Italy v France predictions and rugby union tips: Azzurri to go down swinging

Where to watch

ITV1, 3pm Sunday

Best bet

Over 14.5 Italy points
2pts 20-23 Betfair

France to win the first half by one to eight points
1pt 11-5 bet365

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Match preview 

One of the puzzles facing punters heading into this year’s Six Nations is determining whether Italy are actually improving or if it’s another false dawn for the Azzurri. 

The bookmakers have their doubts, giving Italy a start in the low-20s on the handicap for the visit of a red-hot France side to Rome, where the hosts haven’t won a Six Nations game in a decade.

But there is evidence to suggest that Kieran Crowley is building a competitive team with top-level talents such as Ange Capuozzo and Paolo Garbisi graduating from a successful Under-20 set-up. 

Italy ended 2022 by winning five of their last seven games, a run that started when they snapped a 36-match Six Nations winless run with victory in Wales and also included notable triumphs over Australia and Samoa.

They finished the year on a bit of a downer when they were crushed 63-21 by South Africa, a reminder that Italy still have a way to go in their development, but Crowley has his team playing with confidence and a sense of freedom rarely seen from the Azzurri.

Italy are willing to have a go, scoring at least 17 points in each of their last eight Tests, and even though they are without inspirational fly-half Garbisi for the France game, they have the talent and belief to surpass a points line of 14.5.

Cracks appeared in the formidable French defence in the autumn and, while they overcame those issues to extend their longest-ever winning run to 13 matches, there may be a few gaps in Les Bleus’ line for Italy to exploit.

That is not to say that France’s unbeaten run will come under serious threat. Even with some key players missing through injury, there is far too much talent in the ranks of last year’s Grand Slam winners for punters to consider backing an upset. 

A bonus-point win will be the expectation for France to start their Six Nations title defence but the pattern of this fixture, and of Italy’s recent matches, suggests the home side won’t be far away at the interval.

Even in the heavy loss to South Africa, Italy trailed by only five points at half-time while France’s advantage at the break has been in single figures on five of their last six trips to Rome.

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