekend but the one that stands out most is the selection of skipper Stuart Hogg at fly-half.

It will be full-back Hogg’s first start for Scotland in the number ten shirt, although he has filled the role for the Lions. Regular starter Finn Russell is sidelined after a concussion while Edinburgh’s Jaco van der Walt is on the bench.

Completing an unfamiliar half-back partnership is scrum-half Scott Steele, who has been third choice behind Danny Care and Martin Landajo at Harlequins this season and has filled in on the wing and in the back row from the bench during this year's Six Nations.

It’s all change in the second row too with Jonny Gray and Scott Cummings both injured and it’s not hard to see this much-changed team being slow to get into gear.

There are a number of issues at work - injuries, a six-day turnaround before facing France and a desire to try new combinations - but they all add up to make beating a handicap in the high 20s seem a tough ask. This looks a classic case of a team being handed a number of how many points bookmakers expect them to win by but have no interest in how, or by how much, they win.

Italy have been coming under increasing fire for their poor Six Nations record, which now stands at 31 consecutive defeats, but they won’t need reminding where their last victory in the tournament came - at Murrayfield in 2015.

Scotland ended that year with the wooden spoon, and although it’s easy to say they have come on leaps and bounds since then, they have yet to prove they can put together any consistency over 80 minutes, let alone a whole campaign.

Italy are clearly struggling to justify their position in a tier-one competition, regardless of whether any nation is up to taking their place. They have lost their four matches this year by 40, 23, 38 and 41 points, and have already shipped 26 tries in four matches, one more than they did in the entire tournament last year.

But coach Franco Smith is keeping faith with his young and committed team, and while scoring has been a problem - they have averaged 11 points per game - even that return would leave Scotland needing to score nearly 40 to cover the handicap and the Azzurri have shown enough attacking intent and creativity to suggest they can make more of a mark at Murrayfield.

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