Italy v Scotland predictions & rugby union tips: Scots to run away with Rome win

Free rugby tips, best bets and analysis for Italy v Scotland in the Six Nations on Saturday.

Where to watch

ITV, 2.15pm Saturday

Best bet

Scotland -20
2pts Evs Coral

Match preview

Italy's last win in the Six Nations came at home to Scotland - but that was seven years ago and a young Azzurri side simply don't look to have what it takes to end a run of 35 tournament defeats.

And if those numbers count against them this weekend, there are a few more that stand out a mile. Italy have scored just 16 points in three matches this year, they have been outscored by 19 tries to one, they have only two players in their starting line-up with more than 20 caps - is it any wonder Scotland are the shortest price they have ever been for a Six Nations away match?

Scotland have been handed a handicap of 20 points to cover, but the last four visitors to Rome have covered bigger lines with some ease, and before that England fell just one point short of their target in a 34-5 success.

Rewind one more game to when Scotland last visited Rome giving up seven points on the handicap - they ran out 17-0 winners, and given their attacking thrust, even without suspended winger Duhan van der Merwe, the Scots look good to eclipse that score.

True, Scotland first have to score more than 20 points, something they have not yet done in this year's Six Nations. But they bagged two tries against England and again in their defeat to France last week, and Italy offer nothing like the defensive organisation of those two sides.

When the Scots have gone on the front foot they have looked threatening, but the same can't be said of Italy and their failure to score points is not a new thing - it's 17 matches and more than two years since they last reached the 20-point mark.

This is a fixture that has very much swung in Scotland's favour since the days of dour Wooden Spoon deciders. In their first eight tournament trips to Rome, Scotland amassed a total of ten tries - they have doubled that tally in the last three.

Van der Merwe's absence reduces their cutting edge but replacement Kyle Steyn made a great impact on his first start for Scotland in October, bagging four tries in a 60-14 win over Tonga. This is another chance for him to catch the eye against weaker opposition.

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