Scotland v Ireland: Six Nations predictions, where to watch and free tip

Free rugby tips, best bets and analysis for Scotland v Ireland in the Six Nations.

Where to watch

BBC1 & Virgin Media One, 3pm Sunday

Best bet

Ireland to win by one to 12 points
1pt 7-4 Betfair & Betfred

Match preview

In the last couple of years Ireland have played Scotland home and away in the Six Nations, in a Rugby World Cup pool match in Japan, and most recently in the Autumn Nations Cup - and they've won the lot.

Indeed, the Irish have won ten of their last 11 meetings with Scotland in all competitions and yet bookmakers have set the handicap at just two or three points, in Ireland's favour.

That's a line Ireland have covered in each of their last five victories over Scotland - only one of which was at Murrayfield - and the most recent meeting ended in a convincing 31-16 success in the Autumn Nations Cup.

That result was taken by many to suggest Scotland still had a way to go to challenge for Six Nations honours, so why should this clash be closer?

Well, of course the story changes pretty quickly even in the space of a few months, and in this year's Six Nations Scotland hit the headlines for their opening win over England before going down to Wales in a match where they led 17-3 and lost by a single point after a second-half red card.

Ireland's only win in three games has come against bottom side Italy, and although they too can count themselves unfortunate with a red card and key injuries, of more concern to their fans has been a lack of attacking threat.

A game based on possession has seen Ireland take few chances and the threat of rain in Edinburgh doesn't promise a feast of open play.

Ireland ran in six tries against Italy last time - three from their backs and three from their back row - and comfortably covered the handicap in a 48-10 win.

But fly-half Johnny Sexton made it clear this week that the team are concerned only with playing the right game for the conditions and getting a win, not going all out to entertain, and his regular half-back partner Conor Murray, who is such a creative spark at nine, is still missing through injury.

The last three meetings between these two in the Six Nations have all produced fewer than 40 points and four of the last five meetings in this tournament have been decided by ten points or fewer.

So another narrow win looks on the cards and Ireland get the nod, not just because their history of success but because of the focus they look set to bring to their gameplan which can shut down Scotland's expansive ambitions.

For all their encouraging play against Wales, Scotland conceded 11 penalties in that match and made 13 handling errors, and they may be slow into their stride after a month off since that fixture.

Scotland have scored 35 points in their two matches, with all but ten coming in the second half, and the longer Ireland can keep a lid on them, the greater their chance of edging victory.

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